Preseason Blog - March 14, 2008
Curt Schilling - We all knew it was coming, but seeing Curt Schilling's name next to the 60-day DL list made it very real for Red Sox fans. The Sox made it official yesterday after Schilling showed up to spring training this year with a bum-shoulder. Looking ahead, the best case scenario would be for Schilling to be ready by the All-Star break, but the last thing the Sox will want to do is rush the old guy back to the mound. Obviously you should stay away from Schilling from a fantasy standpoint unless you want to make him one of your last picks and then stash him away in an open DL spot.
Scott Kazmir - For a guy who logged 215 innings last year, early season elbow strains make me nervous. But Kazmir threw 33 pitches off the mound (5 sliders, 5 changeups, the rest fastballs) and said he felt pretty good afterward. Kaz will gradually increase his duty, starting with a 1-inning stint on Sunday, then a 3-inning outing, etc. He still could be ready for opening day, but on draft day, if I have the choice, I might go with healthier strikeout options from a similar pitching tier. No doubt its tough to find another guy with such an impressive K/I (posted the best in the AL with a 1.16), but guys like and Justin Verlander and Roy Oswalt are forecasted to post similar total strikeout numbers over the course of the season with similar ADP's of 6.0-7.0.
BJ Ryan - BJ is scheduled to make his first appearance of the spring today to test out that elbow ligament that was surgically repaired last year. So far, so good for Ryan's attempt to return to the 9th-inning role in Toronto. He's had successful simulated games and bullpen sessions, so this should be a good test for him to see how close he is to be ready for opening day. Ryan is certainly a late-round gamble, as his health will be a big question mark early in the season. We still have him listed for 25+ saves, but I would be ready to grab Jeremy Accardo (again) just in case something goes wrong. Accardo did a great job taking over the closer job last year, recording 30 saves with a 1.12 WHIP and 2.15 ERA in 67 IP. He would likely be the go-to-guy again if Ryan can't do the job.
Kyle Lohse - Kyle Lohse finally got a job, joining the weak staff of the St. Louis Cardinals for a 1-year, $4.25 million contract (about $500k per win based on 2007 actual results). Lohse is getting a late start, so he may not be fully ready for opening day. Either way, his numbers aren't anything to get excited about unless you're in NL-only leagues. His K/9 averages about 5.5, his WHIP is 1.40+, and you'll be lucky to see him post and ERA sub-4.50 (posted a 4.18 ERA in 2003 in his best season).
Ryan Theriot - Manager Lou Piniella shuffled the Cubs lineup (for at least the 3rd time this season), moving The Riot to the lead-off spot, Alfonoso Soriano from lead-off to #2, and dropping Kosuke Fukodome from #2 to #5. Piniella said the main reason is to protect Soriano from further injuring his hamstring and quadriceps (both were strained in 2007). We have Theriot projected at a .294 average, 35 SB, and 83 runs, but this move could have some upside in those three figures, especially SB. He posted an unlucky BHIPx in '07 of just .239 compared to an average of .266 and in 537 AB, managed to swipe 28 bases in 32 attempts. My bullish view on Theriot doesn't bump him into draft-consideration in most vanilla leagues (unless you're really desperate for steals out of the SS slot and guys like Julio Lugo have already been taken), but he is slowly moving up my NL-only list. Of course, this could all change if the Brian Roberts trade ever gets done, but for now, Theriot is leadoff.
Matt Garza - Garza might be another year or so away from a huge breakout year, but you should definitely keep an eye on him if he starts to fall in drafts. Posting an average ADP of 19.0+, Garza recorded a 1.54 WHIP and 3.69 ERA in 83 IP with the Twins last year. He has been outstanding thus far in spring training with the Rays, pitching back-to-back scoreless outings against the Red Sox and the Yankees and has posted a 1.93 ERA in three outings. Don't overpay for the former first-round pick and remember he's pitching the AL East for the Rays. However, his keeper value is unquestionable and it is very realistic for him to post double-digit win totals and 150 K's at a cheap fantasy price.
Chipper Jones - Chipper continues to tear it up in pre-season games, going 9-for-18 in eight games with two doubles and four RBI. The Braves are taking it slow with Chipper to make sure he starts the season healthy. Jones recorded more than 500 AB in 2007 for the first time since 2003, hitting .337 with 29 HR, 102 RBI, and 108 runs scored. That was also the first time he broke the 100-mark in RBIs and Runs since '03 as well. But at 35 and with a history of injuries (especially to his feet), we have him dipping back below 500 AB and playing only ~130 games. With a deep 3B position this season, I'm steering clear of Chipper unless he drops significantly below his ADP of 5.12.
Travis Hafner - Does Hafner have 1B eligibility in your league with 11 games played at 1B in 2007? Its not a small question. Hafner is falling into the 4th & 5th rounds in mixed leagues, because of one "lackluster" season last year that included 80 runs, 100 RBI, and 24 HR in 545 AB for a HR/AB of 22.7. I expect a bounce-back year in the power department with an improvement in HR/AB to at least 17.0 and maybe even lower (good for 30+ HR if you're thinking cumulatively). With half-a-dozen 1B likely to be taken off the board in the first couple of rounds, Hafner can be a decent value pick if he starts to drop a little. We have him projected at a 0.75 FPI, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him break the 0.80 mark.
Bartolo Colon - Will Theo Epstein be heralded as a genius (again) by snatching Colon off the scrap-heap? Sure looked like that yesterday, as Colon hit 94 mph on the radar gun. He got into some trouble and gave up a dinger, but the control was good and the fastball was strong for the 2005 Cy Young Award winner. Of course, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here. Colon has only hurled 150 innings over the last two years and is a going-injury concern with chronic elbow and shoulder issues. If he manages to win the #5 spot in the Red Sox rotation, he becomes a last round, nothing-to-lose sleeper pick, but he still has some work to do before he gets to that point.
News Out of Yankees Camp
Mike Mussina - Moose finally had a decent spring outing, pitching 5 hitless/scoreless innings with two strikeouts and no walks against the Pirates on Thursday. He hurled 64 pitches with 64% coming as strikes. At 39, Yankees fans and fantasy owners alike are extremely bullish on the veteran starter going into the 2008 season. In 2007, he hurled 152 IP with a 5.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, but the last two months of the season tells the real story. In August & September, Moose posted a 5.92 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP to end the season (which included a brief stint in the bullpen because of his ineffectiveness). His K/9 dropped below 5.0 for those two months and his age really started to show. Mussina will be a pitch-and-ditch candidate throughout the season because of his run support and when the Yankees play weaker teams like the Royals or the Orioles. In general, his fantasy value has dropped WAY off the table with no rebound expected. AL-only consideration mostly, with 160 IP, 1.41 WHIP, 4.85 ERA (generous), 13 W, and 99 K's projected by Fantistics.
Position Battles - The Yanks have a logjam of players for three spots in the starting lineup - LF, 1B, and DH. The soap opera will likely be unsolved when Opening Day arrives in the Bronx, but Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi and Shelley Duncan are the main parties involved in the battle. Damon has already suffered from a bruised foot this spring, but is definitely in better shape than he was last year at this time. Godzilla is returning from off-season knee surgery, but chased down a ball in the LF corner yesterday with no problems. Reports have Giambi in "great shape," but his ability to field his position is always a question mark. And finally, Shelley Duncan's youth, enthusiasm, and, of course, right-handed power brings a different element to the other three veteran lefties. If you're making out the opening day lineup today, I think you see Damon starting in LF, Giambi at 1B, Hideki as the DH, and Duncan coming off the bench, but I think you'll see a season of manager Joe Girardi juggling the four around those three positions quite often.
News Out of White Sox Camp
Jose Contreras - Jose Contreras has shown a gradual decline since his first year in a White Sox uniform. His 3-year ERA progression has evolved from 3.61 in 2005, to 4.27, and 5.57 last year. WHIP shows the same positive slope, from 1.23, 1.27, and 1.56. Plotting K/9, 6.77, 6.15, and 5.38 reveals the same decline. However, he has had some decent preseason success, giving up just 3 ER in 10 IP (we'll see what he does today against the A's). He definitely won't have as bad of a season as last year. 17 losses is tough to duplicate and he reportedly has less off-season distractions this year than last year (he reportedly is in a better "mental" state with a new girlfriend and last year's messy divorce behind him - I don't have stats on that one, but supposedly his wife was awarded 5mph on his fastball and 4 inches on his sinker... just a rumor). Anything less than a 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and double-digit wins would be a a very good season for Contreras. AL-only consideration for sure.
2nd Base Position Battle - So who will be Orlando Cabrera's double-play partner up the middle? The three players in consideration for the opening day start are Juan Uribe, Alexei Ramirez and Danny Richar. Verteran Uribe is probably the easy pick for Ozzie Guillen to plug-in to the lineup to start the season, but prospect Richar could be the favorite to win the everyday job. Richar hit .230 with 6 HR and 30 runs in 187 AB last season and has some experience against big-league pitching, but has been slowed with back problems. In the minors last season, Richar hit .305 with an .869 OPS, 0.72 FPI, 13 HR, and 46 extra base hits in 400 AB. Cuban rookie Ramirez has fantastic natural ability and is typically a SS, raising flags to Guillen about the difficulty of switching positions with no experience against major league pitching. Time will tell how this plays out, but I think we'll see Richar playing daily by mid-season.
News out of Nationals Camp
Lastings Milledge - It should be interesting to see how well Lastings Milledge performs now that he is out of the NY spotlight and with an everyday job in Washington. I'm sure he will make plenty of headlines on and off the field throughout the year, which should put him on more fantasy radar screens. We have projected Milledge to hit .266 with 19 HR, 24 SB, 80 RBI, and 78 runs. Nobody truly knows how the new ballpark will play from a HR standpoint, but it wouldn't shock me to see Milledge end the season as a 25/25 guy, which would definitely make him a great value pick at the end of any draft. If you're left with an open OF spot in later rounds, Milledge may be a good upside sleeper pick.
The Injury Bug - With the exception of the Mets, the Nationals may be one of the most injured squads in spring training camp. Wily Mo Pena will join pitcher Shawn Hill, catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Rob Mackowiak and first baseman Dmitri Young as early-season injured Nats. Pena strained his left oblique taking batting practice on Wednesday and is expected to miss 2 weeks (and possibly the start of the season). Elijah Dukes, the former Tampa Bay Devil Ray, will take over LF duties for Pena while he recovers from the strain. The other aforementioned players continue to show improvement, with Young, recovering from a strained left side, playing in his first exhibition game yesterday. Mackowiak, recovering from an abdomen injury, hasn't returned to game-action, but is taking fielding progress. No timetable on his return. Lo Duca's left knee seems to be improving and he is expected to play on Saturday in his first spring training game against his former team, the Dodgers. Hill's right forearm is getting better and he's playing catch. If no pain persists, he will have a bullpen session over the weekend.
