The Masters of Inconsistency

The Masters of Inconsistency (Player Projections at Risk)

Last season we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup.

Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2007 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2007, is a recording of each player's 2007 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations).  Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.

Weekly Consistency Factor -  Worst of 2007
	Player Name	Tm	AB	Weekly 2007	%	2-3 Yr %
1	Jose Lopez	Sea	524	3	12%	19%
2	Dioner Navarro	TB	388	3	15%	30%
3	Nick Punto	Min	472	4	16%	31%
4	Josh Barfield	Cle	420	4	18%	29%
5	Pedro Feliz	Phi	557	5	20%	24%
6	Stephen Drew	Ari	543	5	20%	30%
7	Jason Kendall	Mil	466	5	22%	25%
8	Brian Schneider	NYN	408	5	23%	34%
9	Felipe Lopez	Was	603	6	23%	42%
10	Andruw Jones	LAN	572	6	23%	44%
11	Miguel Olivo	KC	452	5	25%	35%
12	Lyle Overbay	Tor	425	5	25%	40%
13	Craig Monroe	Min	392	5	25%	41%
14	Richie Sexson	Sea	434	5	25%	45%
15	Gerald Laird	Tex	407	5	25%	53%
16	Bill Hall	Mil	452	6	26%	42%
17	Casey Blake	Cle	588	7	27%	35%
18	Jay Payton	Bal	434	6	27%	38%
19	Juan Uribe	ChA	513	7	28%	33%
20	Vernon Wells	Tor	584	7	28%	42%
21	Omar Vizquel	SF	513	7	29%	36%
22	Ryan Church	NYN	470	7	29%	53%
23	Gary Matthews Jr.	LAA	516	7	30%	43%
24	Dan Johnson	Oak	416	6	31%	35%
25	Bengie Molina	SF	497	7	31%	47%
26	Ronny Paulino	Pit	457	7	32%	36%
27	Mark Ellis	Oak	583	8	32%	42%
28	Melky Cabrera	NYA	545	8	32%	35%
29	Shawn Green	N/A	446	7	32%	44%
30	Ronnie Belliard	Was	511	8	33%	40%
31	Jason Bay	Pit	538	8	33%	58%
32	Kevin Youkilis	Bos	528	8	33%	52%
33	Kevin Kouzmanoff	SD	484	8	33%	39%
34	Delmon Young	Min	645	9	33%	36%
35	Austin Kearns	Was	587	9	34%	43%
36	Aaron Hill	Tor	608	9	34%	40%
37	Jose Bautista	Pit	532	8	34%	32%
38	Jason Bartlett	TB	510	8	34%	36%
39	Brian McCann	Atl	504	8	35%	63%
40	Ray Durham	SF	464	8	35%	54%
41	Yuniesky Betancourt	Sea	536	9	35%	27%
42	Johnny Estrada	Was	442	7	35%	46%
43	Khalil Greene	SD	611	9	35%	36%
44	Andre Ethier	LAN	447	9	35%	43%
45	Jacque Jones	Det	453	8	36%	43%
46	Mike Cameron	Mil	571	9	36%	49%
47	Brandon Inge	Det	508	9	36%	36%
48	Alfredo Amezaga	Fla	400	8	36%	49%
49	Marcus Giles	Col	420	7	36%	41%
50	Adrian Beltre	Sea	595	9	36%	37%

As you can see, many of 2007's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise: Inconsistent players usually stay  inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus these players are at risk to post consistent yearly results.

We know what to expect from Brian Schneider on a year to year basis: basically lack luster fantasy output. However there are players such as Adrian Beltre, Brandon Inge, Khalil Greene, Johnny Estrada, Austin Kearns, Shawn Green, Gary Matthews Jr., Omar Vizquel, Vernon Wells, Bill Hall, Lyle Overbay, Jason Kendell, and Pedro Feliz who have posted solid fantasy production at different points in their careers. Expecting them to return to glory is the risk that we seek to avoid, especially on draft day.

Last season we pointed out 7 players who had a career or semi career season in 2006 and also have a poor 3 year record of consistency: Brandon Inge, Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, AJ Pierzynski, Mike Lowell.  Of these only Mike Lowell, posted another favorable season.

An example of some of the players we do expect to increase production this year, based on their past consistency include, Ray Durham, Brian McCann, and Jason Bay.

When considering Consistency Factor  both  injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator  on the Player Pages within the software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day.

I do want to point out that rookie players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.

Have a great day,

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

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