The Luck of the Bounce - BHIP%

Anthony A. Perri

Feb 25, 2008

The luck of the bounce - Balls Hit into Play Success %

Balls Hit into Play Success %: defined as the number of balls hit into play that are registered as hits against a pitcher. Much has been written on the correlation between balls hit into play and the pitcher’s ability to coax them in their favor. Similar to the research conducted by Voros McCracken, Fantistics internal analysis of the topic leads us to the following conclusion: Overall, pitchers do not have control over balls hit into play, as it is more a function of the batter's ability. However (in disagreement to the McCracken study), when you only consider the top echelon of hurlers, there is a significant correlation which indicates that some pitchers, particularly successful ones, do have influence over balls hit into play.

Hits allowed is a category which is directly tied to many major pitching categories including Wins, WHIP, & ERA. So understanding this indicator can be a valuable tool in forecasting success.

In our empirical analysis, we considered the top 30 pitchers (the criterion being that they must have a 4 year track record) whose Deserved Wins (QS *.74) were above 13 (we are basically taking the top 30 pitchers who have been around for at least 4 years), the results show a fairly strong 3 year correlation (.31, .58, .37). However, when taken as a whole (top 150 pitchers) the correlation is barely existent (.18, .12, .08).

So what does this all mean? If we can identify the pitchers who do not have control over balls hit into play (inconsistent yearly BHIP% results) then we can extrapolate which pitchers were stricken by bad luck or good luck in the most recent season. Using this information, along with the law of averages, we can then predict which pitchers are due for a rebound/drop the following season. Additionally, by identifying pitchers who have shown a consistent BHIP% in the past, extreme deviations in the most recent year could indicate an erosion of skills, injury, or conversely a lucky period. The average BHIP% given up by pitchers is .294 (given up by the top 130 starters)

As an example, Chris Capuano's BHIP% jumped to .324 in 2007 after sitting below league average in 2006 (.292), 2005 (.267), 2004 (.292). At the same time his K/Inning ratio was within his normal range, an indication that Capuano was healthly in his cumulative starts. Therefore Capuano was likely a victim of bad luck on balls hit into play. This is one of the reasons we are expecting Chris Capuano to have a bounce back season in 2008.

The Chart below represents the pitchers who pitched over 120 innings in 2007 and had a significantly higher than average BHIP%. Shown are the 2007 BHIP, 3 Year BHIP, Strikeout Per Inning rate (KI) in 2007, and Strikeout Per Inning rate (KI) over the last 3 years. We show the KI rates as a reference point. The premise: If a pitcher had a High Rate of successful Balls hit into play (Singles, Doubles, Triples agasint), and his Strikeout rate is off significantly, then the pitcher may have been injured or pitching without his best pitches, hence the higher than normal rate of balls that landed successfully for hitters.

Worst Balls Hit into Play % in '07
Player	BHIP2007	BHIP 3YR	KI 2007	KI 3YR
Olsen,S.	0.340	0.302	0.75	0.90	(0.15)
Jackson,E.	0.338	0.320	0.80	0.65	0.14
Mussina,M.	0.337	0.312	0.60	0.77	(0.17)
Millwood,K.	0.335	0.306	0.71	0.77	(0.06)
Hernandez,F.	0.332	0.297	0.87	0.90	(0.03)
Perez,Odalis	0.329	0.317	0.47	0.61	(0.15)
Kazmir,S.	0.329	0.313	1.16	1.11	0.04
Burres,B.	0.329	0.273	0.79	0.77	0.02
Wells,D.	0.327	0.323	0.52	0.53	(0.01)
Capuano,C.	0.324	0.298	0.88	0.84	0.04
De La Rosa,J.	0.323	0.327	0.63	0.67	(0.04)
Belisle,M.	0.322	0.311	0.70	0.69	0.01
Sonnanstine,A.	0.322	0.322	0.74	0.74	0.00
Pettitte,A.	0.322	0.303	0.65	0.80	(0.15)
Hendrickson,M.	0.321	0.309	0.75	0.58	0.17
Weaver,Jeff	0.320	0.298	0.55	0.64	(0.10)
Baker,S.	0.320	0.308	0.71	0.68	0.03
Mitre,S.	0.320	0.287	0.54	0.66	(0.12)
Contreras,J.	0.319	0.284	0.60	0.73	(0.13)
Loe,K.	0.318	0.302	0.57	0.49	0.09
Santana,E.	0.318	0.290	0.84	0.76	0.08
Bonderman,J.	0.317	0.313	0.83	0.87	(0.04)
Bonser,B.	0.316	0.305	0.79	0.81	(0.03)
Morris,M.	0.316	0.296	0.51	0.58	(0.07)
Davis,D.	0.316	0.297	0.75	0.82	(0.07)
Wells,K.	0.315	0.317	0.75	0.69	0.06
Tomko,B.	0.314	0.299	0.80	0.66	0.14
Bush,D.	0.314	0.286	0.72	0.68	0.04
Suppan,J.	0.313	0.297	0.55	0.57	(0.02)
Padilla,V.	0.313	0.293	0.59	0.70	(0.11)
Francis,J.	0.312	0.304	0.77	0.73	0.04
Willis,D.	0.312	0.297	0.71	0.71	(0.00)
Greinke,Z.	0.312	0.213	0.87	0.55	0.32
Weaver,Jared	0.311	0.273	0.71	0.78	(0.07)
Byrd,P.	0.309	0.302	0.46	0.53	(0.08)
Maholm,P.	0.309	0.288	0.59	0.63	(0.04)
Vargas,C.	0.309	0.296	0.80	0.75	0.05
Sabathia,C.	0.307	0.294	0.87	0.83	0.04
Robertson,N.	0.307	0.285	0.67	0.68	(0.01)

Players highlighted in Blue experienced a increase of over 20 points in their BHIP% in 2007. These players (Millwood, Hernandez, Burres, Capuano, Santana, Morris, Bush, Greinke, Young Weaver, Maholm, and Robertson) are all candidates to improve their overall numbers in 2008 as they may have been unlucky on a cumulative basis on balls that found holes in 2007.

Players highlighted in Red experienced a increase of over 20 points in their BHIP% in 2007, and also experienced a drop in their Strikeout % by over 10 basis points. These players are not necessarily candidates to improve their overall numbers, since the drop in K/I % means more balls went into play over their 3 year average (which increases the odds of batted balls finding success), and also indicates that these pitchers may not have had their best stuff (an indication that their pitches may not have had "life", meaning they were crushed more often by opponents). Some of these pitchers may have experienced a dead arm period (Olsen, Mitre) , while others may be nearing the end of the careers (Mussina, Pettite, Weaver, Contreras, Padilla?). Of course PED overtures are always a consideration in this era.

During the 2008 season we'll utilize these graphs to identify trends that are likely to reverse themselves. These trends will be highlighted in our periodic player recommendation reports.

Later this week, we'll have the pitchers who may have been "lucky" on balls hit into play.

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

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Preseason Prep

Feb 25, 2008

Anthony A. Perri @Anthony_Perri

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, and can be heard on their nationally broadcast SiriusXM (ch87) Fantistics Sports Radio Show. Anthony has an MBA and worked as a quantitative analyst within the investment industry from 1986-1999. Transplanted from New York (still a Mets and Giants Fan), he currently lives in Arizona with his wife Mary , daughter Hannah, and son Adam. Having won a "trophy room" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 25 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.