Within the player projections software we have a column for player notes this season where I post a few of the technical indicators that influence the 2008 projections, here's the latest round of analytic notes. For those new to Fantistics, here is a glossary of some of the technical indicators that we utilize in our forecasting model.
When I start the Preseason Player Projection notes in late February, the notes will have less of a quantitative focus as we start focusing on the qualitative vibes that come out of the various camps.
Here we go:
Verlander, Justin : '07 BHIP: lower than
deserved ERA/WHIP, must maintain his elevated K% to reach the same
success in '08.
Harang, Aaron : 2nd consecutive K/I ratio above .90, and a
BB/I below .25
Carmona, Fausto : Best GB ratio (.76), however high
Stranded% (.77) Step back projected for '08
Kazmir, Scott : Best Starting K/I ratio in AL (1.16),
living dangerous w/ .77 Runners Stranded Rate.
Shields, James : Deserved 3 more Wins in '07, great BB/I%
(.17), Whip expected to take slight rise
Lowe, Derek : Excellent .78 GB% in '07, Deserved 2 more
wins in '07
Harden, Rich : Expected to open the season healthy...steal
if he can pitch 25 games...big if.
Gallardo, Yovani : Gallardo success comes as no surprise,
Minors 1:1 K/I along with a 1.10 WHIP
Wainwright, Adam : Good GB% sustained subpar K/I ratio
(.67) in '07, high BHIP which could mean a lower WHIP and ERA in
'08
Sheets, Ben : Hasn't pitched a full season since'04. 1.10
WHIP avg last 4 years.
Hill, Rich : High K/I % (.94), indictors point to better
'08 but Fly ball pitchers are always risky
Chamberlain, Joba : Insane K ratio (1.53) and WHIP (0.73)
in 1 minor league season....WOW.
Matsuzaka, Daisuke : Mystery factor disappeared in the 2nd
half, xERA less than actual in '07.
Zambrano, Carlos : Only deserved 13 wins instead of 18 in
'07, worrisome K/I down 15%. Was last year an anomaly or a sign of
a pitcher burning out?
McGowan, Dustin : Solid .64 GB ratio, higher WHIP (higher
BHIP), but lower era expected in '08
Martinez, Pedro : Still a top 20 pitcher? Depends on the
fastball we see in St. Lucie
Snell, Ian : Tends to struggle in 2nd half, deserved 16
Wins in '07
Hernandez, Felix : Unlucky BHIP% (+) in '07, should improve
considerably...if he can stay healthy.
Have a great weekend,
Anthony
