Alex Gonzalez
Gonzalez was diagnosed Friday with a “compression fracture” of his left knee, an injury that is expected to sideline him at least three weeks. Looking up “compression fracture” on the Internet (dangerous, I know), I found this on one site “Compression fracture: the bone has broken from extreme pressure and has been smashed.” Doesn’t sound promising. The Reds say though that Gonzalez will be re-evaluated in three weeks and he hasn’t been ruled out (yet) for the start of the season, but in the (unlikely I hope) event that he can’t go when the bell rings, Jeff Keppinger will likely get the nod. It may be too late for Keppinger to ever win a full-time role, but after hitting .332/.400/.477 with a very nice 24:12 (not that’s not reversed) BB:K in 241 at-bats last year, the Reds gain offensively while sacrificing some (a lot?) defense. Juan Castro could be in the mix as well, as he’s better defensively, but look for Keppinger to get the nod. We’re not going to predict Keppinger Wally Pipping Gonzalez, but this is a situation to watch. In Gonzalez’s favor: his glove and a .273-16-55 season last year. Dusty Baker won’t mind Gonzalez’s subpar walk totals.
Lastings Milledge
The news on Thursday that Milledge wanted to run more probably perked your ears up, but just make sure you temper your expectations. The athleticism is certainly there to steal 25-30 bases, but with manager Manny Acta wanting Milledge to have a 74% success rate, we may not see Milledge getting the green light as often as he wishes. In the minors, Milledge was successful in 67.5% of his 117 attempts (79 steals), a rate that’s not likely to get significantly better in the majors where the catchers and pitchers are that much better. It’s a note that I’m filing away for my upcoming drafts, but don’t bump Milledge too far up on your cheatsheets just yet. He still is part of a potential three-man rotation between LF and CF.
Julio Lugo
I’m really starting to warm up to Lugo this year. Hard to believe, considering his 2007 numbers: .237/.294/.349. The fact that he could steal 33 bases with a .294 OBP is certainly encouraging for this 2008 prospects. Lugo’s 1H/2H splits were quite notable last year as well: .197/.270/.298 vs. .280/.322/.406. Finally, we hear similar explanations for poor performances each spring (nagging injury, personal problems, etc.), but there was a report Friday that Lugo was bothered all last year by a stomach parasite he picked up while on a vacation during the offseason. Hard to know what to believe there, but take it as just another piece of information. I really like Jed Lowrie as a prospect, but there’s no reason to think Lugo’s job is in jeopardy, and it’s highly possible we could see 40+ stolen bases if he can get his OBP back in the .340 range.
Alexei Ramirez
I’m starting to warm up a bit to Ramirez, the Cuban defector the White signed to a four-year deal this offseason. While Kendry Morales has yet to establish himself in Anaheim, Ramirez might actually get a shot at the starting second base job this spring. Danny Richar seems to have been bestowed the honor of being the first occupant of Ozzie Guillen’s doghouse this spring, a result of his arriving to camp nearly two weeks late due to Visa problems (side note: this happens every year – shouldn’t guys try and get their Visas a little earlier perhaps?). Ramirez promptly went 4-for-5 in his first spring game, though Guillen describes his defense as “pretty rough”. If it’s truly defense Guillen is after, Juan Uribe could get the nod, but if Ramirez keeps hitting, it will be hard to bench him too often.
Nick Swisher
Ozzie Guillen said he’s considering using Swisher as his leadoff hitter should Jerry Owens fail to beat out Carlos Quentin for a starting outfield job. The White Sox lineup would then seem to be: CF Swisher, SS Cabrera, DH Thome, RF Dye, 1B Konerko, 3B Fields/Crede, LF Quentin, C Pierzynski, 2B TBD. This would seem to increase Swisher’s runs scored projection while suppressing RBI, but I probably wouldn’t change his fantasy ranking on this news. He’s never been a stolen base guy, so don’t expect him to all of a sudden run more. Jerry Owens getting on base enough this spring and winning the CF job would round out this lineup perfectly, but that’s to be determined.
Michael Bourn
Bourn’s ability (or potential lack thereof) to get on base this year will be the primary determinant in whether the Lidge trade was a win-win for both sides, and for fantasy purposes, it’s just as huge. Simply, the more times he gets on base, the more stolen base opportunities will come his way, and for Bourn, a guy we’re projecting for just a .366 SLG, all his value is in his legs. Bourn averaged 67 stolen bases per 162 games played in the minor leagues, so projecting 50 this year is a reasonable estimate, but to get to that mark, he’s going to have to approach last season’s .348 OBP with the Phillies (just 119 at-bats). Consider Bourn in the Juan Pierre / Willy Taveras class of low (or no) power / speed guys, though Bourn might have a bit more upside. Encouragingly, his minor league EYE is a solid 0.67.
Padres LF job
Entering spring training, Chase Headley was the favorite here after hitting .330/.437/.580 last season in Double-A. A natural third baseman, Headley is blocked in San Diego by Kevin Kouzmanoff, but with the San Diego outfield in dire need of a talent infusion, Headley appeared to have a clear path to the job. Enter, however, Scott Hairston. A former top prospect in the Arizona organization, Hairston washed out there as a second baseman, only to resurface as a 27 year-old outfielder in San Diego. Over parts of four big league seasons, Hairston has batted (637 at-bats) .245/.299/.440. That .195 ISO is impressive, but he’s really a one-trick pony – a guy who won’t hit for much of an average, won’t run, but will hit 20-25 home runs. There’s certainly value in that, but although word Friday had manager Bud Black favoring Scott Hairston early based on his eight homers in 87 at-bats with the Padres in 2007, it’s still very early, and I’d venture to guess that Headley will lead all Padres’ left-fielders in at-bats this year, even if he’s not the opening day guy.
Padres #4/#5 starters
The Padres pretty set at the top with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Greg Maddux, but their ability to compete in the tough NL West is going to be determined by what they get out of the final two spots. Randy Wolf (coming off shoulder surgery), Mark Prior (not enough space here for his medical history), Shawn Estes, Glendon Rusch, and Justin Germano will all be in the mix for the jobs at various times this year, though ideally for the Padres, Prior and Wolf make most of the starts. I’ve seen Prior go in the $1-$5 range in auctions this year, an investment that could eventually pay off, but it’s tough to forecast more than 15 starts for Prior and another 20 for Wolf. The Padres hope to see Prior in the rotation by May 1 while Wolf is currently expected to be ready by opening day. Neither one of these guys has made 30 starts since 2003, something to keep in mind when you’re hearing Prior is “feeling good” and looking to return to his previous form.
Juan Gonzalez
One pitch from Johan Santana on Friday and might Juan Gonzalez suddenly be relevant again? Let’s not get carried away, but Gonzalez crushed a three-run homer off Santana in Friday’s game, and is bidding to make the Cardinals’ roster, probably as a backup outfielder. Should the Cards elect to keep Colby Rasmus in Triple-A to start the year in order to put off his free agency a year (a distinct possibility), they could go with a defensively-challenged outfield of Chris Duncan in left, Rick Ankiel in center, and Gonzalez in right. Just speculating there, but “brutal” is the word that comes to mind when pondering the defensive ramifications. Gonzalez last played in the majors in 2005, and his season that year consisted of one at-bat in which he injured himself running out a ground ball. Otherwise, his last 500+ at-bat season was back in 2001. He’s going to need to show a lot more this spring just to make the team, but the unfortunate troubles of the released Scott Spiezio could help Gonzalez’s cause.
Jay Bruce
Bruce was 2-for-3 in Friday’s game and is now 4-for-7 to start the spring. Still early obviously, but a couple days after manager Dusty Baker stated that he “hoped” one of Ryan Freel or Norris Hopper was in the lineup to start the season, Bruce is doing his best to put his name in the mix. He’s clearly the most talented of the trio, but will still have to win the veteran-oriented Baker over with more than just adequate play. It’s also worth noting that Freel and Hopper are a combined 1-for-11 so far. If I had to guess though, Bruce starts out in Triple-A and wins up with around 400 big-league PA’s this year. Temper your 2008 expectations, but the Reds have a special player here.
Dodgers 3B
It's the wily veteran versus the minor leaguer with the big numbers as Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche enter spring training in a battle for the third base job. It's a position that the Dodgers have historically had trouble filling (outside of Ron Cey and Adrian Beltre in recent years). The early buzz out of camp has new manager Joe Torre talking up Garciaparra as a good fit for a utility / pinch-hitter role, and indeed, LaRoche has taken the first reps at third with the rest of the starting infield, so consider him the slight leader at this point. Still, LaRoche will need to hit this spring to win the job outright. Considering LaRoche has youth and a .295/.376/.525 career minor league line on his side, though Garciaparra has that veteran presence that could appeal to Joe Torre. We’re guessing LaRoche will have more at-bats than Garicaparra at year’s end, though this job battle is far from settled.
Dodgers #5 starter
If early spring is any indication, the Dodgers 5th starter to open the year may be neither Jason Schmidt (shoulder) nor Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza was predictably roughed up in his spring debut Friday, allowing three runs on four hits, one of them being a two-run Javy Lopez (yes, THAT Javy Lopez) homer. Loaiza was also terrible last year for the Dodgers, going 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA in five starts after being claimed off waivers from Oakland. Schmidt meanwhile is “taking a break” from throwing, as he’s reportedly fatigued and a little sore. That doesn’t sound good at all of course. Darkhorses for the job: Hong-Chih Kuo (proud owner of four elbow surgeries – two of the Tommy John variety), Jason Johnson, Eric Stults, and prized rookies Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald. This one is wide open.
Giants #5 starter
This one is a battle between southpaw Jonathan Sanchez and right-hander Kevin Correia. Correia was thought to be the favorite entering spring training, and after Friday, he’s probably that much more secure. Sanchez surrendered three runs in an inning of work Friday, a day after Correia allowed five runs (four earned) in his one inning of work. Long term, we like the southpaw Sanchez a bit more, though for 2008, Correia might be the slightly better bet.
Giants first base
The competitors: favorite Dan Ortmeier, next in line Nate Schierholz, and darkhorse candidate John Bowker. Ortmeier is a former 3rd round pick of the Giants back in 2002. He’s had some struggles with injuries, but after batting .287/.317/.497 in 157 at-bats for the Giants last year, the Giants look to be giving him a chance at winning the majority of the first base at-bats this year. He’s somewhat of an NL-only sleeper, and after hitting 20 homers and stealing 35 bases back in 2005, you can’t ignore him totally.
Rockies second base
Jayson Nix, Ian Stewart, Marcus Giles, Jeff Baker, etc., this is a job that is wide open. Early on, it’s thought that Nix has the early line on the second base job, though Baker is probably next in line considering he’s out of minor league options. On Wednesday, it was reported that Baker had emerged as the primary competitor for the job (with Nix), though this is a battle that’s far from over. Nix, 25, is a former first round pick, who up until hitting .292 with 11 homers and 24 SB last year, had been a huge bust, looks to be a nice NL-only sleeper option.
Rockies #4/#5 starter
Could whomever is named the Rockies’#4 and #5 starter actually have some fantasy value? Perhaps. The competitors: Kip Wells, Franklin Morales, Josh Towers, Jason Hirsh, Mark Redman, etc. Mediocrity reigns here. Ideally, Morales and Hirsh would step up and win the jobs. Morales is the guy to watch here, as he’s a southpaw who hits the mid to upper 90s with a sharp slider. Morales turned 22 in January, and after posting a 118:72 K:BB between three levels last year, he’s far from a finished product, but you have to wonder what the Rockies have to gain by running the likes of Josh Towers out there every fifth day.
Brian Buscher
Deep, deep sleeper alert. Buscher probably isn’t in the mix for the third base job with Mike Lamb aboard, but he could certainly win a bench job. Buscher has a .755 career minor league OPS in over 1,300 at-bats, so it’s hard to see a lot of upside here, but there is some upside here. Buscher is a former Giantas’ farmhand and considering the so-so Lamb is his primary competitor, it’s hard to completely rule out Buscher.
Anthony Reyes
Reyes, competing for one of the Cardinals’ vacant rotation slots, tossed three scoreless innings in his Grapefruit League opener on Thursday. There’s certainly enough talent in Reyes’ right arm for him to win a job, but he’s been somewhat of a disappointment in his pro career to date. Reyes has a 5.42 ERA and 158:81 career record in 206 career big league innings, so he’s got a lot to prove, but I’d take a flier on his potential over the likes of Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer. Reyes has a career minor league line of 23-10, 3.26 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and a 1.9 BB/9, so he can’t be ignored. We may just be talking about a late bloomer here.
