Cubs closer situation
One of the most intriguing position battles to follow in spring training will be the Cubs closer position. The Cubs are fortunate to have three capable arms in Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, and Carlos Marmol and compelling cases can be made for each of them to close and Lou Pineilla has hinted at all of them having the opportunity. His earliest comments suggested Howry was the front-runner, but his latest comments shying away from Howry’s early season struggles last season seemed to open the door for Marmol or Wood. This will be a situation we keep a close eye on all spring, but one that I’m taking a firm stance early on and drafting Bob Howry. Last season when Ryan Dempster was injured Howry received the majority of the save opportunities, 12 to Marmol’s 2, and while fantasy owners salivate over Carlos Marmol’s 2007 season, Howry was quietly as dominant in the 2nd half (1.85 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Cubs’ skipper Lou Pineilla also showed a propensity for utilizing Marmol in highly leverage multi-inning situations which I think will carry forward into 2008. Kerry Wood’s inability during the early cold weather schedule to throw back-to-back days should steer Pineilla away from Wood as the early season closer. I believe both Marmol and Howry are extremely draftable with Marmol as a high-upside ultra valuable middle reliever (due to the K potential) and Howry as the guy first in line for saves. I value middle relievers in nearly all league formats (even those without holds) so I’d view Marmol as draft-worthy as well, but Howry (being drafted 127 spots later, 291 vs. 164) is clearly the value.
Cubs 3rd and 5th rotation slots
The Cubs have a bevy of starters battling for 2 slots in their rotation this spring (Sean Marshall, Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis, Jon Lieber, and Sean Gallagher). You can cross one youngster, Sean Gallagher, off the list as Pineilla was quoted in Cubs camp on Monday saying “We have veteran pitchers here to consider… We like Gallagher… But truthfully, I’d be lying if I said something that could happen {that they’d make the big league team}”. They’d he was referring to was Gallagher and Jeff Samardzija, not Sean Marshall, although Marshall’s likeliness could be considered questionable as well as Pineilla has already named Rich Hill his #4 starter, attempting to put a righty between Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the #3 slot. If he wants a righty in between Hill and Lilly you’d envision Sean Marshall wouldn’t qualify for the #3 slot and if the goal is to avoid throwing two lefties back-to-back, he’d likely have a hard time qualifying in the #5 slot as well (following Hill). Lieber and Marshall would figure to be the most intriguing options based on talent both for Cubs fans and fantasy owners, but Marquis’ innings-eater mentality and his quick starts the last few years make it likely he’ll find his way into the rotation in April. Dempster was once a starter, though largely an ineffective one, and it’s hard to envision his 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP out of the bullpen playing in the rotation. Dempster will get the first opportunity in the Cubs pre-season opener on Thursday, but I envision him back in the bullpen role and potentially a 4th man to the closer’s mix by the end of the spring. Lieber and Marquis will likely win this battle with Lieber being the more attractive option for fantasy owners. Five of Lieber’s last seven full seasons have netted WHIPs below 1.30, with league average ERA. He’s a nice spot starting option when healthy and this year would be facing plenty of favorable matchups in the weak NL Central.
Kosuke Fukudome- New Import/Less Hype
The early returns out of spring training for Kosuke Fukudome had been pretty muted until Monday’s batting practice round when Fukudome unleashed some towering blasts over the RF wall. Fukudome’s first couple batting practice sessions were nothing to write about as he took a number of pitches and then looked awfully uncomfortable against a sharp Kerry Wood on Saturday. Fukudome’s power translating to the Major Leagues will be one of the more important things to watch for this season. He’s considered a patient hitter with significant on-base abilities but more of a gap hitter than a traditional slugger. The Cubs are currently planning on batting Fukudome 3rd in front of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez which should provide his on-base skills with plenty of Run opportunities but will likely limit his RBI chances. For fantasy owners Fukudome makes for a nice back-end OF option whose upside will largely be determined by how his power translates to MLB and how often he decides to run. If he can swipe 10 bases or so get close to our 20 HR projection he should have nice value, especially for those in leagues that reward BB’s.
Reds CF Battle-Dusty Baker at it again!
Ahhh Dusty Baker, ole reliable! When asked who would hit leadoff if Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel weren’t in the lineup, Dusty responded with “I would hope one or the other is in the game.” This is not good news for Jay Bruce or anyone looking to draft him heading into this season. Dusty Baker has always been fond of a “prototypical” leadoff hitter, unfortunately the prototype in his mind had more to do with speed than an actual ability to get on base. This makes both Hopper and Freel extremely attractive to Baker and his most recent comments seem to suggest he’s not taking the Jay Bruce audition very seriously. It would seem Bruce would need a spring like Pence or Braun’s 2007 spring training to even draw consideration from the Reds new manager.
Votto not guaranteed playing time either?
Much like the Reds CF position it looks as if the younger player faces a bit more of an uphill battle than he should on the way to an opening day starting position. Dusty Baker’s comments regarding the 1B situation sounded more like it was an open competition: “It might be Votto’s time”. It would be hard to envision the 38 year old Hatteberg playing over Votto, given Votto’s success the last two seasons at AA (.955 OPS) and then AAA (.859 OPS), but anything is possible with Dusty Baker. We’re pretty high on Votto this year projecting .286-69-23-76-11 line, but only in 134 games, hinting at some potential loss in playing time to Hatteberg throughout the season. Of the rookies in the NL, Votto looks to be one of the more intriguing fantasy options because of his path to playing time, but this might be a situation we need to monitor more than we thought heading into the spring games.
Reds Potential Lineup- Griffey, Phillips, Dunn 3-4-5
Dusty Baker noted that he’d like to keep Brandon Phillips in the clean-up spot this season hoping to break up the two lefties (Griffey-3rd, Dunn-5th), which should be good news for Phillips fantasy owners. Last year hitting clean-up Phillips hit .306/.352/.493 (as opposed to his .288/.331/.485 total line) and his RBI rate jumped significantly once he moved from the 2nd to the 4th slot (as expected). His run rate dropped slightly, but this is protected a bit by Adam Dunn being behind him, making the move to the 4th slot an overall boost in his value. Surprisingly Phillips SB attempts rate stayed about the same in both lineup positions. From a statistical standpoint, Phillips batting 4th shouldn’t significantly impact his value and if Phillips improvements last season were legitimate he should continue to post excellent top tier fantasy numbers out of the 2B position. Unfortunately for Dunn’s owners his superior on-base skills will continue to get wasted towards the lower half of the Reds lineup.
Angels SS Battle
SS remains an unsettled position heading into spring for the Angels, with manager Mike Scioscia admitting a potential time-share between Erick Aybar and Macier Izturis during the season could be the solution. Both batters are switch hitters so a straight platoon doesn’t make sense on the surface, but looking at their career major league splits there may be a case for playing Izturis (.749 OPS) against the righties and Aybar (.717 OPS) against the lefties; however, these are admittedly in small samples. Ultimately Aybar is the one with the track record and Izturis the player that seems a bit more ready, so the suggested time share Scioscia hints at may be a real possibility this year. We’re projecting Aybar to win out here, but ultimately have minimal fantasy value with the exception of those in AL only leagues.
Brandon Wood regains sleeper status???
With Mike Scioscia non-committal about the starting SS position and already considering a straight time-share between Izturis and Aybar, the level of confidence coming from the manager seems tempered. Meanwhile the news on the farm for the Angels is that they intend on moving Brandon Wood back to SS with Orlando Cabrera now out of the organization. The lukewarm reception to the current SS position combined with Wood’s move back to SS makes Wood an intriguing sleeper option in deep leagues (especially AL-only). Wood will almost definitely start the season in AAA to get acquainted with SS again, but his .835 OPS as a 22 year old in his first season at AAA suggest there’s some significant upside further for Wood. He’ll always be a batting average risk because of his tremendous K Rate, but he’s got enormous power potential and the move back to SS signals a potential shift in the organization’s view of the current SS position. I don’t expect Wood to break camp with the Angels, but we could be looking at a mid-season call-up that makes an impact in the power categories.
Kelvim Escobar’s ailing shoulder
Kelvim Escobar was shut down earlier this spring due to some discomfort in his shoulder and is now not expected to begin throwing until mid-March. Starting that late would likely put Escobar out for all of April and possibly into May. As I mentioned in an earlier blog posting this weekend, Escobar’s injury is a bit more worrisome than the injuries to Yovani Gallardo and Brad Lidge, mostly because it deals with his arm and more specifically his shoulder. While elbow injuries to pitchers traditionally have the more violent nature to them, they’re often a bit more predictable in their rehab and treatment schedule. Shoulder injuries tend to have more recurrence issues and require more maintenance from the training staff. This is one of my main concerns surrounding Escobar, who managed a career season in 2007 in terms of production going 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 196 innings. Interestingly enough talent has never been the primary question with Escobar as fantasy owners tend to worry more about his health than his production. Despite topping 180 innings in 4 of the last 5 seasons, the questions remain. Escobar has hit the DL a total of 5 times over the last 3 years and each time with injuries to his pitching arm. In 2007, Escobar landed on the DL in April with Shoulder issues and then missed a start again in September with the same shoulder problems. Surprisingly, Escobar’s current injury isn’t causing his ADP to plummet, as he’s currently being drafted as the 39th pitcher, 154th overall, in 5 x 5 mixed leagues, ahead of Oliver Perez, Adam Wainwright, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, Clay Buchholz all of whom we have projected ahead of Escobar. At the current value, I don’t think Escobar’s worth the risk associated with the balky shoulder as shoulder conditions tend to be degenerative and Escobar has had recurring issues over the last year with his shoulder. I’d prefer to wait on Escobar until the late 100’s, early 200’s closer to the area of some consistent but limited upside starters like Joe Blanton and likely won’t land him on many teams at this price (which I believe is paying close to full price).
The Rich Harden Annual Spring Tease!
Rich Harden is throwing comfortably and has yet to have any problems this spring, as he started facing hitters last week without issue. Sound familiar? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Rich Harden is the ultimate fantasy tease, flashing absolutely dominant stuff whenever healthy. Unfortunately health has limited him to just 72 innings over the last two years with a variety of injuries (back, oblique, shoulder, elbow). The shoulder has been the latest lingering problem as it landed him on multiple DL stints last season along with a number of delays in rehab from lingering inflammation. As I mentioned in my blurb about Escobar this morning, shoulder injuries tend to be degenerative and difficult to treat and for that reason, I’m not getting sucked into Rich Harden again this year with anything other than a last round flier in a league where I can hide Harden in a DL slot.
Travis Buck- A personal sleeper favorite
My affinity for Travis Buck probably relates to the direct similarities I see between him and one of my personal Cub favorites Matt Murton. Both Buck and Murton are better real life baseball players than fantasy baseball players because their strengths are in plate discipline and gap power. Neither do anything great but both players do a little bit of everything decently. This year Buck should have plenty of opportunity to score runs as he’s a likely leadoff candidate for the A’s with his tidy .377 OBP last season. This was a position he fared well in last season posting a .304/.383/.446 line with 25 runs in 43 games. Projected out over a full season his line out of the leadoff spot would’ve been 94 runs, 60 RBIs, 58 2B’s, 4 HR’s, 15 SB’s. I don’t think Buck will turn a ton of those 2B’s into HR’s this season but cracking the low double digits wouldn’t surprise me, along with the potential of low double digit steals and 90+ runs without hurting you in batting average, Buck makes for a solid backup OF in mixed leagues and a nice sleeper in AL Only leagues. He’ll also play much better in leagues that reward 2B’s or BB’s where Buck’s best traits are truly emphasized.
The race for the setup man in Oakland
The race for 8th inning duties out of the pen will be something to watch in A’s camp this spring. With Huston Street showing some durability issues over the last 3 years, the A’s bullpen has notched an average of 17 non-Street saves each season. For those that don’t believe in “paying for saves” the A’s bullpen has been a goldmine producing Alan Embree’s 17 saves in ’07, Justin Duchscherer’s 9 saves in ’06 and 5 saves in ‘05, and Octavio Dotel’s 7 saves in ’05. Add in the potential trade value of Huston Street to a rebuilding A’s team and there’s even more interest in who the primary setup man is for the A’s. This season with Justin Duchscherer trying his hand at the rotation, he’s likely out of the picture and with recently turned 38 year old Alan Embree’s September slide (6.86 ERA), I’m counting on a new body getting some save opportunities for the A’s this year. Kiko Calero is seemingly a bullpen favorite with the A’s but he struggled last season and this off-season confirmed he had a torn rotator cuff in his shoulder. He’s opted for rehab instead of surgery, a smart move for the 33 year old, but I’m not expecting a massive improvement. This brings me to two deeper sleepers in the bullpen: Santiago Casilla and Andrew Brown. Both pitcher’s numbers aren’t mouth watering by any means, but they both show the excellent K Rates (1.02- Casilla, 1.03- Brown) you’d ideally like out of a closer and at 27 both have the feel of a longer-term option if the A’s were to move forward with trading Huston Street. They both need to exhibit better control than they have (.45 BB Rate-Casilla, .41- Brown) in ’07 season but each have shown better command at the minor league level and have had periods of dominance out of the pen. For Casilla this includes a June in which he allowed just 14 base-runners (5 BB’s) and 1 ER in 15 2/3 innings while striking out 18. While both have similar resumes and are deep sleeper options for this season, Casilla is the guy I like more. I envision him grabbing a handful of save opportunities this year in the A’s bullpen with the chance for plenty more if the A’s ever move Huston Street. We’ll keep you updated on the developments of the setup role in Oakland over the course of the Spring, and with approximately 17 saves a year coming from names other Huston Street, it’s certainly a situation to monitor closely heading into draft day.
Bartolo Colon signs - New El Guapo?
It looks like the Red Sox have a new “El Guapo” for Spring Training. Bartolo Colon’s minor league deal with the Red Sox, which has now been confirmed by multiple sources, is a bit of a concern for Clay Buchholz owners. I personally can’t envision a scenario in which the fat man overtakes Buchholz during the spring as reports out of the Dominican winter league suggested Colon was barely touching the high 80’s. Buchholz owners can take the competition with a grain of salt for now, but if Colon puts together a couple solid spring outings, things could change quickly.
As the Toronto Star reports, "Former American League Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon agreed yesterday to a minor-league contract with the Boston Red Sox and will report to spring training. The 34-year-old right-hander was 6-8 with a 6.34 ERA in 19 games last season with the Los Angeles Angels. He has been slowed by injuries, opening last year on the disabled list with a partial tear in his right rotator cuff. He also battled problems with his elbow. If healthy, Colon could take a spot in the rotation that opened when Curt Schilling got hurt."
Will Barry Bonds find a home?
Reports about the Rays having internal discussions about Bonds appear to have been overblown, but the question remains: will anyone take a shot on the Home Run champ? The one team that really sticks out to me is Seattle, if they could replace Jose Vidro’s bat with Barry Bonds they could really push the Angels. Right now their offense looks pretty anemic and Bonds has shown an ability to carry some anemic offensive teams in San Francisco over the last few years with his incredible on-base skills. For now it looks as if teams are too afraid to take the PR hit on Bonds and if I had to guess I don’t envision a team gambling on him heading into the season, but come June or July if a surprise contender with a DH slot starts strong, we could see some action.
According to the Toronto Star, "The Tampa Bay Rays have had internal discussions about the prospect of pursuing Barry Bonds. Manager Joe Maddon said yesterday he knew "little" about what was going on, but acknowledged some thought has been given to the career home-run leader. "A minor discussion was thrown out there a little bit, and it's really not gone any further than that," Maddon said yesterday."
BJ Ryan on the comeback tour!
All the reports out of Toronto have been pretty positive surrounding BJ Ryan’s return from Tommy John surgery. The part that concerns me is the standard “velocity returns immediately, but control takes usually a year to return” with regards to Ryan. He wasn’t exactly a control specialist before the injury and I could see some struggles that would leave some cause for concern out of the closer’s role. Regardless Ryan is getting paid handsomely and I can’t imagine the Jays having a healthy Ryan and not using him in the closer’s role. Ryan is currently being drafted as the 27th relief pitcher with Jeremy Accardo going quickly thereafter at 33rd overall. I like Accardo more from a skills-perspective this year, but I can’t envision him getting an opportunity with Ryan healthy. In fantasy opportunity is much more important than skills and for this reason I’d draft Ryan ahead of Accardo. Keep an eye on Ryan this spring because, if moderately healthy, he has a chance to be a draft day bargain.
According to the Toronto Star, "Jays closer B.J. Ryan, who continues to recover from Tommy John surgery, threw another strong bullpen yesterday. It was a little shaky to start, but he settled in nicely while throwing something in the range of 30 pitches. "It's getting better ... last bullpen felt good, just kind of a crummy outcome, and today was better," Ryan said. "It started coming together there near the end." Dr. Tim Kremchek, the surgeon who performed Ryan's elbow operation, will examine the closer in the coming days. Assuming all is well, Ryan will throw a live batting practice on Thursday. Then he's due to throw in at least one minor league game before joining the Jays for Grapefruit League action." –
JR Towles strong start
Offensively Towles got off to a nice start with yesterday’s intersquad game. I’m actually a bit skeptical with Towles this year as I view Brad Ausmus as a direct impediment to Towles. He shouldn’t be, but veteran catchers always tend to catch their manager’s eyes and for some reason I see Ausmus catching a few more games than most “backup” catchers. I think Towles needs to have a tremendous spring to secure 90% of the playing time, this is a solid start offensively.
As the Houston Chronicle reports, "Catcher J.R. Towles had a pair of throwing errors Monday. On offense, he was 2-for-2 with a home run off lefthander Mark McLemore. Michael Bourn was 1-for-3 with a stolen base and a run. Mark Loretta, who served as the designated hitter, was 2-for-3 with an RBI double. Darin Erstad, the other DH, also had an RBI while going 1-for-3. "J.R. Towles put up a couple of the best swings of the day, and Erstad swung the bat good," manager Cecil Cooper said. "That's the stuff you want to see."
