Have you ever noticed that when TV series get to a certain episode number they toss out a cheesy “clip episode” where they cut stuff from all the previous shows and throw together a low-cost edition? What I am about to do is nothing like that … Well, ok, it’s something like that … but not exactly.
Continuing our 2007 wrap in Prospect Central, this week we will looking at 10 of the players who will climb near the top of many 2008 prospect lists. (In no particular order…)
As an interesting aside (hopefully), I will also included some clips … er … excerpts from previous Prospect Central volumes to see where we thought these players should be earlier, and compare that to what they have done since.
See? It is referencing … It’s not a cheesy clips episode…
Clay Buchholz – SP – Red Sox
In Volume 8 of Prospect Central (PC) I said:
“A supplemental first round pick for the Sox in 2005, Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro seasons… Clay represents true Ace potential even though he is still a bit underrated in many circles. He will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next year I suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central.”
Later, on June 26th after seeing him pitch for
“Clay has been selected to play in the 2007 Futures Game and the Red Sox sandwich pick in 2005, the 42nd player taken overall, seems to be straining at the leash developmentally. I am guessing the only reason he is not in AAA now is that the Red Sox feel no urge to rush the young man. The Red Sox as an organization however feel they will not bring a player to the majors unless they see him face some adversity and gauge how they handle it. Clay is probably not going to be challenged too much in AA, so their hand may be forced.
As telling as anything last night, the nearly 7,000 in attendance gave the visiting Buchholz a prolonged standing ovation as he left the mound, no doubt with visions of him in Fenway dancing in their heads. As I speculated in week #8 it seems certain that Clay’s days of being underrated as a prospect are near an end.”
Well we all know what happened after that.
The feeling in the organization was that he let his focus slip a little bit after coming back from the majors but over 8 starts in AAA he went 1-3 on a bad team with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He gave up just 32 hits in 38.2 IP (.227 OBA) but walked 13 (3.03). To an extent he fell victim to am unfavorable .333 BHIP% and a very unfavorable 64.1% strand percentage, but he did learn that he couldn’t just naturally dominate hitters. He needed to bring everything, his stuff, his focus, and his head to the mound to be the elite pitcher he was capable of being.
Then came the injury to Tim Wakefield and on less than 48 hours notice, Clay went out and no-hit the Orioles on September 1st. One thing the Red Sox wanted Clay to learn in AAA was how to work batters over the course of a game, selecting pitches in the first meeting with a batter, with an eye towards his second and third AB in the game. Jason Varitek needs to be given a lot of credit for the no-hitter as he grabbed Clay by the hand in a pitch selection sense and asked a lot of him. Clay just followed Jason and threw whatever Jason wanted in whatever count Jason wanted it, and he threw everything with command. That night the Red Sox battery gave new meaning to the term “baffling hitters”.
I honestly cannot decide which is better, his change or his hellacious 12-6 curve. However, he wraps those around a fastball with life. His stuff is incredible, and he has raised his pitching IQ tremendously this year.
He is The Real Deal.
Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” in Volume 8. He is now an A+
Justin Upton – OF – D-Backs
I profiled Justin Upton way back in Volume 1 of PC as part of a piece on great young prospects in the low minors. Of that group, Jose Tabata and Fernando Martinez had good years but were injured, Colby Rasmus did not come too far level-wise, but he flashed his considerable talent, and two guys, Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin made it to the show.
Here is what I wrote about
“Even by professional sports standards Justin is an exceptional athlete and even that works against him to a degree. Sometimes gifted players lean too heavily on their athleticism and as a result they back burner their skill development … His 6-1, 195lb frame already looks MLB-ready as do his physical skills. What is going to be fun is watching the bearing of his physical skills cross the bearing of his baseball skills. When that happens there will be a mushroom cloud.”
After a fast start in high-A (.341, 5 HRs, 9 SBs, a .540 SLG% and .967 OPS), Justin barely slowed down when he hit AA. He batted .309, holding his K rate below 20% (19.7%) with a +10% BB rate (12.5%) and oh ya, he slugged .556 with a 34 XBH in 259 ABs (right around a pace of 62 XBH and 25 HRs over 500 ABs).
His adult baseball incisors are clearly coming in as his BB rate and K rate held steady, at healthy levels, despite a big level jump. In his last full month in AA, July, he hit 305, drawing 19 walks (23.1%) in 82 ABs with just 13 Ks (15.8%) and a .585 SLG%.
He is experiencing growing pains in the majors right now (29.5% K rate, .221 AVG, .275 OBP in 95 ABS) but man this kid is going to be fun to watch.
Long Term Fantasy Grade: In Week #1 I gave Justin an “A+”. I do not think he will steal a ton of bases, nor do I think he quite has 40-HR power (although I really hate to put a ceiling on this just-turned-20 year old), but Justin is simply one of the best prospects on the board. A+
Ian Kennedy – SP – Yankees
Last week I profiled the Yankees other …well, after Phillip Hughes I guess I have to say third … great pitching prospect, Ian Kennedy:
“Joba Chamberlain has gotten a lot of the Yankees prospect ink this season but Kennedy may have actually had the better year.
Ian made his MLB debut yesterday limiting the Rays to 1 run in 7 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and 6 K. Ian climbed three levels in 2007 finishing in AAA where he was 1-1, 2.08 in 6 starts, with a 1.04 WHIP and .204 OBA. That line was helped by a .265 BHIP% and a 85.6% strand percentage.
Ian is not overpowering, throwing in the 88-92 range and he has a fastball with natural sink, which helps him keep the ball in the ballpark (0.52 HR/9 in AAA). But location is his game, not that he has tremendous control (2.8 BB/9 in AAA)
It easier to like pitchers who throw hard but Kennedy is making a living out of defying that bias. Still, he has come a long way in short time and there plenty of indicators (favorable strand% and BHIP%, high walk rate) that give you pause.
If he can maintain his power K rate (8.8 in AAA) at the MLB level despite the lack of true power stuff, and if he can maintain his sterling HR rate in the majors he can continue to be very effective. He did just that Saturday, however, he has to show me at least, he can do it long-term.”
Moneyball taught us all about “biases” and how they color what we think of a player. I have a bias against soft tossing (when a pitcher throws multiple fastballs in the 80’s during an outing and tops out around 92 he is a “soft tosser” for the purposes of this discussion) pitchers, especially when their 6-0 listed height is questionable, and they are right-handed. As a result, I am going to be a little stubborn about Ian until he kicks it out of me.
Ian has had a terrific year in 2007, rising from high-A to the majors and despite his lack of a dominant fastball he has maintained high K rates and OBAs of .204 or better over three levels. I have to look at his BHIP% (.259, .238, and .265 at A+, AA, and AAA respectively) and his strand % (89.5%, 74.1%, 85.6%) and wonder what his line will be like if he can’t maintain any of these indicators at the MLB level.
Well, we only have 12 IP to work with, but his MLB BHIP% is level at .299, which has brought his OBA, in starts against the free-swinging Rays and the Royals, to a mediocre .262. His ERA sits at 2.25 despite a WHIP (1.42) that is just better than average. That is due to a still-favorable 76.9% strand %. Level that off at 70% and we are looking at a 3.82 ERA. That’s still good of course, but not “elite” good.
His K rate has dropped to 6.0 in the majors and his BB rate has spiked at 3.7/9.
Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him a “B-“ last week and I stand my ground 7 days later. We can dissect his two starts, but it is useless given the sample size and his inexperience. Moreover, at this level maybe the coaches can get more GBOs out of the sink on his fastball, which will be key in terms of his potential in the majors. The bottom line is that I think he has overachieved considering the level of his stuff. I would not get too enamored.
Joba Chamberlain - SP – Yankees
In Volume 9 of PC this year, I said:
“Chamberlain has not been wowed by high-A so far fanning over 10/9 while controlling his walks and winning the contact battles with opposing hitters. Joba is very close to being a MLB-usable product and he should see AA well before the year is done. He has the stuff and the makeup to succeed. If he can remain healthy, he could join the line of viable young Yankees starters parading to the
The people who have been wowed this year are Joba’s opposing hitters and every armchair fantasy prospector in the country.
Joba did end up in AA where he went 4-2, 3.35, 1.17 in 40.1 IP (7 starts, 8 apps). Opponents hit .220 off him and that was with an unfavorable .370 BHIP%. In AA he fanned 14.7/9 and the Yankees, desperate for bullpen help decided to see what he could do at AAA.
He made 3 apps with 1 start at that level not allowing a run over 8 IP while giving up 5 hits and 1 walks against 18 strikeouts … 18 … in 8 IP at AAA. That was all the Yankees needed to see before bringing him up.
In the majors Chamberlain has yet to give up a run in 14.1 IP, striking out 18 (11.3 K rate) with just 4 walks (2.5). He is holding opponents to a 0.77 WHIP and .148 OBA (with the help of a .238 BHIP%). The hitters in the majors will start to gain some traction on him as they see him more, but clearly, he has the ability to be very effective at this level.
Long Term Fantasy Grade: In Volume 9 I gave Joba a “B”. He has done plenty of extra credit work to up that grade. His health prospects are still an issue, as Joe Torre’s “Joba Rules” suggest. That will keep him down to a mere “A” as his final grade, but with a bullet.
Clayton Kershaw - SP – Dodgers
In Volume 13 of PC this year I wrote:
“Kershaw is already built to throw a baseball and as his body matures, he may be able to upgrade his mid-90s heat. He will tip 96 on occasion but Clay can pump out 93 mph fastballs with impressive consistency. He also has a plus curve that seems to take forever to get there and has good downward bite. He can show over 20 mph in separation between his fastball and curve and he is proficient with a change. That pitch is still a work in progress but the Dodgers staff knows that this kid takes coaching and feels confident of its development … Clay is scarily reminiscent of Orel Hershiser in stuff and the dichotomy between his laid back personality and bull dog (there ..I said it! …) approach in the mound. He is a ways away but Clay has #1 starter written all over him.”
After handling A with aplomb this year (7-5, 2.77, 1.25, .208 OBA, 12.3 K/9), Clayton hit AA at 19 years old and handled himself well for 24.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA while striking out 10.5/9. Opponents hit just .196 off him but Clayton had a huge tail wind in that regard in his .243 BHIP%. Most of the blood on this line came in his first two outings at AA and he settled down quite a bit after that. Overall, he finished with a 12.0/9 K rate over two levels, third in the entire minors. Admittedly, his numbers were mostly forged in the pitching-friendly Midwest League, but they do tell a story.
He also walked 6.2/9 (17) in that 24.2 AA IP after walking 4.6/9 in 97.1 A IP. That is a sharp departure from his 1.2 BB rate in rookie ball in 2006 and it is where his age vs. level shows up.
You have to keep his age in context. A 19-year-old kid handling AA hitters is a beautiful thing.
Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” back in Volume 13 and I refuse to up that grade until he turns 20. There is along way to go, but this kid looks like an elite pitcher in the making.
