Ryan Spilborghs: After a hot stretch, 7 home runs in 108 AB, Spilborghs power has gone MIA, 1 home runs in his last 86 AB. Outside of the mid-season surge, Spilborghs had never shown that kind of power in his previous major league trials, 4 home runs in 167 AB in 2005 and 2006, or in the high minors, 6 home runs in 255 Double-A AB and 15 home runs in 620 Triple-A AB. His high GB% of 48% in 2007 confirms that you should not expect the 28-year old to be a power source going forward. The rest of his skill is just ok, 83% Ct% and a .67 BB/K, making him more of a fourth outfielder type.
Chris Young: In his first full major league season, Young is showing quite a power/speed package, 30 home runs and 26 steals in 31 tries. A ridiculously low .180 BHIP% is depressing his .236 batting average. With his power and speed, he can get away with his current 76% Ct%, but he will have to improve his plate patience, 6.8% BB%, before he can become a high average hitter. At just 24 years of age, Young's power should get even better as his body matures and if his BHIP% normalizes next year, it will give him more opportunities to steal bases.
Chipper Jones: When healthy, Jones can still get it done, 26/93/.337 in just 475 AB, and the numbers are fully supported by outstanding underlying skills, 85% Ct% and a 1.07 BB/K. The problem is that this is the fourth year in a row that Chipper has missed time with injuries and at age 36, that is what he will be at the beginning of 2008, chronically injured players don't get healthier, they get worse.
Todd Helton: With his power in a sharp four-year decline, 2004/2005/2006/2007 home runs of 32/20/15/15, fantasy owners of Helton will have to be content with a first basemen whose excellent approach at the plate, 86% Ct% and a 1.55 BB/K, allows him to hit for a high average, 2005/2006/2007 batting averages of .320/.302/.314. At 34 years of age, this looks like the new level of power for Helton, which is just league average.
Ray Durham: It has been a tough season for Durham, 11/66/.215 in 451 AB. A .180 BHIP% is severely depressing his batting average, but Durham is not helping himself either with a lower Ct% of 83% vs. 88% and a major drop in power, 11 home runs and 22 doubles vs. 26 home runs and 30 doubles, from his career-year in 2006, 26/93/.293. With better luck, his batting average should bounce back next year, but at his age, he turns 36 in November, this is probably the new level of power.
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