First Pitch - September 12, 2007 - Best Skills 2007: Pitcher K/BB

Sep 12, 2007

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Best Skills 2007 - Pitcher K/BB

Good
morning everybody.Â Today we are going to
take a look at the pitchers who have shown the best K/BB ratios in the majors this season. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Why is this important? style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Because past research has shown a very strong
relationship between good K/BB ratios and success in the ERA and WHIP
categories.Â Sometimes you can find a
pitcher who has ratcheted up his skill level, but his ERA and WHIP have yet to
follow.Â This means that you can try to
nab him while he is still relatively under the radar of other owners. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The analysis will show if there are any such
finds to be had this year.

First,
however, a quick refresher on the importance of K/BB. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The information below is taken from a href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Reference-KBB.htm">research
article you can find in the href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Reference.htm">Fantistics
Reference Toolbox.Â

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>In the chart below, the ERA
and WHIP columns are self-explanatory, the K/BB column represents
the mean K/BB ratio for all pitchers that fell into the range specified in the
ERA or WHIP column, and % represents the percentage of players
(of the 347 player/season sample population) that fell into the ERA or WHIP
range in the first column.

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ERA	K/BB	%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	WHIP	K/BB	%
2.50 - below	4.5	2%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.00 - below	5.8	2%
2.51 - 3.00	3.6	6%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.01 - 1.10	4.6	5%
3.01 - 3.50	3.0	17%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.11 - 1.20	3.1	15%
3.51 - 4.00	2.5	19%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.21 - 1.30	2.5	24%
4.01 - 4.50	2.3	26%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.31 - 1.40	2.1	26%
4.51 - 5.00	2.0	15%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.41 - 1.50	1.8	18%
5.01 - up	1.8	15%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	1.51 - up	1.4	10%

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The higher the ratio of strikeouts
to walks, the higher level of control that pitcher has. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The higher the level of control, the better
pitcher he is.Â Better pitchers produce
better stats.Â Now here are two last
pieces of information that sum it up nicely, and will help put perspective on
the player data shown below.

style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>--Among players with a K/BB of
greater than 3.0, 75% of them had an ERA under 4.00. And ZERO of them had
an ERA over 5.00.

style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>--Among players with a K/BB of
greater than 3.0, 68% of them had a WHIP under 1.2. And ZERO of them had
a WHIP over 1.5.

You get the
idea.Â Now on to the pitchers with the
best K/BB ratios in 2007.Â Stats are
through games of 09/07.Â Pitchers needed
a minimum 15 games started to qualify.

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style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>INN style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WHIP	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BBI	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K/B
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sabathia, C.C. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CLE	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>211	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.24	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.16	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>182	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>32	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>5.7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Shields, James style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TB	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>200	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.01	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.14	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>174	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>34	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>5.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Santana, Johan style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIN	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>194	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.16	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.06	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>203	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>44	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Beckett, Josh style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BOS	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>174.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.30	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.15	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>165	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>36	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Maddux, Greg style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SD	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>175	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.19	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>94	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>21	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.5
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Smoltz, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ATL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>181.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.02	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>169	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>41	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sonnanstine, Andy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TB	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>110	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.73	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.30	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>81	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Harang, Aaron style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CIN	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>195.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.68	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.14	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>180	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.0
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hamels, Cole style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PHI	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>167.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.13	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>156	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>39	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.0
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Schilling, Curt style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BOS	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>131.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.04	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.29	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>88	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>22	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>4.0
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Blanton, Joe style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â OAK	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>205.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.81	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.16	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>125	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>32	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.9
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bedard, Erik style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BAL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>182	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.09	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>221	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>57	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.9
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Vazquez, Javier style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHW	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>187.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.98	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>171	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Towers, Josh style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TOR	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>103.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.40	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.38	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>73	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Peavy, Jake style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SD	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>188.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.43	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.06	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>210	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>58	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Byrd, Paul style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CLE	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>168	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.34	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.35	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>82	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>24	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.4
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Baker, Scott style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIN	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>126	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.14	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.29	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>91	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>27	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.4
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Haren, Dan style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â OAK	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>196	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.03	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.18	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>168	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.4
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bonderman, Jeremy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â DET	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>173	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.73	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.34	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>144	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bush, Dave style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>163	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.25	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.40	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>122	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>39	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hernandez, Felix style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SEA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>157	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.96	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.40	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>140	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hendrickson, Mark style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â LA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>113.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.24	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.40	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>87	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Lackey, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ANA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>195	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.19	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.26	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>152	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.1
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sheets, Ben style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>131.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.36	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.19	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>97	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>32	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>3.0

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>What can we learn from this
list?Â Well, for one thing we see some
well known quantity-type guys.Â These are
your Santana, Smoltz, Schilling, Maddux, Peavy, and Sheets. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Next, you have a group of very good pitchers
that have really come into their own over the last couple of years. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â These are guys that are valued, but maybe not
as highly as they should be, because their K/BB ratios are at elite
levels.Â In this group we find: Sabathia
(who has really taken it to another level this year), Beckett (ditto), Harang,
Hamels, Bedard, Haren, Bonderman, Felix, and Lackey. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The final group is the most interesting. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â They are a hodge-podge of potential emerging
talent and veteran hurlers.Â One set of
these guys are relatively unrespected, but prove they deserve more respect due
to their excellent K/BB ratios.Â I give
you: Joe Blanton, Josh
Towers, and Paul Byrd. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Finally, the young up-and-comers. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â These pitchers are worth an investment, and
look to be very good bets for the future if they can continue to demonstrate
this level of skill: Shields, Sonnanstine, Baker, and Hendrickson.