The month says "September"on my calendar, but for true fantasy players, this is our October. Fantasy playoffs have begun in head-to-head leagues. Fantasy GM's everywhere are making more roster moves than George Steinbrenner. Now is not the time to sleep. Now is certainly not the time to second guess your moves or wait until tomorrow. If you don't act now, there may not be a tomorrow.
Your free time should not be spent watching a new sitcom premiere. If I actually watched something other than baseball, I would be able to come up with the name of a new sitcom for the fall lineup. I guess I'll just have to wait for Fox's shameless fall promotions during the post-season. College football? NFL? Never heard of 'em. My fantasy football teams take a back seat. I'll gladly give up a couple of weeks of football for a fantasy baseball championship. We've been working on this for six months - mowing the lawn can wait a couple more weeks.
So as I crunch the numbers this week and looked at daily match-ups, I realized my biggest need for this weekend was pitching. Who do I start? Who's on the waiver wire for me to grab? I'm likely not the only guy who needs this information. And so, I offer you a weekend analysis of the top-5 most intriguing games for the weekend and my thoughts of each game's pitchers:
1. Seattle Mariners (Jeff Weaver) @ Detroit Tigers (Nate Robertson) [Saturday] One of these teams will still be in serious playoff contention at the end of this weekend. The other team is the Seattle Mariners. Seattle will have to face Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman in two games of this series. I can't see the Mariners winning either of those games, so Saturday's game becomes very important for the M's playoff hopes. Weaver gets the ball in a pressure situation and we all know how well he's done in those types of scenarios throughout his career (right Tiger and Yankee fans?) In his last game against the Tigers on July 15th, Weaver gave up 7 ER and 10 H in 5.0 IP. His other start against Detroit wasn't much better, giving up 6 ER and 10 H in 5.0 IP on May 10th. While Weaver did have a few decent start against some weaker teams at the end of July and the beginning of August, his last two starts against good offensive teams (Angels and Blue Jays) yielded non-quality starts and he didn't last past the 5th inning. On the flip side, Nate Robertson is also someone to avoid for Saturday (although I'd rather have him than Weaver if I had to choose between the two). He has 3 QS in his last 5 outings, but is coming off a pretty pitiful start against the Royals two starts ago when he gave up 6 ER in 4.1. His only start against Seattle on May 9th wasn't good either (4.2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER). And, to top it off, the Mariners probably have one of the hottest offenses of the last 30-days. As a team, despite losing 11 of their last 12 games, Seattle is hitting .309 over the last month compared to the next best team, the Angels, who are hitting .288.
2. Chicago Cubs (Carlos Zambrano) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Ian Snell) [Saturday] This is the battle of two of the coldest pitchers in the National League (I know, they're both on my team in one of my leagues). First, let's take a look at Carlos Zambrano (who has looked more like Victor Zambrano of late). In his 6 starts since the beginning of August, Big-Z is is posting an 8.29 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, H/9 of 12.0, and BB/9 of 5.9. Yes, your ace is putting up those kind of numbers with no signs of a turnaround in sight. The good news is that his K/9 has remained healthy at 7.2, but that's the only positive takeaway from his recent performance. Ian Snell hasn't been much better, but he does have slightly superior numbers compared to Zambrano for the same time period. Since August 1st, Snell has 7 starts and is posting a 5.08 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 10.8 H/9, and 3.5 BB/9. His K/9 has also remained solid at 8.1. Snell has two starts against the Cubs this year, one quality start of 7.0 IP and 2 ER and one non-QS of 5.0 IP of 4 ER ball. Zambrano has had the same result with one QS and one non-QS against the Pirates. The good start: 7.0 IP / 3 ER. The non-QS start: 6.0 IP / 4 ER. So what do you do when both pitchers have been equally as atrocious? Pitch them both. I think this will be a pretty awesome pitchers' dual on Saturday and a positive statistical correction is due for both of them.
3. Florida Marlins (Rick VandenHurk) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Adam Eaton) [Saturday] Another obscure match-up that could have fantasy and playoff impact. This one, between Rick VandenHurk and Adam Eaton, slightly favors one side. The envelope please: Adam Eaton is the winner. First, the main reasons not to consider Rick VandenHurk. His last start against the Phillies on August 7th resulted in 6 ER in 2.1 IP, 5 BB, and 5 hits. If that's enough for you to steer clear of RVH, he's on an 8 consecutive non-quality start streak dating back to July 22nd. In fact, he only has 2 quality starts in his 16 starts in 2007. Ok, so we toss out VandenHurk and turn to Adam Eaton. Let's first take a look at the Marlins offense as a team. Florida leads the major leagues in team strikeouts with 1,124 for the season, more than 100 more K's than the #2 team of the Devil Rays who have 1,119. Over the last 30-days, the Marlins rank in the bottom-5 in the NL in average at .261, driven by a seriously slumping Miguel Cabrera. However, in two starts against the Marlins this season, Adam Eaton has given up 12 ER in 10.1 IP with 4 HR. The positive side is he did record a total of 9 K's in those 10.1 IP. I'm concerned by the fact he hasn't recorded a quality start in his last 9 outings dating back to the beginning of July. But if he's going to break that streak, it will likely come against a team like Florida. And, from a run support standpoint, the Phillies rank in the top-5 in the NL over the last 30 days in runs, average, HR, OBP, and SB. If we're only looking at pitchers that may be available on the waiver wires in your league, Eaton may be one of your better choices for Saturday.
4. Oakland Athletics (Lenny Dinardo) @ Texas Rangers (Kevin Millwood) [Sunday] In an otherwise meaningless game, Sunday's A's / Rangers game has an interesting pitching match-up worth an eyebrow raise. Lenny Dinardo has three starts against Texas this season for a total of 18.3 IP. His ERA for those three outings is a dominating 1.96 with a WHIP of 1.09 and a BB/9 of 2.4. Two of those starts were QS for a final record of 2-1 against Texas. For the 2007 season, the Rangers as a whole rank in the bottom-5 in the AL in average at .260. Dinardo has had some problems of late, pitching three consecutive starts of non-QS ball. This may make him available in some of your leagues if frustrated owners decided to designate him for assignment to your free agent wires. According to CBS Sportsline, he's available in about 70% of all leagues. In the other dugout, we have veteran Kevin Millwood who also has had success against his Sunday opponent. In two quality starts against Oakland this season, Millwood has a 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, a solid K/9 of 7.5, and an inflated BB/9 of 5.3. His last outing KC wasn't anything to write home about, but in 6 starts in August, he posted a 2-2 record, a 2.95 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. Like Dinardo, Millwood is available in about 60% of all leagues. On a side note, I looked at lefty/righty splits for the Rangers against lefties (Dinardo) and the A's against righties (Millwood). Both teams ranked in the bottom five in most offensive categories for those respective splits. So who am I picking? If I was a Vegas odds maker, I'd put a "pick 'em"line on this one. But, if you're going to force me to make a pick, I'd go with the better splits from Dinardo.
5. Chicago Cubs (Steve Trachsel) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Matt Morris) [Sunday] Well, the good news here is that Trachsel is so old, the Cubs can avoid paying his salary by letting him claim social security. But in all seriousness, say what you want about Trachsel, but he has posted 6 quality starts in his last 7 outings and hasn't given up more than 3 ER in any of those 7 starts. Since August 1st, he's posting a 2.66 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a BB/9 of 3.9. Of course, his K/9 is about as low as it gets at 2.3, but you know he's not a strikeout pitcher. Obviously, Trachsel is no stranger to the National League and is quite familiar with the mound at Wrigley Field. When the Cubs need it most, I think the veteran Trachsel will come through in the clutch and hurl a solid quality start against one of the weaker teams in the league. For the season, the Pirates rank 11th in the NL in team average at .262 and 9th in runs scored at 630. However, one concern I have for Sunday is that the Pirates have actually been one of the best NL offensive teams over the last 30 days, scoring more runs (178) than any other team in the last month while posting a .286 average and .827 OPS. With that said, I still think Trachsel is a good spot start and he's only owned in about 15% of the leagues right now. Of all the Pirates that have a history against Trachsel, the combined performance is a pitiful 13-for-77 (BAA of .169) with only 2 HR and 6 RBI. Ten-year veteran Matt Morris will face-off against Trachsel and the Cubbies on Sunday. In his only start against Chicago this season, Morris lasted 4.2 IP and gave up 12 hits, 8 runs (5 earned), and didn't strike out a single batter. I'm sure he'd like to forget about that one. I'm sure he would also like to forget about his performance since the all-star break. He's 1-4 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .335 BAA in 11 starts. Ouch. Performing the same analysis on Morris that I did with Trachsel, active Cubs as a collective whole have a 65-for-239 (BAA of .272) history against the Pirates righty with 11 HR and a .789 OPS. With the Cubs playing for keeps and doing everything they can to maintain their spot on top of the NL Central, I would stay away from Morris and go with Trachsel on this one.
The Takeaway
These are just a handful of games that looked intriguing on the surface. Obviously there are plenty of pitch-and-ditch opportunities out there, but I feel these 5 raised the biggest question marks given recent pitching trends and team offensive streakiness. I would be more than happy to offer my opinion on any of the other pitching match-ups for the weekend (jribando@fantistics.com). Good luck this weekend and if you're in head-to-head leagues, I hope to see you here on Monday. If not, there's always Monday Night Football.
