Delmon Young:
You wouldn't notice it unless you were paying close attention but Delmon Young is making some serious strides in the 2nd half of this season. He went 2-4 with a HR last night, his 12th on the season and continues to show improvements across the board in the 2nd half. For example, his contact rate has improved from 79% to 84%, his extra base hit % has improved from 8.1% to 8.2%, and his BB Rate has improved from 4.1% to 5.0%. The improvements aren't dramatic but we're talking about a soon-to-be 22 year old hitting over .290 with 12 HR's and 81 RBI's. For Young to really be the elite superstar some have projected, he'll have to start being a bit more selective at the plate, but it looks like at the worst he'll develop into a potential 30-20 threat with solid defense: a potential all star caliber player. He's making small steps in the 2nd half of 2007 and I think 2008 will be the nice breakout year for fantasy owners where he gets to the .290-30-100-20 range.
AJ Burnett:
The year AJ Burnett is able to put it all together and stay healthy will end up being a great one for fantasy owners. Burnett was phenomenal again on Saturday night allowing only 1 ER in 8 innings against the DRays. He struck out 8 and only walked 1 while allowing 3 hits and was in line to improve his record to 9-7 before Jeremy Accardo decided to be generous to DRay hitters. It marks the 6th consecutive quality start for Burnett and the 4th time in his last 5 outings where he's struck out at least 6 batters. Burnett's shown some legitimate improvement in his K Rate and his GB Rate this season and has actually been a bit unlucky with HR's allowed. The only flaw has been an increase in his BB Rate, which if controlled and with better health suggests Burnett could be a Cy Young contender if he ever put it all together. AJ will have his hands full making it 7 quality starts in a row next week as he's scheduled to face the Yankees. At this point though it's tough not to ride the hot hand if you're playing in h2h leagues.
Ian Kinsler:
Remember a certain Fantistics writer pummeling you with Ian Kinsler propaganda at the beginning of the season? Well I've conveniently picked today as the time to re-assess Kinsler's value at the 2B position. While I may have gone a bit too far in labeling him the clear cut #2 2B in all of fantasy baseball this year, his current .275-.355-.474 line with 19 HR's, 78 Runs, 56 RBI's, and 19 SB's in just 109 games certainly makes him worth some of the touting we gave him earlier this season. Kinsler's been absurdly hot over the last 2-3 weeks racking up multi hit games in 10 of his last 14, going 39-65 during that span. Most of this has been a direct regression in his BHIP% which was undeservingly low for much of the season, but he has shown a strong 1.00 EYE during the span with good power, extra base hit % of 13.3%. Kinsler's likely going to be a 20-20 option in just under 130 games this season and is showing his legitimate 25-25 potential with a .280 batting average.
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
I'm not sure there is a set of fantasy owners I feel more for than those who own Daisuke Matsuzaka and are fighting in the playoffs this week. Matsuzaka came in with a tasty two start week against Toronto and Baltimore and has left fantasy owners with 15 ER's in 8 innings along with 20 base-runners allowed. He's been awful this week and likely cost many a fantasy owner their shot at a title with these last two disasters. Last night's was even more surprising given the lineup the Orioles put out there. Matsuzaka's season hasn't been as great as advertised and it's mainly because of his unwillingness to throw strikes consistently. His BB Rate continues to escalate, now sitting at .39, and has been closer to .47 since the end of May. He's going to need to learn to trust his stuff at this level if he's going to be an elite pitcher. He's already been good, but he'll need better command to ever be great. His next start comes against the Yankees, and is one that you have to consider skipping if you're a Dice-K owner right now, that is if you're still playing for anything. Insert Kamikaze joke here.
Gary Sheffield:
Sheff went 0-5 last night against previously mentioned Mr. Weaver and is now 0-11 since his return. That's 0-11 with 4 K's and gives me enough reason to probably avoid Sheffield for those heading into playoff matchups this week with weekly lineup settings. The increased K Rate suggests he doesn't quite have his timing yet and while 7 games are on the schedule including an appetizing 3 games against the AAAA Texas Rangers are on the schedule I'd still sit him this week. Don't get sucked into name value of these guys, pay attention to the numbers and right now the numbers suggest Sheff isn't the Sheff we're used to just yet, keep him reserved in favor of a safer option. In my opinion the risk outweighs the reward in this instance.
