Juan Gutierrez – Astros
Starter – Throws Right – 6-3, 200 – 7/14/1983
The Astros recalled 24-year-old right-hander Juan Gutierrez from AAA Round Rock this week to fill out the middle of their bullpen in the wake of an injury to Stephen Randolph.
The Venezuelan native is in their long-term plans as a back-of-the rotation starter because he has three, maybe four, fairly developed pitches. Two or three of those pitches have out-pitch potential, including a fastball with good life, as well as a curve and a change that are both in development.
I am unclear on the number of pitches he throws because his fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and it often has a good natural sink. This ball is heavily and is only a mph or two off his standard fastball so it is hard to tell whether he has two fastballs or a fastball and a sinker. If it is a sinker, it doesn’t really matter because there isn’t much delta between that and his fastball so a speed change isn’t a factor.
Juan is still at the point where he wants to blow everyone away and he has not really figured out how good his sinker and change are. Some in the Astros organization feel his change is better than his fastball/sinker.
Gutierrez missed significant time in 2006 with a tender elbow but he has been generally healthy. His stat block shows his struggles with control as well as his ability to contain hitters (his healthy, for a starter, OBA).
Juan needs to limit his walks more and gain some faith in his secondary pitches. He will work in middle relief for now but he is knocking on the door of the Astros’ rotation and should be factor in spring training next year.
There is some ceiling with Juan if all goes as well as it can. He looks to be aimed at a career as a #4 or #5 starter at a minimum however, probably starting in 2008.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 AA 8 4 3.04 103.2 9.2 3.0 0.9 .243 1.23
2007 AAA 5 9 3.96 145.1 6.3 3.4 1.1 .253 1.33
Jair Jurrjens – Tigers
Starter – Throws Right – 6-1, 160 – 1/29/1986
Jair is 6-1, and 160 pounds. I just find that fascinating.
He made his MLB debut on August 15th going 7 IP allowing the Indians 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 3 Ks.
The
Jairs’ K/BB ratio was outstanding in high A in 2006 with 10 BBs against 51 Ks. That rate suffered in his first AA tour but he rebounded nicely in AA this year. Jurrjens could still cut his walk rate but at his age, his control is still ahead of schedule.
It was Jairs’ work in the WBC that raised his prospect profile beyond that of a low-end starter. At 21 years old, he has obviously come a long way in a short time. His work in AA this year has been good when you consider his age but the Tigers may be rushing him.
To be successful Jair still has a lot of work to do on his secondary and pitches and his youth will work against him at the MLB level for a while. With enough experience and development, Jurrjens may become a quality fantasy starter, but it is not likely to happen in 2007 or even 2008.
Jair has some ceiling as well, but the range of possible outcomes here is wide, and he is still in the high-risk pile.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – C+
2006 A+ 5 0 2.08 73.2 7.2 1.2 0.5 .203 0.86
2006 AA 4 3 3.36 67.0 7.1 2.8 0.9 .273 1.37
2007 AA 7 5 3.20 112.2 7.5 2.5 0.6 .261 1.27
2007 MLB 0 1 5.14 7.0 3.9 2.6 1.3 .202 1.00
Brendan Ryan – Cardinals
Shortstop – Bats Right – 6-2, 195 – 3/26/1982
Ryan was recalled on August 12th after Adam Kennedy went down with a torn meniscus. He is no stranger to injury himself having missed more than half of 2006 with ligament damage in his ring finger and wrist. Brendan will take over the regular second base duties for the Cards, quite possibly for the remainder of the season.
Since returning from AAA Ryan is 4 for -13 with a HR and 4 RBI. He has 3 HRs on the year, which is already a pro-career high, but there is little in his minor league history to indicate his .333 batting average or his power is for real.
Ryan was once a top prospect in the organization but his injury history and a lack of discipline at the plate, and in the field, have hurt his promise. Capable of playing SS, 2B and 3B, Ryan is mediocre at all positions and sometimes makes the unnecessary error that drive managers nuts.
In the lower levels, he stole 40+ bases in two A-ball seasons but he had stolen just 18 bases in his next 459 pro ABs before busting out again with 17 in AAA this year.
Ryan makes good contact as you can tell by his K rate, but his BB rates suggest he is over anxious at the plate. This year, in his second tour of AAA he looked more comfortable, doubling his BB rate and raising his average to .272 with a neutral .307 BHIP%. Last years .154 average in his short AAA stop was fueled by a .136 BHIP%
Ryan is back on the prospect radar this year and he has a growth opportunity as the result of Kennedy’s injury. He has shown you pretty much all of his pop but there may be a small SB contribution to be had if you need help in that column.
Overall, it doesn’t appear that Ryan is poised to make much of a fantasy impact, but he has some regular ABs and that is never a bad thing.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – C-
Seas
2006 A- 34 0 0 1 .235 8.1% 11.8% .235 .533
2006 A+ 14 1 0 1 .429 0.0% 14.3% .500 .929
2006 AA 43 1 0 1 .302 6.5% 14.0% .326 .673
2006 AAA 26 1 1 1 .154 3.7% 11.5% .269 .454
2007 AAA 323 15 1 17 .272 7.2% 12.1% .341 .665
2007 MLB 75 5 3 1 .333 11.8% 9.3% .480 .892
