Justin Upton:
I decided to check out all the hype on Upton so I tuned into the Dodgers-DBacks game on Friday night and caught the youngster's first big league start. Upton's stat line didn't look to impressive as he went 0-4, but his approach at the plate seemed pretty advanced and he didn't look anxious up there. He just missed a HR in his first AB, lined out in his 2nd and then was retired without much noise in the final 2 AB's. I always preach patience when rushing out on youngsters because the majority of young players take time to develop into the stars they're projected to be and I imagine the same will happen with young Justin. However, he's a special talent in the mold of Griffey (scouts most favorite comparison) and while he'll struggle to hit for average right away he should add some nice power immediately and long-term should be an absolute monster. He's only 19, so it's going to take some time but this kid has as high of a ceiling as anyone in the game and is an immediate claim in all keeper formats.
Pat Burrell:
It seems like it's about time for my annual "I don't get why Phillies fans hate Pat Burrell so much"blurb, except they're probably not hating him too much right now. Burrell's on a massive hot streak that has seen him hit 4 HR's and 3 2B's in the last 8 games. He's showing his usual good power and this year he has even bumped up his plate discipline sporting an EYE over 1 thanks to an increased BB Rate and decreased K Rate. The numbers are fantastic and the improvements are real, of course he's had .800+ OPS seasons in 5 of the last 6 years and Phils fans still hate him, so maybe even this recent hot streak hasn't changed things.
Roy Oswalt:
I'm not sure you can find another writer on this site or maybe anywhere that's been as down on Oswalt this year as I have and maybe I've been too harsh on him. Last blurb I suggested Oswalt's ERA should be closer to 4 and while his expected ERA rested at 4.05 heading into last night's game, Oswalt's quietly turning his season around. In his last 38 1/3 innings Oswalt's struck out 36 and walked 5. The K's are impressive although he has faced some high K teams (CHI, PHI, FLA, PIT) during this stretch the far more important number to me is the 5 BB's. He faced some solid offenses during this stretch in CHI, PHI, NYM and while his ERA numbers weren't spectacular the elite control is what has always made Roy so valuable. It has been the main reason his decline's been so slow because while he's continued to strike out fewer and fewer batters, he always kept trimming the BB's alongside it. This season the BB's jumped and all of the sudden Roy wasn't an elite pitcher. With Oswalt's long track record of excellent control I'm willing to write off a few bad months and am now under the impression Oswalt will pitch closer to the 3.20-3.50 ERA area the rest of the way. He's still having a little bit of luck with his Strand Rate and that will keep him up above the 3.00 ERA area, but he should offer very solid value the rest of the way. I still think he's overrated on the whole and is a lot closer to the John Lackey/Dan Haren range than the Johan Santan/Erik Bedard range.
Dontrelle Willis:
Willis owners have to feel a bit better after Dontrelle threw his 2nd consecutive quality start tossing 6 1/3 innings against the Astros on Friday and only surrendering 3 ER's on 6 Hits and 1 BB. Willis struck out 5 but took his 11th loss of the season in the process. Willis reminds me a bit of Barry Zito in terms of their name value outweighing their actual production and both have similar K and BB Rates with each moving in the wrong direction. I live in South FL and have the pleasure of listening to Dontrelle on some radio spots and he's a TREMENDOUS young man and a fantastic ambassador for the sport, but that doesn't mean he should be on your fantasy team. At this point big names like Dontrelle and Zito are no more valuable than a Jeff Francis, which is a reminder not to let name value get in the way of evaluating players. We play this game for the stats not who compiles the prettiest roster, so beware of guys like Willis and Zito who have big name value but just adequate production.
Jason Bay:
A few weeks back I wrote a blurb suggesting to try to con other owners into thinking they were buying low on a 3rd or 4th round talent and get back some decent return on Jason Bay's disappointing season, since then Bay's been hot going 16-39 (.410) since my post with 3 HR's and 9 RBI's. While some would say I'm a fool, I'm telling his owners this gives you an even better chance to try to recoup value on Bay. Even during this brief hot streak Bay's still showing an unimpressive .50 EYE and striking out 20+% of the time. On top of that he only has 4 extra base hits in this period. The BB's are down, the power numbers are down, and the speed is down. So what is there to like? If you can convince an owner in your league that Bay is just simply "regressing to the mean"and can get good value for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
