NL Player Spotlight - August 17, 2007

Lou Blasi

Aug 17, 2007

Wandy Rodriguez went 5 innings last night allowing 4 runs, only 2 earned. On 5 hits and a walk while striking out two. Mike Lamb contributed errors at first base in the 5^th and 6^th as Wandy fell to 7-11 on the year with a 4.31 ERA. This loss was on the road in LA and Wandy is now 1-9 with a 7.80 ERA away from home this year, while he is 6-2, 1.65 while pitching deep in the heart of Texas. He is pitching at home in his next start as it turns out, against the Nationals on Tuesday and then perhaps again on Sunday as the Astros host the Pirates. That looks like a favorable two start week next week. He had 24 starts last year and his home/road splits were pretty even, and the same was true in 25 appearances and 22 starts in 2005. Therefore, this year’s split is not pathological, but it is too stark to ignore.

Derek Lowe collected his first win in nearly two months, throwing 7 shutout IP at the Astros on Thursday. Derek fanned 2 while allowing 5 hits, as he improved to 9-11 and lowered his ERA to 3.45 on the year. We all know that Lowe throws ground balls and on a night like this when he pitched so well, you can bet that he limited his walked (0) and yes, had the sinker working. Derek’s GB/FB split was 13-2 and the Dodgers turned three twin-killings on the night. This snaps a 5-decision losing streak and a string of 8 starts without a win. The Phillies and Cole Hamels are next on Wednesday, making him a one-start next week despite the Thursday start this week. Keep in mind also that sinkerball pitchers do not always benefit from the extra rest. Many feel that a tired sinkerballer imparts better action. I’m just saying some say … that is all I am saying … In Lowe’s case however his extra rest splits have been fine until you get back to 2005 when he was 2-3, 6.40. In 2004 he was 6-6, 6.09 on extra rest. Last year he was 4-2, 2.87 and so far this year he is 4-3, 2.73. Maybe he has found a routine to deal with the extra rest.

We could pick on any number of pitchers from last night 11-9 win by the Padres over the Rockies but Jeremy Affledt was the games loser and he is the likely source of the blaze. He gave up 5 runs, all earned on 4 hits (1 HR) and walk without getting an out. That has his owners being treated for third degree burns this morning. Three of the five hitters the left-hander faced were lefties too and lefties are hitting .296 off him this season as opposed to RHHs who are hitting just .202 (I’ll pause while you read that again … ready?). Last year the lefty/righty split was .212/.289. This is why managers and fantasy sports writers drink. Affeldt’s ERA rose nearly a full run last night to 3.47.

Pete Laforest homered in his first start since being called up on Thursday and he did off left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt. He went 3- for -3 in fact with 2 Rbi and a walk. He will back up Josh Bard in the wake of the injury to Mike Barrett. Perhaps more telling was that Rockies were 4- for -4 in SB attempts off La Forest. Three of those came off Clay Hensley as well so he needs to take some of the blame, but Troy Tulowitzki stole just his 6^th base of the year and Matt Holiday had 2 (count ‘em), his 8^th and 9^th of the year and the second one was a theft of third. Clearly, the Padres had issues holding baserunners last night.

Chuck James allowed the B*nds-less Giants 6 runs, all earned, in just 3.2 innings of work on Thursday. He gave up 5 hits and a walk while striking out two. He was just 2-7 in his GB split and that just does not work for him. I have never been a big James fan. There will be nights like this. He fans 6.4 per nine, but he walks more than half of that back to his opponents (3.6 this year). Chuck does not throw GBs and so he gives up 1.6 HR/9. Chuck is 9-9 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this year and he is benefiting from a favorable 81.4% strand percentage and slightly favorable .286 BHIP%. Last year his BHIP% was a downright friendly .249 and he stranded 79.4%. Those are the underpinnings of his solid looking but soft 11-4, 3.78, 1.24 line in 2006. I hate to say I told you so … Ah who am I kidding? I love to say I told you so. And with a more normalized strand percentage this season could look a lot worse.

Chris Young has been like starting my old 1971 Dodge Challenger when I was kid. Sometimes it would fire and roar like the muscle car I knew it was, but it usually just went back to sleep 10 second later, leaving me with ten minutes of starter fluid and ungentlemanly words before it fired again. Young roared last night going 3- for -4 with a double and his 22^nd HR of the year … Yes he has that many. That’s four more than Jason Bay by the way. And at, now, .236 he’s within 20 points of Jason in batting average. His 21.9% K rate is not what you’d like but it isn’t awful. His 6.1% BB rate is more uncomfortable, especially considering he managed an very nice 11.5% in his last tour at AAA in 2006. Chris is working against an unfavorable .251 BHIP%, which combined with the BB rate, suggests he needs to bring pitchers to him more and work more hitters counts. He is also hitting more balls on the ground than you would like but that may be the result of hitting out of the leadoff slot. There are some issues in his first full season, but Chris’ potential (believe it or not he is 1 SB away from a 20/20 season) is clear. Stay the course.

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Aug 17, 2007

Lou Blasi @LouBlasi

One of the original Fantistics analysts, starting in 1999. Currently serves as top prospect scout, along with hosting The Fantistics Insider Baseball Show on SiriusXM.