Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez is putting on a nice power display for the Reds this year, 13 home runs and 18 doubles in 288 AB. He is just 30 years old and has showed power before, 18 home runs in 2003 and 23 in 2004, both years playing in a pitcher's park in Florida. His FB% of 46% is right around his historic levels, so the power is no fluke. It also doesn't hurt that he is playing his home games in a stadium that increases right-handed batting power by 19%. A poor batting eye of .26 and so-so Ct% of 81% means that there will be batting average downside, .253 this year, to go with the power.
Claudio Vargas: Vargas continues to tease us with good skills, 8.0 K/9 and a 6-1 record, but he has just an average 4.29 ERA, despite having a 78% strand rate. Over the course of his career, his two biggest problems have been walks and gopheritis and this year is no exception, 3.8 BB/9 and 15 home runs allowed in 77.2 innings. As a fly ball pitcher, 45% FB% this year, he will have to live with some home runs allowed, but moving to a more favorable pitcher's park has not helped, 9 home runs allowed in 45.1 innings at Miller Park. If he continues with this deadly combination of high walks and home runs allowed, the wins could dry up and his ERA will head north.
Todd Wellemeyer: After two consecutive effective starts, 3 ER in 11 innings, Wellemeyer came back to earth, allowing 4 ER in 3 innings against Arizona last night. For the year, his BB/9 is still a very high 4.5 and he has allowed 11 home runs in 53.2 innings. Don't believe in the LaRussa/Duncan magic with Wellemeyer, he should be avoided in all formats.
Bobby Howry: It looks like Howry will be the closer while Ryan Dempster is out. Last night he picked up his third save of the season with 2 K's to close out a 3-1 victory against the feeble Washington Nationals. Howry's skills are off from last year, 2006/2007 K/9's of 8.3/7.1 and BB/9's of 2.0/2.7, which is leading to a rise in his ERA, 4.24 up from 3.17. The four-year uptrend in his FB%, 2004/2005/2006/2007 FB%'s of 40%/41%/44%/47%, is worrisome, especially when closing in some of the smaller NL parks including his home park. Finally, he may lack the guile to succeed, as over the last three seasons, he has blown an incredible 10 saves in 21 opportunities.
Brandon Phillips: Phillips is proving that his breakout season in 2006 was not a fluke by showing a nice power/speed package, 16/46/.271 with 15 stolen bases in 20 attempts. There are conflicting signals on his batting average potential. A depressed .235 BHIP% and his power/speed point to some batting average upside, however his poor batting eye of .34 and decent Ct% of 84% say otherwise.
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