All this talk about Brandon Webb's control has failed to mention one thing-it's improving. Yesterday he enjoyed his best start in almost a month, going seven strong innings, in which he surrendered three runs, two of which were earned, on five hits and only one walk while striking out four. Unfortunately Chicago's Jason Marquis was better and Webb fell to 8-8 on the season. Webb's BB rate is, indeed, up from his career norms, but he's gotten better as the season has progressed. His BB/9 IP rate has gone from 3.42 in April to 3.09 in May to 3.07 in June to 2.80 so far in July. Meanwhile his K rate, which had steadily hovered in the 7.6 range, has jumped to 9.4. Based on the number of quality starts he's had, Webb is only one short of his expected win total and his expected ERA (3.60) is only .22 points higher than his actual ERA, which means he hasn't been especially lucky or unlucky at this point in the season. He has approximately 12 more starts this year and has to win only half to reach the 14 wins we projected for him prior to the season.
Brad Lidge converted his second consecutive save opportunity, giving him two saves on the season, but it was sketchy. Lidge allowed a lead off single and had a runner on second with one out in the bottom of the ninth when Jack Wilson sacrificed. Lidge then walked Xavier Nady and hit Nate McLouth with a pitch to load the bases, before fanning the next two batters to earn his second save. The Astros insist Lidge isn't on the trading block, which might be comforting to their closer, but doesn't bode well for Lidge owners, who can't be happy with Houston's 41-55 record heading into Friday's game. Astros pitchers have only 31 save opportunities in 96 games, which projects to 52 over the course of the season. Even if Lidge is perfect over the rest of the season, he'll end up with 23 saves. Pray that Astros management is blowing smoke up Lidge's ass and that he'll end up with a contender by the end of the month.
Willy Taveras is enjoying a career year, which isn't surprising considering he's playing half his games in Coors Field (it may not be the homer haven it once was, but it's still fifth in runs). Taveras went 2-for-5 last night with two runs scored and a stolen base and he's now hitting .321 on the season with 53 runs and 24 stolen bases. Taveras has taken advantage of Coors to the tune of a .341 AVG, an OBP of .382 and an SLG of .437, but he's no slouch on the road either, hitting .303/.342/.342 away from Coors. Both of his home runs have come in Colorado, but I'm guessing you have Taveras in your lineup to score runs and steal bases and those numbers are split right down the middle regardless of the venue.
Roy Oswalt left last night's game with a chest injury (it was officially reported as a costochondral irritation), but he walked away with his ninth win after tossing six innings of very good ball. He allowed only one run on seven hits and no walks and fanned four before leaving in favor of Dan Wheeler, who earned his fifth hold of the season. He improved his July record to 2-1 and reduced his ERA to 5.61, which doesn't sound that great until you realize that his ERA this month was 6.86 prior to last night's start. Oswalt's ERA is almost a full run higher this year than last (and in 2005 for that matter) and would be the highest of his career if the season were to end today. Things aren't all that bad, though; his K/BB ratio of 7.0 is well above his season mark of 2.17. On the other hand his ERA is more than half a run lower than his expected ERA (4.38), which shows he's been a little lucky to this point. He admitted that he's not sure whether he'll be able to make his next start and that the injury is similar to one he suffered in 2004 when he went 20-10 with a 3.49 ERA. The good news is he made a career high 35 starts that year and followed that up with another 35 starts in 2005. The bad news is he may be heading for the DL.
Wes Helms went 2-for-4 last night to raise his AVG to .260, but it's an incredibly soft .260 as Helms hasn't displayed the power that many expected of him after he hit 10 home runs in 240 at-bats for the Marlins last year. Helms has only three home runs and 26 RBIs in 73 games for the Phillies and his .365 SLG is more than 200 points lower than it was in 2006 and the second lowest mark of his career. The good news (if there is good news) is that he's belted those three homers in his last 57 at-bats, which suggests he's about to "break out." The better news is that he's a much better hitter in the second half of the season than he is in the first half, posting a .915 OPS after the All-Star break vs. a .732 mark prior to it. His .344/.400/.563 marks in July certainly back that trend up. If you've held onto him this long, put him in your line up and watch him go. Otherwise try to pry him from a rival owner and offer peanuts in return, which is all it'll take to get him.
