Kaz Matsui:
It's been a tale of two Matsui's over the last few weeks as Hideki has put on a show while Kaz has struggled mightily. Matsui's gone 3-28 since the Rockies hit the road and this only emphasizes his massive splits this season at home and on the road. Kaz Matsui at home is one of the top 5 2B in fantasy hitting .348-.383-.539 while on the road he's gone .242-.281-.344. With 7 home games on the schedule this week Kaz makes for an adequate play but be aware of these home/road tendencies and understand that Matsui isn't the .320+ hitter he was showing earlier in the season, he's a nice source of steals and runs but he's nothing too special and should really only be used when he's at home.
Jason Bay:
In another blurb today on Carlos Beltran I talked about how indicators are sometimes more important than the actual performance when evaluating a player that's in a slump. Unfortunately in the case of Jason Bay, the peripherals don't give us much hope for a turnaround. Bay's K Rate over the last month has actually jumped above to 28% and he's shown almost no power with only 1 extra base hit in his last 68 AB's. The numbers just don't suggest a big turnaround coming anytime soon, if you have the opportunity to take advantage of someone thinking they're buying low on a 3rd or 4th round talent it's worth looking at moving Bay at this point as he looks like a shell of the player we saw the last few seasons.
Sean Marshall:
Marshall strung together another quality start allowing only 2 earned runs in 6 innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He lowered his ERA to 3.25 on the season and appears to be showing genuine improvements in his K and BB Rates along with a decreased HR Rate in comparison to his rookie campaign in 2006. While the improvements in Marshall are noticeable, I still don't believe he's much more of a spot starting option in Mixed formats and a decent back-end of the rotation guy in deeper leagues. This is a bit against the grain because his peripherals actually do support some of the improvements he's made this season, however I see a trend that reminds me more of 2006. Marshall struck out 22 batters and walked 5 in his first 20 innings and since then has only struck out 23 and walked 16 in his last 43 2/3 innings for a K Rate of .53 and a walk rate of .36. This is a bit more in line with last year's numbers and his current .77 Strand Rate is unsustainable given the low K rates. Marshall's the perfect sell high candidate in my mind and someone that will finish with an ERA closer to 4.25 than 3.25 this season.
Jake Peavy:
I don't think there's going to be a better time to potentially buy low on Peavy. I know I know, suggesting buying low on a guy with a sub 2.50 ERA and K Rate over 1 seems ridiculous right? Well since Peavy's start got pushed back after the all star break there's been some concern in the fantasy world that Peavy might just not be right and after two un-Peavy like starts I think this suggestion might gain some steam. The truth is Peavy built up his ridiculous stats earlier this season on one of the easier schedules for any pitcher, facing bottom of the barrel offenses in 7 of his first 10 starts. His recent struggles have come against Philly, the Mets, and the Marlins who represent 3 of the top 12 offenses in baseball. Combine the tough schedule with a slight regression in his Strand Rate and you get a version of Peavy that looks just a little off. With a 2nd half schedule loaded with NL West opponents, Peavy should be able to put together a great finish to the season picking off the likes of the DBacks and Giants and will get things going with another more Peavy-esque start in Houston.
Adrian Gonzalez:
I've been saying this for the last few weeks and last week Gonzalez started to crank it up a bit, but I really feel an extended hot streak is coming for Gonzalez, much more beneficial than the recent 9-30 stretch. Gonzalez's EYE has improved a bit in July and he's only struck out 4 times in his last 38 AB's, while posting 5 2B's and 1 HR during that time frame. Gonzalez has derived much of his total production this year from a few extended hot streaks and I think another one's coming, look for this upcoming week with games in COL and HOU to be a big one.
