Nelson Cruz:
Cruz celebrated his return to the bigs with a 2-3 effort on Saturday night with 2 HR's and 5 RBI's. This is what Cruz does, he has incredible raw power and has been a big time power threat throughout his professional career. However he's never been able to overcome his strikeout problems. He's 27 and needs to put something together in this 2nd half with Texas if he's going to ever establish himself as a major league hitter. He was slugging near .700 at AAA and showed solid plate discipline (for him), but he hasn't been able to put it together in his 2 extended stints at the big league level. He's a viable option in AL Only leagues and deep deep Mixed leagues, but he's the type of guy that you take a flier on if you're near the middle of your standings or towards the back end and are hoping to catch lightening in a bottle. He's a high volatility option that could provide decent value especially with his raw power and hitting in Arlington, but he's not someone you want to take a flier on if you're near the top of your standings because he could provide significant batting average downside.
James Shields:
Shields has been scuffling a bit of late and has seemingly lost the confidence of many fantasy owners as I've seen him start becoming available in some mixed leagues. This comes after Shields has been shelled a few times and his K Rates have started dropping a bit. However on Saturday night he got back on track putting together a solid 5 innings vs. a loaded Red Sox lineup. Shields struck out 7 and walked 1 in his 5 innings of work in which he allowed 3 ER's on 6 hits. The K Rate is the big indicator that I liked to see here from Shields. He has great control, so he'll continue to be a solid contributor in WHIP and while he's becoming more hittable of late some of that has to do with the tough schedule (NYY twice, BOS, CLE, @ COL). Shields should be able to get back on track with his next start against Baltimore and should continue to be looked at as a mid-rotation starter with upside in mixed leagues and someone that you may occasionally want to sit when facing some of the elite offenses in the big leagues.
Jon Lester:
Lester's 2nd start of the season was another decent outing as he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed 4 ER's on 6 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 3. The important number for Lester is the BB's as this was an issue during his stint at the major league level last season and one of the main reasons I'm not a big believer in Lester for the stretch run. Lester's a phenomenal talent and someone I like a lot long term, but last year's struggles with control led to short outings, high BB totals, and consequently a high WHIP. Lester walked 3 in his first start against a patient Indians offense and then only walked 1 in a start against one of the least patient organizations in all of baseball in the Devil Rays, so it's tough to get a good grasp on Lester's control at this point. Lester's a guy with a lot of hype and is pitching in a great situation with the Red Sox lineup supporting him so I'm sure many owners have gone out and acquired him already. While I don't mind the speculative pickup, I'm not one that's going to be participating. I continue to think Lester's control will eventually limit his value to spot starting in mixed leagues and only truly viable in deeper leagues. Lester's next start will come against a Seattle team that doesn't take many walks either, so we may not see the control issues pop up immediately but I think they'll ultimately plague the youngster this year.
Travis Hafner:
It seems like every time Hafner hits one out I start buying into the idea that this is the one that's going to spur on an extended hot streak in which Hafner just erupts. But when you look at his monthly stats this season they've been pretty steadily declining in his Slugging % and even in his EYE (which had been elite all season until July where it's regressed a bit). While I'm as big of a Pronk fan as you'll find, at some point we have to stop waiting right? Pronk's peripherals actually support this power outage as he's sporting a career high in his GB Rate. Now his HR:FB Ratio is a bit lower this season, which would suggest there's some improvement in the power department to come, a massive breakout isn't going to happen for Pronk unless he starts getting more consistent lift on the ball. The HR last night was Pronk's 1st extra base hit in his last 8 games and he only has 2 extra base hits in his last 14 games, I'm starting to lose faith in the big breakout and it breaks my heart as a man heavily invested in Pronk both emotionally and from a fantasy perspective.
Mark Buehrle:
The difference between '06 Buehrle and '07 Buehrle is night and day, but do the peripherals match it? The answer is most certainly yes as Buehrle's reduced his HR's allowed back to his career norms and got his K Rate back up to previous levels. However the improvements this year aren't quite as strong as his ERA has shown. Buehrle's been aided by a strong .79 Strand Rate that's helping keep his ERA about a half run lower than it should be. With this in mind and Buehrle coming off a month in which he posted 2.44 ERA I'd consider selling high. Now Buehrle won't be a terrible option down the stretch, but his current 3.06 ERA is REALLY unsustainable and his K Rate has steadily dropped each month (.73 in April to .71 in May to.56 in June to .43 in July). It's a pretty steady trend at this point and one that screams Sell High to me, combine it with an unsustainable .79 Strand Rate and I think we're looking at Buehrle pitching closer to a 4.00+ ERA the rest of the way. If you can move him on his stellar 3.06 ERA right now and get value as one of the top 30 SP's in all of baseball, I'd trade him in a heartbeat. The K potential is dropping, the W potential isn't great pitching for the White Sox, and the peripherals suggest gloomier days are ahead for Buehrle's pretty ERA.
