Rodrigo Lopez improved to 4-0 on the year with a win over the Yankees on Thursday. He went 5.2 IP, allowing 7 hits and a walk while striking out 3. Rodrigo lowers his ERA to 2.93 on the year in seven starts. This guy leaves Leo Mazzone and Baltimore for Coors and he lops three full runs off of his ERA? Go figure. What is worse is that he has posted a 0.8 HR/9 rate after posting a 1.5 rate last year and 1.2 over his career. Rodrigo has upped his already good GB rate to 1.37 this year, the current plot point in a progression of 1.19, 1.21, and 1.37 since 2004. Lopez has also cut his walk rate from a career 2.1 to 1.5 this year although his K rate has dipped from a career rate of 6.0 to 4.9 as well. Rodrigo's .298 BHIP% is fairly normal, but his strand percentage is high vs. MLB average at 78.8%. That will correct itself a little, and presumably so will his outlying walk rate. That still leaves room for a pretty strong level of performance, except that he hasn't posted a statistically good season with very similar indicators otherwise. That makes it hard to imagine this is has all come together in a blinding light at Coors. His lower walk rate has helped, the move from the AL East has helped, but there's a 4.00+ ERA just waiting to get out here. Sell high ... Sell mile-high.
Man is Derek Lee hot. He was 3- for -4 last night with a pair of Rbi and that makes him 13- for his last -21 - .619 for those of you scoring at home. Surprisingly though, this streak has resulted in no homers and just 3 RBI. Overall his RBI production has been good (39) but he only has 6 HRs. His GB ratio is 1.20, his highest since 2002 (1.0 in 2006, 0.9 in 2005, 1.0 in 2004) and his HR/FB ratio is 8.5% as opposed to his career 18.1% and his 15.1% in 2006. You cannot help but think that the wrist injury plays a part in this. He is not that far off however, and it is conceivable that he still has a ways to go before he is 100%. There is nothing to indicate there will be a permanent hangover from this. His power should come around.
Ted Lilly struck out 10 hitters for the second time this season but he was roughed up a bit by the Rangers. Ted gave up 5 runs in 7 IP on 6 hits and a walk. Three of the 5 runs he allowed came on back-to-back HRs by Victor Diaz and Adam Melhuse in the second inning. Ted was not involved in the decision but his ERA swelled to 3.90 on the year. Ted has struggled of late with a 5.23 June ERA in 4 starts entering last night's game. He had given up 5 HRs in 20 IP in the month prior to facing the Rangers. Still his HR rate is below his norms at 1.1/9. He is giving up a tick more fly balls this year with the Cubs so far, but not enough to worry about. The fact is however that his "luck"stats, BHIP% and Strand % are very favorable right now at .273 and 68.5%, well below his career rates of .292 and 72.2%. There should be some correction there, making a sub-4.00 ERA difficult to maintain.
Chad Billingsley went 3.2 IP against the Jays in Toronto on Thursday allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2. "It felt good to be back out there again starting," said Billingsley. "The main thing was trying to pace myself. I didn't want to burn myself out after the first 25 pitches." The bottom line was not great but Grady Little seemed pleased with Chad's performance. He threw just 41 strikes in an inefficient 70 pitches and his GB/FB split was 2/7. I am less impressed. His stat line this year includes 24 relief appearances against this one start, but he has shown a strong 9.7 K rate and an improved 3.7 BB rate. His MLB career BB rate is 5.18 in parts of 2 seasons and his BB rate in AAA was 4.0. He throws some ground balls, normally (1.1), and keeps the ball in the park normally (0.6/9, although he gave up a HR Thursday), so Chad makes a decent risk as he takes over Jason Schmidt's rotation slot. If you have starting pitching issues you probably shot take a flier on Billingsley. He may be one of the better FA pitchers available this summer. The D-Backs are next in Tuesday.
It was a wrestling match on the mound for John Van Benschoten on Thursday. He needed 96 pitches to get 15 outs and only 57 of those pitches were strikes as the M's beat the Bucs. John allowed just 3 runs despite his struggles, on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 2. Ten of those pitches were to Ichiro in the 5th before John gave up an Rbi single to the Japanese star which broke his shutout. Jose Lopez followed with a two run double to complete the damage. John drops to 0-2 with a 4.22 ERA in two starts since being promoted. He has allowed 9 hits in 10.2 IP and 5 walks (1.31 WHIP) while striking out 6. He will not be a bad option in the context a rookie pitcher fronting a horribly bad offensive team, but he will be a rookie pitcher fronting a horribly bad offensive team. John may be able to provide some decent innings, in a 5th starter's context, but he is unlikely to be a big contributor in the win column going forward.
Today's Marlins starter Scott Olsen gave up 4 earned runs in 6 IP against the Royals on Sunday and still is 3-2 with a 2.08 ERA in interleague play as he meets Boof Bonser and the Twins. The trump stat here however is that he's given up 5 runs in three of his last 5 starts. He shut down the Tribe on 6/12 over 7 IP but around that he gave up 16 earned runs in 21 IP over 4 starts (6.85) on 24 hits and 13 walks (1.76). The Royals were a bit lucky against Olsen on Sunday and didn't exactly sting the ball but the stuff flying around him statistically doesn't fill me with confidence for this start at the moment.
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