Randy Wolf:
Wolf's going through a bit of a slump right now as he turned in his 3rd clunker in the last 4 starts. The drop off has come with a steep decline in his K Rate along with a slightly increasing BB Rate. Wolf hasn't thrown more than 80 innings since 2004 and is one of the main reasons I think Wolf has made himself a sell high candidate. With his K Rate dropping so quickly he could be hitting a bit of a dead arm period, but even that would concern me a bit with Wolf's injury history. Wolf's next outing will be against a free-swinging TB offense, so if he can rack up some K's and re-establish his value I'd consider selling high.
Rich Hill:
Hill was mercifully removed after 3 innings where he allowed 5 ER's on 3 HR's to the Padres. Earlier in the year Hill allowed 4 HR's to the Padres in 6 innings in spacious Petco Park. Those who didn't see yesterday's outing would've thought the wind was blowing out at Wrigley but that wasn't the case. In fact, the wind was blowing in heavily at Wrigley and the Padres had an additional 3-4 balls that would've left Wrigley on any other day against Hill. The Cubs removed Hill citing that they felt he may have been tipping his pitches. While the Cubs are likely correct, I think this is a Padres-specific issue for Hill and he won't see them again this season. After Hill's outing in SD, he allowed only 2 ER's in his next 21 innings, so I don't think this is a long-term issue. However the Padres who saw Hill a bit in spring training clearly have something figured out that's telling them what Hill is throwing, because this is two starts they've been on EVERYTHING he's thrown at them at any time in the count.
Mike Cameron:
Cameron loves facing Rich Hill as he hit 2 more HR's off of Hill on Sunday and now has 4 on the season off of Hill. As mentioned before, it's clear the Padres knew what was coming and Cameron jumped all over it yet again. Cameron's a guy that's going to start coming up a bit more frequently for mixed leaguers when they're scanning the waiver wire for some help, but I'm hear to tell you to look for other options. While Cameron possesses an intriguing power-speed combination, his EYE has regressed back to 2004-2005 levels and his power has been in decline over the last 3 years. On top of that while Cameron's recent hot streak has been impressive, he's been doing much of the damage against LH Pitching where he's hitting .333-.436-.576 this season. With the Padres only scheduled to face 3 LH's in the next 2 weeks and one of them Erik Bedard I'd imagine Cameron has a difficult time continuing this torrid pace. Ultimately Cameron's speed and power combo comes at a significant price for your team's batting average and I'd only invest in Cameron if I saw a string of lefties upcoming.
Matt Morris:
We've been warning you for weeks this was going to happen so if you're a Matt Morris owner and had him active against the Red Sox yesterday shame on you. The curtains were pulled on Morris' smoke and mirrors show on Sunday and Morris was revealed as the fraud that he is as a sub 3 ERA pitcher. In fact, he's a fraud even as a Sub 4 ERA pitcher, so I'm telling you right now more of this is coming. Coming into the start against the Red Stockings, Morris had a .81 Strand Rate, a BHIP% 40 points below his 3 year average, and a craptacular 1.55:1 K:BB Ratio. I promise you more of this is coming and in fact I'll tell you when it's coming! Next Saturday at home against the Yankees where I predict at least 5 ER's.
Roy Oswalt:
I alluded to Oswalt's slow and lengthy decline when writing about Carlos Zambrano a few weeks back so I figured I'd take this chance to elaborate on it a bit. Oswalt picked up his 7th win of the season on Sunday striking out 6 in 5 2/3 innings while also allowing 12 hits and while his recent stretch in June where he's struck out 24 in 24 1/3 innings may not be the best time to point these trends out, take a look at Oswalt's numbers over the last 6 years since he broke out in 2002. What you'll see is a steady decline in his K Rate down from 8.03 to 6.27 and this season the BB Rate has started to climb. I think Oswalt's career is going to mirror Tim Hudson's a little bit where he's still going to be an effective pitcher and someone you want on your staff but all of the sudden he's going to go from perennial Cy Young contender to mid 3's ERA and 150-170 K seasons. It's happening now but people aren't realizing it yet, if you're in a keeper league or Dynasty league and can move him for one of the up and coming starters I'd strongly consider it.
