My base of minor league operations sits on the banks of the meandering Merrimack River in Manchester New Hampshire. The New Hampshire Fisher Cats are the AA affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays, playing in the Eastern League. Their new ballpark, Merchant Auto Stadium, is nicely designed and executed. The game ops staff puts on a great game presentation every night with plenty for my kids to take in. Like any New England town with any size to it, Manchester has it's parking issues, but hey, you can't complain too much when you get to see all the young future studs for the price of an $8 seat. Most importantly, those seats are about 30 minutes drive from my door.
I was there last night with my sidekick, 8-year-old cub reporter Aiden Blasi to see the Red Sox top pitching prospect. The Portland Sea Dogs (AA-Boston) were in town and Clay Buchholz was scheduled to pitch. I have probably seen the Sea Dogs 10 times this year already and Jacoby Ellsbury has moved 90 minutes down I-95, to where the calamari roams free in Pawtucket, so my only reason for attending was to see Clay, who I had not managed to catch yet this year. The Fisher Cats had made sure to tout Clay's appearance on their mailing list last Friday, assuring a sell out, which they got.
Here is what I wrote about Clay in week #8's edition of Prospect Central:
Clay Buchholz - Red Sox
Starting Pitcher - Throws Right - 6-3, 190 - 8/14/1984
Jacoby Ellsbury gets most of the ink in the Red Sox farm system but perhaps the bigger impact prospect is Clay Buchholz. A supplemental first round pick for the Sox in 2005, Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro seasons.
Clay throws a low-90s fastball that can get to 95 or 96 when needed but his bread and butter is a terrific change. He also has a great vertical curve and a decent slider.
He has the stuff already, what he is working on in the minors is the craft of pitch selection and general pitching strategy. The Sox would like him to understand how you work a hitter the first time up in a game with an eye towards his second and third time up.
Over two levels of A-ball last year Clay fanned 140 in 119 IP while walking just 33 and allowing 88 hits (1.01 WHIP). One thing he has learned is that he can be extremely effective working in pitchers counts.
This year, just south of the B&M Baked Bean factory in Portland Maine Clay has held opponents to a .179 OBA over 39 IP. He's given up 25 hits and 7 walks (0.69) while striking out 53 (12.2/9). Oh and he has been better against lefties, holding them to a .151 OBA, .288 SLG%, and 0.61 WHIP.
Clay represents true Ace potential even though he's still a bit underrated in many circles. He will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next year I suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central
Last night he lived up to that evaluation, limiting the Fischer Cats to 1 run over 6.1 IP on 4 hits, a walk and 11 strikeouts. He tired a little in the 7th before being lifted, giving up two of those four hits to start the inning, which produced the only run that he allowed.
My first impression of him was physical. Listed at 6-3, 190 Clay sounds lean and he is. He looks physically sound, he does not look underdeveloped at all, but still, I would like to see more development of his hips and upper legs. I was left thinking that if he could get up over 200 and gain most of that developing his lower body he may have another mph or two left to gain.
Clay cruised at 94 (on the stadium gun) quite easily in the first 4 innings, dropping a mph here and there in the 5th and part of the 6th. At the end, even as he tired, he stayed at 93, and was beating hitters with it. He also reached back for a couple of 95s after the 5th when the situation called for it.
He was liberal with his offspeed stuff, especially early in the count and was effective getting ahead with it. His curve was deep and vertical. He seemed to be able to range it between 80 and 85. His slider was a little hotter at 86-88 and he had a nice downward plane on it. Clay's change up was very good sometimes pulling the chute to 77 mph, a very nice 16-20mph differential from his fastball. His arm action was excellent on the change most of last night but he was telegraphing his curve a little bit. Clay's command was excellent, I had him hitting the catching target about 75% overall with his fastball and change, a bit lower with his slider. His curve was a little less accurate especially late but he was getting first pitch strikes with it.
Clay's velocity and command did not suffer from the set position. His mechanics from both the windup and the set were fluid and seemed consistent, even as he tired, save for that slight drop off in arm speed that he showed on the curve. This year he has actually been a bit better with men on base, allowing a .182 OBA as opposed to .188 with no one on. He has held opponents to a .135 OBA with RISP.
The Sox are interested in his game management skills and he was very good last night. He wasn't trying to blow through hitters but he wasn't nibbling either. He got ahead in counts, mostly with breaking stuff, in fact his offspeed pitches seemed to be front and center last night, almost as if he was assigned to lead with them and limited in his use of his fastball. That is total speculation on my part but Clay seemed to be highlighting his ability to work hitters with off speed pitches. One area Buchholz had problems ... and if this is all you have to complain about, it's a good night ... is that he was too hittable on 0-2, giving up better opportunities to hit the ball in that count than he probably should.
Stamina could a bit of an issue, and that could revert to his need to develop his legs more. Clay has "struggled"early allowing a .250 OBA in the first inning this year, fairly typical of most power pitchers. After that, it has been a sub-.160 OBA most of the way until the 7th where his OBA jumps back up to .250. He has completed 7 IP just once this year but it is hard to tell how much of that is the Red Sox limiting his IP. I did see him run out of gas a bit in the 7th in last night's outing.
Clay improved to 6-2 on the year as the Sea Dogs won 5-4 after a late rally by the Fisher Cats. His ERA fell to a league leading 1.79. Clay is up to 111 K on the year, the most in Minor League Baseball this morning. The 22-year-old has struck out 11 hitters three times this year, and 12 in a fourth game. Three of those 11 K or more starts have come in his last 5 outings.
Despite a major jump in level this year, Clay has elevated his peripheral stats from his A season last year. Entering last night he allowed an OBA of .181 (.212 in A last year), fanned 12.2/9 (10.2), walked just 2.2/9 (2.5) and given up 0.5 HR/9 (0.9).
Clay has been selected to play in the 2007 Futures Game and the Red Sox sandwich pick in 2005, the 42nd player taken overall, seems to straining at the leash developmentally. I am guessing the only reason he is not in AAA now is that the Red Sox feel no urge to rush the young man. The Red Sox as an organization however feel they will not bring a player to the majors unless they see him face some adversity and gauge how he handles it. Clay is probably not going to be challenged too much in AA, so their hand may be forced.
As telling as anything last night, the nearly 7,000 in attendance gave the visiting Buchholz a prolonged standing ovation as he left the mound, no doubt with visions of him in Fenway dancing in their heads. As I speculated in week #8 it seems certain that Clay's days of being underrated as a prospect are near an end.
