Shaking the Trade Tree
In the first part of our series, we talked about how one critical aspect of the trading game is being aware that every player has more than one absolute value. He has, in fact, a different value to every owner in the league, his perceived value. He also has a value to you, and he has an actually value as well.
We also talked about understanding the big picture and having a handle on how changes in player's roles and performances can affect their value to their owners, and how injuries and overall fantasy team performance can restructure what an owner feels he needs and how much he is willing to give to get it.
Learning how to identify those values, gauge those changes, and take advantage of the separations between all three values, is the core skill needed to assure that in the end, you trade effectively.
That skill is analytical.
What we will talk about this week, are the interpersonal skills that are the other side of the trading tongs, if you will.
You can sit back and analyze your opponent's rosters. You can imagine what they need, and you can decide what they want. But your opinion doesn't count. You need to know what the other owners think about their roster. The best way to do that is to talk to them.
Keep in contact with the other owners in your league, by phone or by e-mail. A simple "How's your team doing?" will often get you all the information you need to understand what an owner wants, and what he's willing to give, at least in concept.
Owners love to complain about their team and a simple conversational opener like "How do you like your team so far?"is the fantasy baseball equivalent of a Rorschach test. More often than not, an owner's inner feelings about what he needs will tumble out. All you have to do is listen.
Stay in touch with your fellow owners, even on the most basic level, and you will find opportunities that are just waiting to be taken advantage of. Sometimes however you need to create your own market, or sometimes you simply want "shake the trade tree" and see what falls out.
There are a couple ways to do this. One is what I call the "Classified Ad". List all of the players you would think about trading and e-mail it to every owner. I like to include the player's stats if they help my case, and often I will mention a playing time situation or some other pertinent info that may make the player more appealing.
Do not do sell jobs in these notes. Any comments you make should be brief, factual and informative. Give other owners a factual reason or two why they could be interested in each guy and/or explain why a player's value may have recently increased.
Do not sell your players in the initial shopping notes. That is usually a turn off, and it is usually counter productive. Save the sell job for overcoming objections, comparing your offer favorably to a rival offer, or to get a close deal over the hump.
You should also include an idea of what you are looking for in your classified ad, because at a minimum it is a second way to entice an owner into responding. An owner may have some excess in the areas you identify as needs. Don't be too specific. If you narrow down the scope of the players you are potentially interested in, then you will narrow down the owners who think they might have the beginnings of a conversation with you.
I always include one or two players on my shopping list who have definite trade value, players that almost anyone would be interested in trading for, even though I'm probably not going to deal them unless someone knocks me over with an offer. The idea is to get as much response as possible because more often than not, a response leads to a dialog, and a dialog can lead to a negotiation. Trading, like selling itself, is a numbers game. The more people you have interested and involved in discussions, the better you will do.
The classified ad, at worst, will flush out all the owners who are looking to make a deal. Some may be shopping for what you are selling, and if you really get lucky, you stumble on to someone who's thinking about moving a stud.
The Classified Ad is a fishing expedition however, and it can be too vague to draw out the more timid or lazy owners. Often, specific trade ideas tailored for an individual owner can be the conversation starter you need, but the trick is in the approach.
For this, I will trot out the "you can lead a horse to water" proverb. You want take the reigns of your trading partner and walk him up to the deal. You don't want to try to push him there, and sometimes you may even get on for a ride and let him take you there.
Try to build a framework of a deal with your initial approach. If you are interested in a player of his, you might start with "If you were thinking about trading Alex Rios, what would you need to get back in a deal to make a deal make sense for you?" This will be familiar advice to some of you but you should never ask a question that can be answered with a "no", i.e. "Would you trade Alex Rios?"Once your opponent answers "No"that is the end of discussion. There is nowhere to go from there.
Give the owner a chance to tell you what it would take to make it happen, no matter how unreasonable his answer may seem to you. If you ask the former question, even if the guy says "Ya, I'd need to get Albert Pujols, and Johan Santana from you"you have started a discussion, and you may even know your potential trading partner needs a starting pitcher or a big bat. You aren't too far down the line towards a trade, but you are a lot closer than you are with an answer of "No". Even a ridiculous response gives you more insight into what he feels he needs, and what on your roster interests him. Any intelligence is good intelligence.
If you don't have a target on another owner's team (or even if you do), but you feel you have surplus in areas he has needs, open with "I'm trying to move Kelvim Escobar. I'm pretty stacked in the rotation and I thought you might be looking for help there. Who would you be willing to talk about on your roster?"
This approach keeps the other owner from getting claustrophobic, and it keeps your vistas open as well. Sometimes a player will pop up in conversation that you never thought would be available, or sometimes the price for that player on his roster you are targeting is a lot less than what you would have offered in the end.
If you ask if he would trade Player X for Kelvim Escobar, you've limited the discussion out of the gate, and if that matchup doesn't strike him as doable you are going to have a hard time converting the conversation to another target.
If you ask him what he would be willing to trade for Escobar, you might just find Player X on that list (you are riding that horse to water at this point), and even if he's not, you still have the option of bringing him up that player if nothing else he's talking about appeals to you.
One skill that is often undervalued in life, let alone trading in fantasy baseball, is the ability to listen. When you approach another owner, listen to the answers you get. If the basis for a deal exists, if you match up well with the other owner, then construct an offer that fits the framework of the deal that he laid out. To get a deal done, you need appeal to his perceived wants and needs. You need to respond to what he thinks he needs, not what you think he needs, or even what he actually needs. All that matters is what he thinks. To find out what he thinks, all you need to do is listen.
That doesn't mean give him everything he wants, but you have to address at least some of his desires to get a deal done. It is a simple principle, but I know from the trade offers I get that many owners don't seem to understand it. If you aren't offering anything the other guy needs or wants, your odds of success plummet.
If you can fill his needs, then you can make him want to do the deal, make him want to get the package you are offering. The more you can do that, the closer you are to closing the deal.
If both owners want the trade to happen, more often than not, the details get worked out.
Those details are the subject of the next part in this series, coming up next Tuesday.
