Outfielder – Bats Right – 6-4, 210 – 4/13/1983
The Astros finally figured out that Chris Burke was a problem. It just took them a bit longer than the rest of us. That brings up to Hunter Pence who was called up from AAA Round Rock late last week.
Hunter was the Astros top pick in the 2004 draft but they didn’t have a pick until the second round and the 64th pick overall. Pence will not be starring in any baseball instructional video in the near future. His stance and swing is unorthodox to put it politely. He is a big guy but he does choke up on the bat although that doesn’t seem to rob him of any power.
After an injury-curtailed 2005, Hunter hit .283 in AAA Corpus Christi in 2006 with 28 HRs, 95 Rbi and 31 doubles in 523 ABs. He slugged .533 and posted a .880 OPS while fanning 109 times (20.8%) and drawing 60 walks (10.3%). In 85 AAA ABs at Round Rock, Hunter cut his K rate to 16.5% and lost a little ground in his BB rate (8.6%) but he raised his SLG% to .588 on 3 HRs, and 10 doubles as part of his .341 AVG.
Hunter has a strong grasp of the strike zone, keeps his hands inside the ball and drives the ball to all fields. When he is on, he is hitting more line drives than anything else.
Pence is not textbook by any one’s standards and he is going to have to conform a bit with his open stance and awkward swing so that he can take full advantage of his outstanding bat speed and natural power.
Pence also steals some bases although he’s not the fastest runner. He put some work into the skill between 2005 and 2006 and stole 17, upping his SB% to 81% after going 12- for -22 in 2005 (55%). He may bring some of his speed game to the majors initially but that does not figure to be a long-term part of his game.
Pence can play CF for now, especially in comparison to Chris Burke but his arm is limited and eventually he will have to move to left field. It won’t matter though because Pence is likely a developing middle-of-the-order hitter who will hit for power and steal a few bases. He is the antithesis of the Red Sox J.D. Drew who is a walking technique clinic, but Pence may end up a similar producer (albeit with a click more power), annually contributing mid-20s in HRs with a .280 average and 80+ or so Rbi
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+
Seas Lvl AB AVG OBP SLG OPS XBH HR BB SO SB
2006 AA 523 .283 .357 .533 .890 67 28 60 109 17
2007 AAA 85 .341 .398 .588 .986 14 3 8 14 2
2007 MLB 23 .261 .320 .391 .711 2 0 1 5 0
Ryan Braun – Brewers
Third base – Bats Right – 6-2, 200 – 11/17/1983
It is hard to understand what the Brewers are waiting for. Ryan Braun was the 5th overall pick in the 2005 draft, taken out of Miami and all he has done since that day is rake.
The 23-year-old hit 10 homers and collected 31 XBH in just 193 ABs between Rookie Ball and A ball in 2005. Last year between high-A and AA Ryan had 22 HRs and 56 XBH in 557 ABs while exhibiting a good walk rate (8.3%) in AA, and improving his K rate from 24% to 20% in the jump from A+ to AA
This year in AAA his numbers have gone nuts … Coming off a 6- for -8 doubleheader on Wednesday with a HR, Braun boasts walk rate hovering around 10.5%, a K rate under 10%, a .700+ SLG% and a 1.000+ OPS. Those stats say that there’s very little left for Ryan to prove in the minors.
Ryan has exceptional bat speed along with plus power and solid contact skills. His command of the strike zone has held though every level jump and the jump to the majors should not be an exception. His zone command should allow him to avoid prolonged slumps early on, and keep his head above water as he adjusts to big league pitching. Ryan is also willing to hit a pitch where it is thrown, working the entire field, which is another skill that will help him as he finds his sea legs.
Ryan conservatively projects as a .280/23/80 type of hitter and there is some ceiling in those numbers. He is probably headed to the outfield eventually but it is possible he has just enough defensive chops to stick at third base for the Brewers. He is of course more valuable from a fantasy standpoint if he can stick at third and that stick seems possible.
Right now, the only thing in his way at the MLB level is a combo of Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino. Now that J.J.Hardy and Rickie Weeks are establishing their every day credentials, this is the only work still available for these two. They can’t hold Brian off much longer however. Even if things are going well right now for the Brewers, the knocking is just too loud.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl AB AVG OBP SLG OPS XBH HR BB SO SB
2006 A+ 226 .274 .341 .438 .779 21 7 23 54 14
2006 AA 231 .303 .361 .589 .950 35 15 21 46 12
2007 AAA 93 .366 .433 .731 1.164 18 8 11 9 3
Yovani Gallardo – Brewers
Starting Pitcher - Throws Right - 6-2, 190 – 2/27/1986
As good a prospect as Ryan Braun is, he is probably not the Brewers’ best prospect. That title would arguably fall to 21-year-old right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
The Brewers second pick in 2004, Gallardo hosted his own coming out party in 2006 when he struck out 188 batters in 155 IP between high-A and AA, leading the minors. He only issued 51 walks against the total and while both rates lowered when he jumped to AA he made gains as the summer wore on with a 10.4 K rate in August against a 2.9 BB rate and a 0.87 WHIP.
Overall at AA his dominance was evident in his .187 OBA with a .232 OSLG% and .498 OOPS. And that with a pretty normal .267 BAHIP.
So far this year at AAA, incredibly, Yovani has upped or leveled almost all of those peripherals. It is almost scary when you take into account his level jump with only 77.1 AA IP under his belt.
Yovani leads with a low-to-mid 90s fastball with life. He throws a plus curve and developing slider. He also has a Pedro-esque change that dives aggressively. Gallardo is a heady pitcher who will give hitters a couple of different looks, speeds and release points on those pitches but his mechanics are clean, simple, and repeatable.
Gallardo is just over the Brewers horizon and he should play a role in 2007, which will probably be his last year in the minors. He has Ace capabilities and you can reasonably say that is the expectation for this young gun.
Long Term Fantasy Grade A+
Seas Lvl W L ERA G IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 A+ 6 3 2.09 13 77.2 11.9 2.7 0.5 .198 0.99
2006 AA 5 2 1.63 13 77.1 9.9 3.3 0.2 .187 1.01
2007 AAA 3 1 2.70 5 30.0 12.6 2.4 0.3 .191 0.93
