Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-1, 175 – 3/9/1985
The 22-year-old right-hander was strong in his MLB debut against the Orioles on May 15th, holding them to 1 earned run on 4 hits and 3 walks over 8.2 IP. The rub was that he fanned just one in that outing. But here’s the thing … He got 21 ground ball outs.
And there lies the beauty of Jesse Litsch who was a 24th round draft pick in 2004 as a draft-and-follow out of South Florida Community College. Jesse mixes a low-90s fastball with a curveball, slider, change and two seamer.
He is just coming into his own in terms of how all of those pieces fit and after a so-so 2006 tour in AA on the Banks of the Merrimack in Manchester N.H., Jesse went 5-1 with an 0.96 ERA with the Fischer Cats before his call up this year.
Last year he stuck to his fastball and cowered away from his offspeed stuff but he has now learned the joys of pitching to contact that only a groundball pitcher can know.
He struck a fair amount of hitters in Manchester, 28 in 37.2 IP (6.7/9) against just 7 walks. He fanned 7.0/9 in 2006 (54 in 69.1 IP) while walking 13. But last year he gave up 85 hits (1.41 WHIP) and this year he’s given up just 22 hits (0.92). That was a direct result of him learning that he can be effective throwing something other than his 4-seem. The Jays also love his mental makeup and his desire to learn and improve.
A pitcher who is capable of fanning 5 or 6 a game who can also throw 10+ groundball outs a game is intriguing. Think Derek Lowe. We simply down know enough yet to determine if Jesse can do either consistently on the MLB level, but it’s his ability to throw GBOs is what makes him interesting beyond his stat line.
He has earned a couple more turns as the Blue Jays try and fill their battle-scarred rotation. It is probably too early to “draft” him for your team especially as he plies his trade in the AL East, but we will follow him for a few starts to see can compete. Jesse will start today against the Phillies
Long Term Fantasy Grade – C+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 A+ 6 6 3.53 89.1 8.1 0.8 0.5 .272 1.14
2006 AA 3 4 5.06 69.1 7.0 1.6 0.7 .303 1.41
2007 AA 5 1 0.96 37.2 6.6 1.6 0.4 .172 0.77
2007 MLB 1 0 1.04 8.2 1.0 3.1 0.0 .141 0.81
Clay Buchholz – Red Sox
Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-3, 190 – 8/14/1984
Jacoby Ellsbury gets most of the ink in the Red Sox farm system but perhaps the bigger impact prospect is Clay Buchholz. A supplemental first round pick for the Sox in 2005, Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro seasons.
Clay throws a low-90s fastball that can get to 95 or 96 when needed but his bread and butter is a terrific change. He also has a great vertical curve and a decent slider.
He has the stuff already, what he is working on in the minors is the craft of pitch selection and general pitching strategy. The Sox would like him to understand how you work a hitter the first time up in a game with an eye towards his second and third time up.
Over two levels of A-ball last year Clay fanned 140 in 119 IP while walking just 33 and allowing 88 hits (1.01 WHIP). One thing he has learned is that he can be extremely effective working in pitchers counts.
This year, just south of the B&M Baked Bean factory in Portland Maine Clay has held opponents to a .179 OBA over 39 IP. He’s given up 25 hits and 7 walks (0.69) while striking out 53 (12.2/9). Oh and he has been better against lefties, holding them to a .151 OBA, .288 SLG%, and 0.61 WHIP.
Clay represents true Ace potential even though he’s still a bit underrated in many circles. He will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next year I suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central
Long Term Fantasy Grade – A
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 A 9 4 2.62 103.0 10.2 2.5 0.9 .212 1.04
2006 A+ 2 0 1.13 16.0 12.9 2.3 0.0 .181 0.88
2007 AA 1 1 1.82 39.2 12.0 1.6 0.7 .183 0.81
Chuck Lofgren – Indians
Starting Pitcher – Throws Left – 6-4, 200 – 1/29/1985
Few things excite MLB organizations more than tall LHP who can bring it. Chuck Lofgren throws comfortably in the low-90s but can crank his fastball up to 95 on occasion. However, he gets an extra foot out of his fastball with his outstanding changeup. To those offerings, he adds a good curve and a relatively new slider.
He is coming quickly both in terms of level and development. Last year in A+ he had some issues with his mechanics that lead to less-than-reliable command. He walked 54 in 140 IP and he didn’t need to nibble. He simply could not repeat his delivery consistently enough.
Opponents hit just .217 off of him and he struck out 125 giving us an idea of his capabilities. This year in AA he hasn’t made much progress in his walk rate but he has upped his K rate to 9.3 over 40.2 IP and lowered his OBA to .196 due mostly to a a drop in BHIP% to .263 from his .277 in 2005.
Chuck is very effective against right handed hitting (.182 OBA this year, .293 SLG%) due to that terrific change up. He is also competitively aggressive and will work inside to right-handed hitters.
He needs to fully install that new slider this year, and he needs to learn how to work to hitters that he isn’t dominating. There has already been some progress there. In April this year, he fanned 12.1/9 at a new level while opponents hit .244 off of him. This month the K rate has dropped 7.0/9 but he’s been a better pitcher, halving his May BB rate and posting a .138 OBA. He is learning how to pitch.
To me Chuck projects, if all goes well, as a solid #2 starter. I don’t think he can dominate at the MLB level which is why it is so important for him to be a smart pitcher. He has the stuff to be effective if he can polish his mechanics to the point where he can locate at least three of his pitches consistently.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 A+ 17 5 2.32 139.2 8.1 3.5 0.3 .215 1.16
2007 AA 3 2 2.88 40.2 9.3 3.3 0.4 .196 1.06
