Adam Dunn loves to hit 'em in bunches. He hit another HR last night for his 3rd in three games and his 8th of the season. Dunn's power in 2007 is consistent with his previous two years at a rate of about 1 HR for every 12.0 AB. It might be slightly better than previous years, but its about the same. The important factors to look at for Dunn's true value is his improvement in FPI, driven by more SB and an overall better average. He's hitting .271 so far this season, compared to sub-.250 seasons for the last two years. He also is running a lot more than previous years. He already has 6 SB while swiping a total of 7 in 2006. His career-high is 19 back in 2002 and at this rate, could flirt with that figure by the end of September. Those 20-points in average, improved speed, and slight improvement in power yields an FPI of 0.84, almost .20 greater than his full-season last year.
Jeff Francis dropped his fourth straight decision last night with a 7.0 IP, 4 ER performance against the Giants. His two quality starts on the season came in his first two starts against the D-Backs and the Dodgers. Since then, he is 0-4 with no quality starts, 7.99 ERA, and 2.11 WHIP. The long-ball is killing him, with a HR/9 of 1.90 combined with a H/9 of 15.2 in those four outings. Francis has been better than this in previous seasons, averaging a QS % of a little less than 50%. While his outing last night wasn't considered "quality,"he still looked better than he has in previous starts and should be a decent option next week against the struggling Cardinals.
With the Braves catchers banged up (Brayan Pena - 15-day concussion, Brian McCann day-to-day with an injured finger), Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been called up from Double-A Mississippi. He's one of the bright young catching prospects in the minors, hitting .309 with 6 HR in Double-A this season. Looking deeper at his stats, the young catcher has an FPI of 0.88, OPS over 1.000, HR/AB of 13.5, and a solid BB/K of 0.8. If you have McCann and you play in deep leagues, Saltalamacchia will definitely get the start. Might be worth it to get him in your lineup. I wouldn't go crazy grabbing him unless you're in a keeper or NL-only league.
Its amazing what a 5-hour drive north on I-55 has done for Jason Marquis. With another fine performance on Wednesday, he improves to 4-1 on the season and drops his ERA to 2.10 and WHIP to 1.03. He's 5-for-6 in quality starts and the one non-QS was a 5.0 IP/3 ER start. Marquis has definitely put together a solid start to the season, but you have to assume he'll revert back to his old self at some point in the near future. His WHIP has only been under 1.40 and once in the last 5 years. If you can sell him high, I would do it.
Kyle Lohse was dealt the loss on Wednesday, but still pitched well enough to earn a QS with a 6.0 IP / 3 ER performance. Make that 3 quality starts in his last four outings. One good sign for Lohse that looks like he could sustain his 3.12 ERA / 1.29 WHIP is his BB/K ratio of 4.3. That breaks down to a K/9 of 6.7 and a BB/9 of 1.6. I'm a little nervous that Lohse's career BAA is .285. He's a short-term solution, but when we analyze his full-season, I won't be surprised to see his ERA up in the 4.00+ and WHIP in the 1.40+ ranges.
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