Carlos Delgado:
It's one thing to preach patience in April, but as we creep towards the end of May and into June slow starts sometimes can begin to dictate trends and that might be the case with Carlos Delgado. Delgado went 1-4 on Thursday night and while the month of May has shown an improvement over April (.253 vs. 188), the power for Carlos Delgado still hasn't come around. Delgado only has 3 HR's on the season and only 8 2B's to go with it in 171 AB's a miniscule rate of 6.4%. As a comparison Delgado last year in a down year for batting average still posted a 13.3% Extra Base Hit Rate and for his career posted a 13.6% Rate. This can all change with one long hot streak and after posting his 8th 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season in the last 9 years it's hard to imagine Delgado has fallen off the map so quickly. However Delgado is coming off of off-season wrist surgery which may have slowed his bat a bit and zapped some of his power. In this case the slow start may be a bit prolonged but Delgado should eventually return to the power numbers he's posted in previous years, albeit the slow start will restrict his season totals.
Adam Dunn
I keep hearing in some fantasy circles that Adam Dunn's increased batting average help this season is improving his overall value and making him more serviceable for fantasy owners and I'm not sure where this idea is coming from. Dunn went 1-4 on Thursday night belting out his 12th HR of the season and his average now sits at .257. Now .257 isn't anything to write home about when talking about a player, but for Dunn who hit .234, .247, and .215 in 3 of the last 4 years I understand how it could be exciting. However the batting average isn't being supported by actual improvements. Dunn's striking out at a higher clip than his has ever before and is simply benefiting from an improved BHIP% of .275 that's about 65 points above his 3 year average. When the BHIP% regresses we're back to the usual .230-.245 hitter we've seen the last few years. The other added value Dunn was providing early in the season was speed, having stolen 7 bases on the year (career high of 19 in 2002, followed by next high of 8), but Dunn has only 1 SB in his last 20 games and has essentially stopped running. I'm perceiving that Dunn has a bit more value than he may actually be worth right now and while his 40 HR's are nice to have, his batting average single-handedly eliminates you from competition in that category. If I could sell Dunn on his 12 HR's and 7 SB's to this point in the season along with his improved average for a more complete player, I'd entertain offers immediately.
Aaron Rowand:
We've made mention a couple times of Aaron Rowand's hot start and the prevailing theme was if he could maintain his improved BB Rate, he'd offer significant value. We talked about the unusually high BHIP% which was propping up his high batting average and this continues to be the case with a BHIP% of .307 and a batting average of .328, but the rest of the improvements are very much for real. Rowand's BB Rate has nearly doubled while reducing his K Rate. As a result everything else has jumped including his HR Rate and his OPS and all the improvements are very much real. Rowand's going to put together a very quiet .290-25-90-90-15 season and be one of the more underappreciated OF's in all of fantasy baseball. If you have an owner in your league thinking he's selling high on Rowand gladly take him up on it.
Ryan Braun:
Some big news out of Milwaukee for those owners in keeper formats as the Brewers announced on Thursday their intentions to call up top prospect Ryan Braun. Braun's a monster offensively and the main reason he had been held out of Milwaukee's major league roster was because of his defense. Braun had done everything he needed to do at the minor league level slugging above .500 at every level coming into this season and following it up with a .342-.418-.701 line at AAA to start this season in 117 AB's. Braun also showed the ability to control the strike zone at AAA posting 15 BB's and 11 K's for an EYE of 1.36. He's one of the more advanced 3B prospects in the game and while I always preface my comments on prospects by saying that we can't know what to expect immediately (look at Alex Gordon), Braun is one of the prospects I have more faith in.
Jason Bay:
Bay went 0-3 with 2 more K's on Thursday against a Cardinals staff that only struck out 3 the entire game. It may not seem like it from a far but Bay's .277 average in May has actually been an ugly prolonged slump. Bay's now struck out 28 times in 83 AB's for a 33.7% rate, which is way over his career rates. Despite the alarming slump and huge K numbers for Bay in May, he still remains on pace for his usual 150-160 K's, however his EYE continues to deteriorate primarily as a result of a lower BB Rate. The other concern for Bay owners comes from an overall lack of power that's come early in the season as his HR Rate and Slugging % are down from previous norms. For the most part the under-performance right now is being magnified by an atrocious month of May, but looking at Bay's career numbers there is something to be said for possibly lowering your expectations with Bay. Including the early portion of the 2007 season, Bay has seen a decline in his Extra Base Hit % over the last 3 seasons as well as an increase in his K Rate. When charting out his performance it becomes clear that the 2005 season may have been his career year from a skills perspective. Bay's still just 28 years old, so predicting a precipitous decline would be a bit irresponsible. While Bay is unlikely to surpass his 2005 or 2006 numbers he's still a good option for a .290+ batting average, 27-32 HR's, 100 RBI's and 5-10 SB's. Bay appears to be a solid buy-low candidate for the time being, but for the immediate future he looks to be mired in a bad slump that could linger for the rest of the week.
