Roger Clemens is probably long-gone in just about every fantasy league at this point. With his official announcement to join the Yankees yesterday, he becomes a valuable fantasy pitcher down the stretch for many fantasy owners. But just how valuable? Well, the Rocket has yet to announce an official comeback date, but my guess he'll be with the Yanks sometime early June. The series against the Red Sox at Fenway June 1st - 3rd, perhaps? The third game of that series is a Sunday night game, so if Roger wants more press, the ESPN game of the week against the Sox is a good start. I think Joe Torre avoids that situation, so expect his first start against the White Sox on 6/4 (also an ESPN game). From a stats perspective, Clemens was 7-6 with a 2.31 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 113.1 IP for the Astros last season. With a move to the AL EAST, expect these numbers to jump to the 4.00, 1.25 range. He'll be good for 5-6 innings per start and you definitely won't see his pitch count exceed the 100-pitch mark by much. While he definitely has fantasy value for the next four months, he won't be as dominant as he was in his previous comebacks with the 'Stros.
Come on Tex... keep it up. Over the last 5 games, Mark Teixeira has 2 HR, 9 hits, and 5 RBI. His last three games have all been multi-hit games and he is finally showing signs of breaking out of this month-long slump. Two out of his next three games at Yankee Stadium will be against lefties. That'll make Teixeira swing from the right-side. In 2006, he posted a HR/AB of just 21.9 against lefties compared to 14.1 against righties. Being a right-handed hitter in Yankee stadium doesn't help that average either, as The Stadium tends to favor lefties with the short-porch in right field.
Tough to break-down AJ Burnett's fantasy performance. On the one hand, he struck out 9 Rangers in 7.2 IP. It was good enough for a quality start, giving up 3 ER in the outing while walking just 1 batter. The bad? All 3 ER came from the long ball - 3 solo HR. That gives him 8 HR allowed this season for a high HR/9 of 1.8. Kind of bizarre for Burnett who tends to get his outs on the ground. A look at his GB/FB per game this season shows he generally has gotten more groundball outs than flyball outs at a rate of 1.66 (63 on the ground versus 38 in the air). I've seen Burnett float around the free agent wires in some mixed leagues over the last week. Don't be too quick to pull the plug on Burnett. A solid K/BB of 1.6 and a K/9 of 7.8 is too valuable to just drop to the free agent wire.
Jack Cust hit a dinger yesterday and should see more AB as the DH for the A's. He's been an up-and-comer for years and never has reached his full potential. He definitely has the power potential, hitting 30 HR last year in Triple-A with an OPS of 1.016. Before being called up to the big leagues (and being traded from the Padres), Cust had 8 HR's in 78 AB's for Triple-A Portland. Not sure what the A's long-term plan is for Cust, but if he knocks a few more out this week, it could get interesting. He's owned in less than 5% of all leagues, but if he hits another HR or two in the series against Kansas City, watch the free agent wire light up with the Jack Cust bandwagon fantasy players.
It looks like Bobby Abreu is finally breaking out of his slump, but its been a slow turn-around. With a multi-hit 2-for-5 on Sunday, he now has a modest 4-game hitting streak and has raised his average to .258. His 2007 has been just 0.58 with a lack of power and a un-Abreu-like .340 OBP. We had him at a forecasted 0.83 FPI and I still think he plays up to that level over the next 4.5 months. He'll continue to see great pitches to hit with A-Rod behind him and will have plenty of RBI opportunities with Jeter in front of him. Patience is key with Abreu. He has certainly showed positive signs over the past week.
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