Corey Patterson: When Patterson swiped 45 bases in 2006, he ran roughly half the time that he was on first base. In 33 games this year, he has only attempted 8 steals. Fantasy owners of Patterson cannot be happy with the lack of running because his value is mostly derived from his speed. On the positive side, he has shown improvement in his batting eye, 2005/2006/2007 eye ratios of .22/.22/.67, and contact rate, 2005/2006/2007, Ct%'s of 74%/80%/86%. If he can hold some of those gains throughout the season, his .250 batting, depressed by a .205 BHIP%, should rebound and being on base more should lead to a sharp increase in steals. He makes a very good buy low candidate.
Julio Lugo: With 10 steals in 10 attempts; Lugo has put to rest the notion that the Red Sox eschew the stolen base. Lugo's .227 average has been a disappointment, but he is making solid contact, 88% Ct% and exercising good plate patience, .88 batting eye. Once his .194 BHIP% corrects he should see a significant bump up in his average.
Jeremy Accardo: Jason Frasor has blown 2 of 4 save chances and has allowed 7 ER in his last 5 appearances covering 4 innings. Manager John Gibbons has refused to commit to Frasor as the closer. Accardo would seem to be the next in line for saves. His skill set has shown improvement from last year and the numbers suggest that he could handle the closer role, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 51% GB%. Considering that BJ Ryan is done for the year, being proactive and picking up Accardo could pay dividends down the road.
BJ Upton: For those in non-keeper leagues, this is the perfect time to sell high on Upton. On the surface his numbers look great, 7/23/.358 with 5 stolen bases. Upton's power had regressed the previous few seasons and while it is expected for a 22 year-old to show power growth as his body matures, this seems to be over his head, 7 home runs and 9 doubles in 109 AB. With a 65% contact rate, .24 batting eye, and a .407 BHIP% there will be some serious batting average erosion coming soon. His value may never be higher this season.
CC Sabathia: With a 10.1 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9, Sabathia has one of the better skill set of all major league pitchers. His 3.45 ERA could be even better with a little luck, .347 BHIP%. It is doubtful that he can keep up a command ratio of 5.9, but coming into this year, it had been in a three-year uptrend, 1.9/2.6/3.9.
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