Welcome
to Prospect Central
for Week #3. Today we will look at some players doing it …
or not doing it … or
sort of doing it, on the MLB level. Today it is a mixed bag of top
prospects,
and/or guys who you have heard a lot about, and/or guys you have been
hearing
about for a while, and/or guys you may not have known existed last
week. Oh and we
even wish a Prospect Central Happy
Birthday to a prospect today!
Travis Buck -
Outfielder
- Bats Left -
11/18/1983
This
Prior
to his original injury
last July, which ended his minor league season, Travis was hitting .302
at
Midland with 27 XBH in 212 AA ABs. That is an incredible XBH rate but
the
problem was that only 4 of those XBH were homeruns. He had 23 XBH in
Hi-A in
126 ABs last year before moving up to
Once
you add in his 57 Ks
and 48 BBs over those 338 2006 ML ABs, you can clearly see a contact
machine
with great plate command. That command comes from his incredibly quick
hands
that allow Travis take an extra look without fearing fastballs. Travis
will hit
the ball where it is pitched and doesn’t fear
pitcher’s counts. He is confident
with those great hands, and the strike zone, and in that regard he may
very
well be ready for the opportunity with the big club that Dan
Johnson’s injury
has afford him.
The
problem is that his arm will
not allow him to play RF and he doesn’t have the speed for
CF. That leaves him
as a left fielder and so far the corner-outfielder power that scouts
project
for him is late to the party. Travis
has
hit just 29 homers total in three college seasons and 497 pro ABs. To
this
point, at the major league level, he has not lifted the ball at all and
it’s
not unreasonable to wonder when he’s going to start turning
some of those
doubles into homers.
The
23-year-old was
projected to make the majors some time this summer so even if he is
here
because Johnson is hurt he could very well stick. Travis is a
prototypical
Billy Beane player but from a fantasy standpoint he will need to
develop that
latent HR stroke so that he can settle into an Rbi position in the
batting
order and be productive across a couple of scoring columns. If those
homers
don’t come he’ll end up being a luke-warm fantasy
property.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade –
B-
Year
2005
A 123
.427 .472
.341
1
22 14 3 19 19
2005
A 36
.439 .556
.361
2 9
3 1 5
8
2006
AA 212 .376 .472
.302
4
22 27 9 22 39
2006 A 126 .400 .603 .349 3 26 23 2 14 18
John Danks -
Starting
Pitcher – Throws
Left – 4/15/1985
Take last year for example. He finished making 13 starts in 14 appearances for AAA Oklahoma posting a 4-5 record with a 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. So-so, right?
That
followed 13 equally
so-so starts at AA Frisco where he went 5-4, 4.15, 1.38. That won’t leave
you terribly excited. But in
AA he was hit around in April to the tune of .397 (OBA) allowing a .738
OSLG%
and 1.185 OOPS. He gave up a .2.23 WHIP that month and 2.6 HR/9 in 27.1
IP
Then came May (21.2) and the results were considerably better … .190/.380/.636, a 1.02 WHIP, and 1.66 HR/9. As is customary, June followed that and John got even better in 24.2 IP. He held opponents to .231/.341/611 with a 1.05 WHIP and just 0.36 HR/9.
Overall
he whiffed 10.8/9 while walking
2.8/9. So you see his total AA line simply didn’t tell the
whole story.
As similar pattern emerged in AAA where after a .283/.609/.962 July, allowing a 1.54 WHIP and 2.78 HR/9, John settled down in August. His opponents hit .222/.389/.584 with a 1.24 WHIP and 0.33 HR/9.
His
command suffered at 4.3 BB/9 overall, and even 3.9 in
August, but he maintained a strong 9.2/9 K rate overall.
John
throws a fastball
(91-94), change and curve with relatively equal skill although his
strong curve
may still be his best pitch. He’s been working on adding a
2-seam fastball to
mix things up a bit more. John’s pitches are fully installed
and fairly good.
At 22, with a 6-1, 200 frame you can reasonably expect him to add
another foot
or two to his fast ball and that would probably make a big difference
in his
ceiling.
Command is also a variable on two levels. First, if he could get closer to 3 BB/9 at the major league level that would be a help as well. That may come with maturity. He is not that far off.
Second,
he tends to get up in the zone and his fastball is not good
enough to live there. He needs to stay down and that would even help
him throw
some much-needed groundballs.
John
is a tenant-at-will in
the White Sox rotation, and his hold on that job is less than totally
stable.But the White Sox would do well to keep in mind that he tends to
rebound nicely
after struggling with level jumps. If they show some patience with the
kid he
will probably reward them.
Danks
will need to control
the walks and homers to be viable, but he can be much better than that
with
just a reasonable bump in velocity and command. His ceiling is probably
that of
a #2, but the question is whether he’ll be a good #2 or not.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade B-
Year
Level W L ERA
WHIP G
2004
A 1
4 5.24 1.60
13 55 62
4.3 7.9 0.8
2004
A 3
2 2.17 1.06
14 49.2 38 2.6 11.7
0.7
2005
AA 4
10 5.49 1.54
18 98.1 117
3.1 7.8 1.1
2005
A 3
3 2.50 1.15
10 57.2 50 2.5 8.3 0.8
2006
AA 5
4 4.15 1.39
13 69.1 74 2.9 10.7
1.4
2006
AAA 4
5 4.33 1.44
14 70.2 67 4.4 9.2 1.4
Taylor Tankersley –
Relief
Pitcher – Throws Left
– 3/7/1983
Much
like Craig Hansen in
What
Tankersley does do well
is mix up his fastball and slow slider/curve hybrid to keep hitters off
balance. He also uses a decent change to keep RHH off the scent. His
fastball
lacks consistency as well due to a delivery that seems (based on
results) to
hard to repeat. He tops out at 92 with the fastball but he comes up
sub-90
quite often. It may be that very lack of consistency however that
allowed him
to hold opponents to a .125 OBA in AA Carolina last summer in 28 IP and
.228 in
41 MLB IP with the Marlins last year.
He seemingly does not have the stuff to support his 12.7/9 K rate in the minors last year or his 10.1/9 K rate with the Marlins but you can’t argue with the numbers. That’s a closer-level K rate to go along with his closer-level OBA.
Last
year with the
Marlins however, he walked 26 in 41 IP, a 5.4/9 BB rate. Along with the
33 hits allowed,
we are talking about a 1.44 WHIP. That won’t fly. He was better at AA
walking 14 (4.4/9) but
that BB rate is way too high as well. It’s obviously not a
matter of jitters,
Those issues will keep him from serious consideration as the primary closer for at least a bit. But it was shoulder issues that compelled the Marlins to covert him to a reliever in the first place, and he started out the year on the DL with a barking shoulder. That is something to watch.
Another
thing to watch is Jorge Julio and Henry Owens.
If they cannot handle the closing duties, that may force the Marlins to
go to
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-
Year
Level W L ERA
WHIP G
2004
A 1
1 3.38 1.11
6 26.2
21 2.7
11.0 0.7
2005
A 2
7 5.18 1.50
12 66
74
3.4 8.6 1.6
2005
A 1
0 3.38 1.25
4 24
21
3.4 7.1 0.4
2006 AA 4 1 0.95 0.89 22 28.1 11 4.5 12.8 0.0
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