Jason Marquis who led the NL in losses in 2006 had a solid debut for the Cubs on
Thursday limiting the Reds to 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks over 6 IP. He only
fanned one but he also threw 9 GBOs. He left the game
with a 2-1 lead but the Cubs bullpen was ragged and Bobby Howry
gave up two runs, one earned and took the loss. Jason is a text book example of
a guy you want to stay away from. He gives up more than a hit per inning (.289
OBA last year), carries low K rate (4.4/9 in 2006 and 4.3/9 in 2005), he gives
up the long ball (average of 32 in the last two seasons, .868 OPS last year), and
he walks guys (1.28 K/BB last year, 1.45 in 2005) ... Still ... he pitched well yesterday ... Still ...
stay away.
Fans in
I have never been the
biggest Chuck James fan. It's not
that I don't think he's a talented young pitcher, I
just tend to lean more towards young power pitchers when prospecting, which
James is decidedly not. His start on Thursday however shows how effective he can
be. Still it wasn't quite as rock solid as it's
resulting pitching line. Chuck held the Phillies to 1
run in 5 IP on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 5. He threw 50 strikes in 86
IP and his GB/FB split was just 2/8.
Chuck maintains a serviceable K rate, 6.8/9 last year despite not blowing
people away. His success comes from missing bats (a .232 OBA in 119 IP last
year). He doesn't help himself a lot though. He's not particularly stingy with
walks (47 in
119 IP last year, 1.94 K/BB) and he gives up too many flyballs
(0.50 GB ratio in 05). That leads to HRs. Chuck gave up 20 gophers last year in a
little over half the amount of innings he's expected to throw this year. James
is a high-level pitching prospect and will be effective often, but for my money
his margin for error is too slim. He might have had some trouble with some of
those 9 FBO on Thursday if it weren't 43 degrees and Chuck will also
need to become a bit more efficient in terms of pitch count and it remains to
be seen if he can do that without becoming more hittable in the process. He could very well be a Glavine-type
of guy eventually but I think I'd been willing to let someone else in my league
invest heavily to find out.
Clay Condrey
started his relief appearance yesterday by striking out the first 5 Braves he
faced. He went on to take two innings off the board without allowing a
baserunner, striking out 5. There's nothing in his minor league history to
indicate Clay can be dominant enough to move towards the 8th and 9th
innings but you can't prove it by the Braves yesterday. In 91.1 career MLB IP
so far Clay has allowed 98 hits and 38 walks (1.49) and a .318 OBA (.833 OPS).
About the only thing he does consistently well at this level is throw GBs, ground balls (1.84 career GB ratio). That's why he's a
middle reliever. It's ok to pay attention to yesterday and watch for follow up
performances, but don't invest yet.
Matt Morris
kept the ball in the ballpark on Thursday and as a result kicked off his season
with a strong win. Morris allowed the Padres 5 hits and 2 walks in 6 IP (1.16),
giving up 1 run while striking out 2. He coaxed 9 GBO from the Padres while
getting 7 FBOs . Matt sports a career 1.62 GB ratio
but homers have been his undoing. He's allowed 22 in each of the last two
seasons, a vast improvement over the 35 he gave up in 2004, but still a problem. Last year 14 of
those HRs came with runners on and Matt allowed a .297 OBA and .852 OPS with runners on
(and mostly from the stretch), 49 average points and 152 OPS point
higher than from the windup. Matt is not the dominating pitcher we envisioned
when he broke in but he is capable of a fairly solid, middle-of-the-rotation
type of season in SF. He has to avoid the long ball and control the game better
with runners on.
