John Maine made Met fans forget about the strength of their rotation (well, at least for now). He was masterful against the Cardinals last night, giving up just 1 hit in 7.0 IP with 6 K's. Maine is not the next Tom Seaver, but there's no reason to believe he can't repeat his 15-start performance from 2006. Recall that he posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and held opposing batters to just a .212 BAA. He's definitely off to the right start this season and has a great opportunity to post another couple of W's with expected starts against the Phillies and the Nationals next week (a two-start fantasy pitcher).
Takashi Saito - Not so fast Broxton owners. Saito may have had a bit of a rough outing last night, but still managed to earn a 5-out save. He gave up a 2-run double in the 8th inning after coming in with the bases loaded and then gave up a HR and a double to JJ Hardy and Prince Fielder to open the 9th. But he held on and earned his first save of the season. There's no denying Saito's great 2006 season of 24 saves, 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and BAA of .177. But the Dodgers have Jonathan Broxton waiting in the wings and at 37, Saito will almost certainly be replaced at some point this season. A few rough outings and that day could come sooner rather than later.
Woody Williams got roughed up on Wednesday, giving up 8 hits, 5 runs (3 earned), on 2 BB with no K's in 4.2 IP. He's a risky option, especially in mixed leagues, for the 2007 season. Taking a look at some of the forecaster tools presented in this pre-season's drafting software, Williams' 3-year quality start factor is 46 (measured as percentile from 0-100 with 100 being the highest). At 40, you can also expect Williams to struggle in the 2nd half. His dominance is minimal with a low and declining 3-year K/I and playing in Houston with a ballpark factor of 92 is the icing on the cake. A 4.50+ ERA, 1.40 WHIP is conservative for Williams. Consider him only in NL-only leagues.
Ryan Dempster - You, me, and the entire north-side of Chicago is just waiting for Ryan Dempster to blow a save so he can be replaced. For now, that's not the case. He earned his first save of the season with a relatively perfect 9th (he walked a batter). He's the solution for now, but he's coming off a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2006. I wouldn't expect anything different from him and the Cubs, who should actually be competitive this year. They will not have the same patience to deal with Dempster like they did last year. If you have him on your squad, consider him a temporary source of saves.
Jeff Suppan was handed a loss in his first decision of the season, but he actually looked pretty good against the Dodgers. 7.0 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 2 K's is his line. His move to Milwaukee (a change of ballpark factors from 108 at Busch to 98 at Miller Park) shouldn't affect his overall performance that much. Looking at 3-year trends, Suppan's HR/9 has steadily declined over the last 3 years from 1.20, 1.11, to 0.99. We have him forecasted at 0.95 (a total of 21 HR in 200 IP). His ERA and WHIP results have been relatively consistent, hovering in the low 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP range. Another year of comparable performance is likely.
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