Scott Olsen
I've been getting a lot of questions regarding Scott Olsen of late and with good reason. Olsen's off to an atrocious start this season and as Schuyler reported late last week the control issues are the obvious concern. Furthermore whenever there are significant control issues around younger pitchers, we tend to assume an injury may be latent. Olsen's innings total did increase by over 80 Innings last year which raises more red flags with regards to potential injury history. Despite these concerns, which I maintain are very legitimate, I continue to recommend pursuing Olsen if he's sitting on your FA list. The reason being, while Olsen's control has been very shaky, it's improved of late (only walking 3 in his last outing) and although his ERA is an ugly 6.92 right now, his expected ERA is closer to the high 4's mostly due to an atrocious Strand Rate of .61. While there are injury concerns around Olsen, the potential dividends on a guy like Olsen if he is healthy and returns to form are quite large. Olsen's averaged just below a K/Inning at the big league level and has the ability to match our lofty pre-season projections of 14-9, 3.72 ERA, with 186 K's. Olsen's next start will come Wednesday at home against Atlanta. For current Olsen owners I'd keep him reserved until the control issues are straightened out, but for those seeing Olsen on your FA list, keep a close eye on this next outing, if the command issues are squared away and his K rate of close to 1 returns, you're looking at a potential FA steal. Not many times during a season will you have the chance to acquire a potential 180 K + pitcher, and Olsen's early season struggles may have opened a premier buying opportunity for fantasy owners.
Kelly Johnson
If you're looking for a sleeper on the waiver wire to help fill a void at your 2B position, Kelly Johnson could be your man. He'll certainly draw more attention after Sunday's 3-4 2 HR performance with 3 Runs and 4 RBI's, but Johnson's impressive start to the season began prior to Sunday's impressive breakout performance. While Johnson was sporting an underwhelming .245 average coming into Sunday, he had walked 10 times and only struck out 5 times in the Braves first 13 games. He'd also contributed 2 SB's and scored 11 Runs, this was despite a paltry .179 BHIP% that is bound to come back. The biggest concern coming into the season with Johnson was his ability to transition to 2B from a defensive perspective and while there have been some up's and down's early in the season, the transition for the most part has been smooth. Two things particularly really intrigue me early in the season when evaluating Johnson: 1) the superb EYE and 2) the willingness to run. If Johnson can contribute in the speed category and maintain a strong EYE he'll likely push for a 15-15 or even 20-20 season with HR's and SB's while producing plenty of runs as the leadoff man.
Jason Varitek
Another very impressive outing for Jason Hirsh on Sunday improved his record to 2-1. Pitching in Coors Field against the Padres, Hirsh allowed 2 ER in 7 innings while striking out 7 and only allowing 6 base-runners. In 26 innings of work this year, Hirsch has 23 K's and 7 BB's and has only allowed 2 HR's. Hirsch's totals in the minor leagues were extremely impressive as he was dominant at limiting HR's, managing his BB's, and averaging nearly a K/inning at every level. While ideally the K rate would be a bit higher in truly elite pitching prospects, Hirsh did impress in the 3 most important statistics when evaluating prospects. Don't be fooled by Hirsh's brief unsuccessful stint in the majors with the Astros last season, Hirsh can really pitch and despite pitching in Colorado his great HR allowed totals in the minors suggest he could have plenty of success in his major league career. Hirsh's minor league totals remind me of a less dominant Rich Hill, while he certainly pitches in a ballpark that could scare owners away, I think Hirsh is a good target in keeper leagues.
Tom Gorzelanny
Gorzelanny is another SP I've been getting plenty of questions about of late and with another strong start on Sunday I assume he'll be one of the hotter FA acquisitions this week. Gorzelanny improved to 3-0 on the season and actually raised his ERA to 2.05 on the season. He allowed 3 earned runs in his 6 innings of work, walking 2 and striking out 6. Gorzelanny's hot start to the season has been aided by a low BHIP% of .234 and an unusually high Strand Rate of .84 so I do want to temper owners' enthusiasm a bit. With that said, I do like Gorzelanny quite a bit. In the minors he posted solid K rates, BB rates, and was absolutely stellar at limiting HR's. In the majors the HRs allowed continues to be his primary strength and last year's struggles with control appear to be an anomaly, but he still doesn't have fantastic K rates. Because of the average K rates and poor W potential playing with PIT, I see Gorzelanny more of a contributor in deeper formats as he'll post strongWHIP and ERA totals (think 1.27, 3.60) but he'll likely only produce 130-150 K's with low double digit Wins. While Gorzelanny is certainly worth owning in many formats, for fantasy purposes I'd still rather take a chance on a guy like Scott Olsen's upside right now than own Gorzelanny. In the right spot Gorzelanny makes a ton of sense and is certainly worth some of the attention he'll be receiving this week, but he's not the next Jerad Weaver, Francisco Liriano, or Matt Cain and his numbers may look a bit better than Tom Glavine this year, without the great W potential. That's the type of player I'd expect Gorzelanny to be going forward.
Dan Uggla
A monster day for Dan Uggla on Sunday and suddenly his early season slump appears a bit behind him. Uggla drove in 6 runs while going 3-5 and hitting his 2nd and 3rd HR's of the season. Despite the big day, my expectations remain tempered for Uggla's 2007 season. He's going to hit for power and approach 90 Runs hitting out of the 2nd slot in the Marlins underappreciated lineup, his K Rate continues to rise as it did during the 2nd half of last season, when he still added value with his power, but struggled to hit for average. I foresee Uggla's 2nd half being more of the norm for his sophomore campaign as the league continues to develop a book on him. While he'll still hold value hitting 20+ HR's and approaching 80 RBI's and 90 Runs, his weak EYE and high K rate will likely inhibit his batting average and keep him closer to the .265-.275 range.
