Its been frustrating to be a Mark Teixeira owner over the last couple of years and the first fantasy week of the season is no exception. He had another 0-for-4 night last night and is just 4-for-19 (.211) in 2007. He has yet to hit a HR and has only driven in 1 RBI in the first 6 games. It feels like the same story from last year, when he had only 8 HR through the first 3 months of the season, followed by a solid post all-star break performance of .a .998 OPS and 24 HR and 61 RBI. Tex should be averaging a dinger for every 16 AB, so at just 19 AB for the season, he's not lagging behind by far. By when other sluggers like Ortiz, A-Rod, and Vlad have already hit multiple HR's, patience can wear thin with guys like Teixeria. Give him some time and expect a better upcoming fantasy week from the switch-hitting 1B. Other than facing Felix Hernandez at the back-end of this week, the Rangers have plenty of opportunities against some weaker pitchers on the Devil Rays and Mariners this week.
I'm the first to admit that I was a big Brad Wilkerson supporter when he made the move from Washington to Texas. Realizing his power potential seemed to be a logical story for the 2006 season, but it obviously never came. Mixed in with some injuries, Wilkerson posted a .222 average, 15 HR, and 44 RBI in just 320 AB (good for an FPI of 0.49). While that may equate to a decent HR/AB of 21.3, there's a ton of glaring holes in his numbers. First, he averaged a strikeout for every 3.1 plate appearances last season. He's basically striking out at least one time every game. With that high strikeout rate and an OBP of .303 last season, he posted an EYE of 0.32. He has started the 2007 season the same way, going just 3-for-16 (.188) in the first 5 games with 6 K's. He may swipe you some bases and give you a streaky week from time-to-time, but he should only be considered in deep AL-only leagues.
Scott Kazmir began the day looking unstoppable. He struck out 8 of the first 9 outs he recorded on Sunday and struck out the side in the first two innings of work. The Blue Jays finally hit him up for some hits and runs and Kazmir's final line was 7.0 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, and 10 K's. You basically draft Kazmir for his 200 K potential and low ERA/WHIP and a win would be gravy. Unfortunately, no gravy yet, as Kazmir is 0-1 in two starts with no quality starts.
Being a Yankee fan and having watched Kevin Millar pretty closely when he was with the Red Sox, I've seen this out of Millar before. He's a streaky player and goes on hot-streaks. He hit his first HR of the season yesterday, but hit the ball hard in his other AB's as well. He ended the day 2-3 with a HR, double, and 3 RBI. Want some examples of these streaks? Last September, he hit 5 HR with a .344 average and a 1.000 OPS when for the rest of the year, he hit a total of 10 HR. In other words, September produced over 25% of his full-year production in hits, doubles, RBI, and a third in HR. June 2005 and July 2004 had similar results. Looking for a flier for the week? Millar might be a good choice.
Akinori Otsuka's fantasy value is up in the air right now. With Eric Gagne set to return on Friday, Otsuka will likely slip into the 8th inning setup role, making him a valuable Holds guy in some fantasy leagues. That doesn't mean Otsuka's value is meaningless in other leagues. With Gagne's lingering health issues, expect Otsuka to at least split some of the save opportunities for the first couple of weeks until Gagne returns to full form. Manager Ron Washington has indicated they will take their time with Gagne's return. If Gagne goes back on the DL at any point during the season (probably a likely scenario given the last couple of years), Otsuka is obviously the prime candidate to get the save chance.
