Which Corey Patterson can we expect for 2007? Remember when he was considered a potential 30/30 guy? We think he's more like a 20/40 guy, but if he can put together more than 500 AB for the first time since 2004 (when he hit 24 dingers), we could see his power increase slightly. A healthy Co-Pat has some power upside heading into the season, but you can definitely depend on getting plenty of speed from the Orioles' CF. If you have a deep OF on your team, consider playing Patterson in the right situation. Facing lefties in 2006, Patterson only hit .201 with OBP of .238 and just 3 HR. Against righties, he hit .301 with an OBP of .341 and 13 dingers. That's a HR/AB difference of 40.3 against lefties compared to 26.3 against righties.
Jose Contreras gets the nod for the White Sox on opening day. You may recall the different sides of Contreras from 2006. First half of the season, he was masterful, going 9-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and holding opposing hitters to a .237 BAA. After the all-star break, Contreras pitched like George Steinbrenner was in the stands watching him. He went 4-9 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a .279 BAA. Contreras suffered some back and hamstring problems by the end of last season, but appears healthy going into this season. If his splitter is working, he stays healthy, and he can handle the pressure on the south side, he can be a dominant pitcher again. But at "35"years old, his health and age becomes a bit of a concern.
The Yankees outfield has some of the big marquee fantasy names in the game - Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Bobby Abreu. While each player will put up solid fantasy numbers throughout the year, you will want to actively manage their playing time on your rosters. Manager Joe Torre has already indicated that he expects to get Melky Cabrera at least 300 AB this season and will give the starting-3 plenty of time off and rest throughout the year. This does not automatically mean a day as the DH. The Yankees are already strapped having Doug Mientkiewicz as their starting 1B and Jason Giambi as their permanent DH. So if you have Giambi on your team, he may be the odd-man out from time-to-time as well. This won't be a regular occurrence, but if Cabrera is going to get 300 AB, you will want to be prepared if your fantasy player is going to be rested.
The youngest pitcher to start opening day since Dwight Gooden in 1986, Felix Hernandez is poised to let it loose this season. He won't be restricted to less than 200 IP like last year and at just 20-years-old, could have quite a break-out year. We have him forecasted at 210 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15 wins, and 203 K's. While last year's performance from an ERA and WHIP perspective was mediocre at 4.52 and 1.34, he still managed to post an 8.3 K/9 and a respectable 2.8 BB/9. His outs are made on the ground with a GB/FB of 2.3 and he was able to keep the ball in the park at a HR/9 of 1.08 (not bad with a little help from the 'ol Safeco ballpark factor of 109). King Felix should live up to his nickname this year.
Josh Towers gets the #5 starting spot for the Jays to start the year and Victor Zambrano will be moved to the 'Pen (yes, the same "Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir" Zambrano - sorry Met fans). We have seen the best and the worst from Towers in the last two years. In 2005, Towers posted a decent 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 13 wins. He followed up the solid performance with a laugher in 2006 - 8.42 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and a 2-10 record in just 62 IP. Towers had a good spring with a 2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a K/9 over 8.0 in over 25 IP. So the big question remains - what can we expect of him in 2007? Well, don't expect a similar regular season performance as his spring, but he's definitely not as bad as last season's statistics may indicate. He may be valuable in spot-start situations for your team, but remember, he'll have to face the Red Sox and the Yankees a few times this season pitching in the AL East which could inflate his numbers. I wouldn't rush to the wires to grab him.
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