What would you give to have Hank Blalock to return to his 2003 and 2004 seasons? Those were the years Blalock posted 0.69 and 0.66 FPI's, HR/AB under 20.0, and OPS in the high .800's. Let's take a walk through time, starting with 2003 and ending with 2007. His FPI's, in chronological order, are 0.69, 0.66, 0.54, 0.52, and ending with 0.50 so far in 2007. Talk about an obvious trend. It's a smooth decline and his low 2007 FPI is aided by his lack of homeruns in 63 AB. Manager Ron Washington has worked closely with Blalock to get him back to form, but there are few signs of a turnaround. In fact, he's striking out more now than he had in previous years. He has a strikeout for every 4.2 plate appearances compared to 6.6 last season.
Joe Mauer has been pretty quiet up there in Minnesota, but he's hitting .393 with 15 runs and 9 RBI so far this season. His totals to date are good for a 0.99 FPI. That's without ANY homeruns. He has yet to go long this season and you have to wonder if he will ever recognize this so-called "power potential"that is talked about every season. He did post a slight improved from 2005 to 2006 in his HR per AB ratio, from 54.3 to 40.1. Of course, this year's rate is undefined since his HR total is zero, but I expect him to go on a power tear at some point this season and flirt with 20 HR by the end of the season.
So I was wondering why one of the guys in my league (and a fellow Fantistics subscriber - we'll call him Ryan for now) was especially eager to trade Richie Sexson to me last week. Maybe he knew the atrocious weekend Sexson would have this past weekend. He went 0-for-11 and when he actually made contact, only drove the ball out of the infield once. And his response to his pitiful performance? "Its all about the team." Thanks Richie. Over the last two years, Sexson posted a 0.70 and a 0.63 FPI. This season, he's hovering around the 0.45 mark. His power hasn't disappeared, averaging a HR for every 15.7 AB this season, in-line with 14.3 and 17.4 in 2005 and 2006. And sure, he's striking out a ton, but that isn't abnormal for him. He has a strikeout for every 3.8 plate appearances so far in 2007, compared to 3.9 in 2005 and 4.3 in 2006. He'll bounce back from all of this and still put up solid numbers.
Don't look now, but Jason Varitek is swinging a mighty bat. Maybe he just stepped up his game in the Yankee series, but he was 6-for12 this weekend with 2 HR and 4 RBI, raising his average from .189 to .265. Varitek has definitely shown the signs of an aging catcher and his numbers have suffered over the last couple of years. His FPI dropped from 0.67 to 0.50 from 2006 to 2005. His power went way down in the same time period, with a HR for every 21.4 AB in '05 compared to 30.4 in '06. Varitek can still post a .265 average, driving in 75 runs, and knock close to 20 dingers this season, but its obvious the 35-year-old is breaking down a bit. From a fantasy standpoint, he has AL-only value and is a decent fill-in if your regular catcher gets a day-off or is injured.
James Shields will be added by lots of fantasy teams this week after recording 10 K's against the Indians yesterday. He was on his game, hurling 8.0 IP and giving up just 2 ER's to earn his 2nd quality start of the year. In his previous three starts, Shields struck-out 3, 8, and 5 batters. His strikeout totals are not surprising and he should be good for a K.9 of 7.8 this season. Right now, he's hovering the 9.0 K/9 level and it will be impossible for him to keep up that pace. If you want to hop on the bandwagon, I'm not going to stop you, but he's probably just an AL-only type of pitcher for the long-haul.
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