John Danks
Thanks to MLB's wonderful blackout system on Saturday afternoon's I was left switching between blacked out channels until I found the White Sox-Indians game on WGN. Fortunately this gave me the opportunity to take a deeper look at John Danks. Danks zoomed through the Rangers system with adequate but not eye popping numbers and seemed to be more of a scout's darling. What I saw on Saturday was a bit mixed. Danks ended up pitching 5 1/3 effective innings against a loaded Indians offense. He only allowed 2 earned runs but did allow 8 base-runners. He only walked 1 and struck out 4 on the day. From a positive standpoint I came away impressed with Danks natural movement on his fastball that seemed to really give LH bats trouble picking it up. Danks also threw 60 of his 96 pitches for strikes, so while his pitch count was high for the 5 1/3 innings it was more a result of the Indians really grinding out AB's against him and not Danks wildness. On the negative side, Danks worked up in the zone much of the game and was only able to record 3 outs on the ground. He gave up 2 HR's and pitching in a homer friendly ballpark in Chicago, this looks like it will be a consistent problem all year long. While Danks at the age of 21 still has plenty of room to grow, it appears this season could have its fair share of rocky starts poisoned by the HR ball.
BJ Ryan
Ryan was atrocious on Saturday and blew his 2nd save of the season in 5 opportunities. Ryan only blew 4 saves all of last season and while he's had an incredible run as a reliever the workload he's put up over the last 3 seasons (210 appearances, 229 2/3 innings) is one that could potentially be catching up with Ryan. Its way too early to draw conclusions but early signs of arm trouble can be indicated with a loss of control. Ryan's shaky 3 walk performance on Saturday could've simply been a miserable outing and nothing more, and certainly we can attribute some of Ryan's slow start to 2007 to his late start (missing most of spring training) in preparation. I don't want to give the impression that I think Ryan could be breaking down because it really is much to early to jump to any conclusions, but most relievers shelf-life of dominance is in the 3-5 year range and I wanted to at least bring the idea to the attention of his owners if the control issues continue to linger.
Ichiro Suzuki
I'm going to flash some warning signs to Ichiro owners out there. Before I do though, I'll throw out the old caveat that some of this may be attributed to the Mariners atrocious schedule that's continually interrupted their hitters a chance at getting any sort of timing. However Ichiro's already racked up 8 K's in his first 26 AB's, which means he's striking out at a rate of more than 3 times his career rate. On top of that Ichiro's currently posting a BHIP% of .235 and while that would often be a strong indicator of some bad luck playing a big part in Ichiro's slow start (and some of it is), it's important to note much of Ichiro's value comes as a result of his ability to produce a higher BHIP% due to his speed. Ichiro's OPS has decreased 3 consecutive seasons and with his power diminishing nearly all of his value comes from his legs. While a lower BHIP% could be a result of some bad luck for Ichiro this season, I fear it also could be a result of Ichiro losing a step at age 33. If Ichiro's speed diminishes or this significant increase in his K rate continues, his value will drop drastically.
BJ Upton
It seemed for years we heard about Upton's prowess as one of the top prospects in baseball and it seemed every year we'd be disappointed by his arrival at the major league level with both his bat and his glove. This season it appears Upton has a solidified role defensively and it appears it's helped his comfort level at the plate. After another 2-4 performance on Saturday night Upton now sits at a nice .394 clip early in the season. While the hot start has gotten a lot of attention in fantasy circles I'd like to warn fantasy owners to hopefully temper their expectations a bit. While I think Upton will certainly have value this year as a 2B in fantasy leagues I think the value will come more from the SB department along with a bit of power than the current gaudy all around numbers he's posting. Upton's currently benefiting from an absurd .563 BHIP% and has struck out in 13 of his 33 AB's so far in the season. Upton had a high K rates throughout his minor league career but was usually able to get away with it because of his ability to hit for power. In the majors I think the type of power he hit for in the minors might take a bit of time to come around and as a result the batting average will likely fall closer to the .280's than the .300's and the majority of his value will be derived from the SB. While many young 2B are breaking onto the scene this season (Kinsler, Weeks, Upton, etc) I think Upton has the least likely chance for fantasy superstardom this season, so if you can find someone willing to pay for Upton as a sure thing, or already have enough speed on your roster it might be worth entertaining offers for him.
Derek Jeter
My good buddy BCon must be spinning on his sofa while watching Yankee games these days. A Bull Durham enthusiast and honorary member of the Derek Jeter fan club knows it better than anyone. "It's a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball". While the Yankees appear to be overcoming the challenges of finding someone healthy to "throw the ball", and they certainly have appeared to mastered the "hit the ball", they can't seem to figure out the "catch the ball"part. Going into this season it was safe to assume the Yankees would be below average defensively with below average defenders on their roster at 1B, 2B, SS, LF, and RF along with Johnny Damon's ineffective throwing arm in CF, but could anyone predict it would be this bad? Jeter made 2 more errors on Saturday night raising his total to 5 on the season through the team's first 10 games. Jeter's now on pace to easily surpass his big league career season high of 24, set in 2000 and is currently resembling the SS he was way back in rookie ball when he made 56 errors in one season. Thankfully for most fantasy owners Jeter's poor start defensively isn't getting in the way of his offense, but for those of you partaking in ScoreSheet baseball leagues or any other league that takes into account defense Jeter's really a liability right now in those facets.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here link:www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today link:www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
