Freddy Sanchez's second opinion on his knee sprain didn't provide positive news for fantasy owners. He'll likely start the season on the DL and appear back in the lineup sometime around April 7th. The reigning NL batting champion is still poised for another .300 season, but should be dropped in most drafts due to his health uncertainty. Consider him a mid-teen round pick.
Pre-Season trade announcements can drive fantasy owners insane. A player you thought might hold a particular role ends up going to another team to fill a void that was unexpected. The good news is that yesterday's Elmer Dessens for Brady Clark trade has little fantasy impact except for some deep NL only leagues. Clark will replace the injured Jason Repko and become the fourth outfielder for the Dodgers (behind lefties Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Andre Ethier). Don't be surprised to see a majority of Clark's playing time against righties. In 2006, his lefty/righty split was pronounced - posting a 0.57 FPI against righties in 147 plate appearances and 0.43 against lefties in 311 PA's.
Despite some lingering bicep tendonitis, Freddy Garcia is still expected to be ready for the start of the season and open at some point during the Marlins season. Like most of the Sox pitchers, his 2006 was a let-down coming off 2005. His WHIP went up slightly from 1.25 to 1.28, ERA up from 3.87 to 4.54, HR/9 increased from 1.03 to 1.33, and H/9 up from 8.8 to 9.5. Despite Garcia's drop in production, a move to the NL this year should help some of those numbers, but early-season injury woes will prevent him from putting up some of the W and K numbers. The Fantistics' Player Projection software has him logging under 200 IP this season with 131 K's, 12 wins, and an improved ERA that comes-in just under 4.00. His ADP is 15, but slowly dropping in my book due to his injury concerns,
With the Marlins acquiring Jorge Julio to be their full-time closer, no more rumors about Armando Benitez making the move to southern Florida. So for now, you can cross the Marlins off the list, but keep the Mariners in the rumor mix. With a solid spring under his belt (healthy knees, 7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA, 9 K's, 1 BB), he'll be the guy in the 9th for the Giants to start the season. You can build your closer situation on him, but a late-draft pick could still yield you 30-saves from Benitez this year.
The coverage of Daisuke Matsuzaka's arrival has been extraordinary. There's certainly no denying his preseason success, but when a pitcher hurls 5 innings of no-hit ball and then sulks in the clubhouse refusing to talk to reporters, the press coverage will likely reach another level (especially in towns like Boston and NY). Granted, he was a bit wild in yesterday's performance, allowing 5 walks in his 5.0 IP, but still managed to strike out 6 in his no-hit effort. I'm not sure if this perfectionist display of disappointment in his performance annoys me or intrigues me. Either way, he continues to climb to the early rounds of draft boards, but be careful not to get trapped by over-estimating his fantasy value. While anything can happen this season (think Hideki Irabu), we have him forecasted to hurl 195 innings with a 1.27 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, 188 K's, and 16 wins. This forecast is a solid assessment of his potential without giving too much value to his upside. It also doesn't de-value his move either. Looking back on his last two seasons with the Seibu Lions, Dice-K posted a K/9 of 9.5 and 9.8. Our forecast drops this by a full-point to 8.7, giving credit to the higher level of hitting talent in the majors Additionally, I would also expect to see a significant difference between his first-half and second-half performances, as exhaustion combined with improved scouting (and league knowledge about the gyroball) begins to set-in.
Tom Glavine falls into that category of "He used to be really good and now he's that old guy on fantasy boards that people are afraid to draft." Be brave and consider him in some of the final rounds in your draft. The "41"next the age column is a bit scary, but he has averaged 206 IP since 2002 and should be good for another 200+ this season. Here's another positive thought: from 2005 to 2006, Glavine was able to improve his K/BB to over 2.0 and K/9 from about 4.5 to almost 6.0. The rest of his numbers for 2007 should remain relatively consistent with his last two years, so expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and about 14 wins.
The Yankees answer to the Dice-K purchase was a cheaper Japanese pitching acquisition by the name of Kei Igawa. Igawa is certainly no Dice-K, but could prove to be an important member of the Yankees rotation if injuries to Andy Pettitte and Chien Ming Wang continue throughout the season. He's still working on his pitching repertoire (evident of his three 55-foot change-ups in yesterday's game), but I like Igawa's upside as an early-20's round pick. As a reference point (and with the caveat that Japanese baseball is different than MLB), Igawa posted a 2.97 ERA last season with a K/9 of 8.4, WHIP of 1.10, and a BB/9 of 2.1. Scaling-back some of these numbers, Igawa should still be good for at least a dozen wins, a 1.35 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, and a K/9 of 7.8 (equates to about 170 K's in a 200 IP season). If Igawa can be a staple in the rotation, I would expect that win-forecast to go up slightly with Yankee run-support and the benefits of being a lefty in Yankee stadium.
Say what you want about Alex Rodriguez, but he's certainly one of the leading candidates for the AL MVP in 2007. After belting his 3rd HR of the spring in yesterday's game, A-Rod looks poised to post another season of at least 35 HR (probably a bit conservative, considering he hit 48 in 2005), with 120+ RBI, 15 SB, and 115+ runs. We all know he can put up the numbers, but he also has something to prove after all of the negative press he gets in NY. I think this is the year he steps-it-up and proves the critics wrong about his ability to perform in the clutch. Expect another full season of A-Rod talk (especially as he approaches the 500 HR mark - he's 36 away and should be close to reaching the magical mark in the final few weeks of the season).
How do you make a Hall of Fame closer even better? Add a new pitch. Mariano Rivera has been fooling around with a change-up a bit more this spring and its definitely paying off. In 9.0 IP this spring training, he has struck out 9, has not given up a run, and has allowed only 4 hits. The rest of his stats line is zeroes. Mariano has "dropped"to about the 3rd or 4th closer in most mixed league fantasy drafts this season (behind Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez), but there's not doubt that Mo is expected to post 40+ saves with a sub-1.00 WHIP. With Torre guaranteeing Mariano will max-out at one-inning in any given outing, he should stay healthier and fresher as the season wears-on.
One thing to watch out for this season is Brad Hawpe's ability to hit lefties. In 2006, Hawpe put up some solid numbers as a whole, hitting .296 with 22 HR, 84 RBI, and 67 runs in under 500 AB (499 to be exact). That's a HR/AB of 22.7. But his performance against righties far outweighed his stats against lefties. Against the righty, Hawpe hit over .300 with a .924 OPS and posted a 0.76 FPI in 497 plate appearances. Against lefties, he hit just .232 with a .737 OPS and a 0.50 FPI in 76 PA's. I expect his overall numbers to improve and with 2007 being his 3rd full season in the big leagues, this lefty/righty gap should narrow a bit.
Brian Anderson's disappointing 2006 season may leave him riding the pine for the start of 2007. While he was once competing for the starting job in Center Field with Darin Erstad, he is now hoping he just makes the team. Even manager Ozzie Guillen has hinted at a Triple-A stint for Anderson to get his act together before rejoining the club. I think he ultimately makes the team, but just in a reserve role. There's little to no draft value for him at this point.
Khalil Greene finally looks healthy enough to put together solid numbers for 2007. He's hitting .440 this spring with 5 HR and 16 RBI. The ball is certainly jumping off his bat. Consider him on the move up the boards for what is expected to be his first season with 500+ AB. We also have him forecasted to reach 20 dingers, a .275 average, and 70+ RBI.
Daniel Cabrera will get the call to pitch the 2nd regular season game for the Orioles next week against the Twins. The same questions remain with Cabrera this year - will he have enough control and poise on the mound to live up to his talent? At just 25 years old, we have him breaking through with a 225 strikeout season, but not without a cost. While that strikeout total will lead to a 10.0+ K/9 if he hurls about 200 IP, he could also walk about 125, which equates to a 5.8 BB/9. Be careful not to draft Cabrera blindly without having a counter-balancing WHIP producer in your rotation.
