The JJ Putz watch continues for those intrigued by the Mariners closer situation. Putz did some soft throwing on Thursday for about five minutes to see how his arm reacted and said he felt fine afterwards. Putz's breakout 2006 season seemingly came out of nowhere and put Putz on the map as one of the better relief options heading into 2007. But should he have been? Putz K rate jumped through the roof last season and his control improved drastically as well transforming him from a solid bullpen option into a star closer overnight. However looking at his track record I've become a bit more skeptical of Putz's 2007 outlook. Putz had worked over 70 innings in 3 of the last 4 years and many relievers tend to have a shelf life of 3-4 years. On top of that Putz's previous 3 seasons, prior to his breakout in 2006, his K rate had consistently been in the .74 to .85 range, much lower than the 1.31 rate he established last season. If Putz can stay healthy he can certainly offer value as middle tier closer option, but I've seen him treated as a top tier closing option based on last year's spectacular numbers. Combine Putz's worrisome workload over the past 4 years with the likelihood of buying high on Putz after a career year and I'm likely to shy away from him in most leagues. We'll continue to keep fantasy owners updated on the injury situation going forward but mark this analyst down as a skeptic on Putz's value heading into 2007.
Joe Torre's seen enough out of Carl Pavano to hand him a rotation spot after his 4 outings this spring. However, as a casual fan it's hard to see what Pavano's proven this spring. Pavano's allowed 24 base-runners in a little over 12 innings of work so far this spring while only striking out 5. Contrary to what most would like you to believe the Yankees aren't a dumb organization. Handing Pavano a rotation spot serves a few purposes: 1) While the innings might not be pretty Pavano, when healthy, has been able to work deep into games averaging over 6 1/3 innings pitched per start while in Florida; 2) Pavano in the rotation gives the Yankees their best chance of recouping a return on their initial investment in Pavano through a trade. If Pavano gets off to a good start with the premium out there on starting pitching the Yankees could recoup an intriguing lower level arm to add to their arsenal while paying for some of Pavano's contract and then insert one of their up and coming minor league pitchers into his rotation slot. For fantasy owners, Pavano might be a worth a late round flier if you're fascinated with potential W's, however his spring peripherals and injury history suggest he's best left on the waiver wire.
Bobby Abreu smacked a 3 run HR in yesterday's 8-7 loss to the Reds. It was Abreu's first HR of the spring and should give owners preparing for their draft some confidence that Abreu is fully healed from an oblique strain. Abreu's one of the more underrated fantasy options after a 15 HR season in 2006 that dropped his value a bit and I'm struggling to understand why the big drop in his perceived value. Two years ago coming off of a 30 HR, 40 SB campaign Abreu was treated as a 1st round pick and one of the best options in fantasy for a speed-power combo. Fast forward two years and Abreu's moved to a loaded Yankees lineup and seen his power drop the last two years and he's gone from a 1st rounder to a 3rd-4th rounder. This is a perfect example of fantasy owners buying high and selling low, Abreu will be another 20-20 candidate with 100+ Runs and RBI's and is a steal in the 4th round and a solid 3rd round selection.
Boof Bonser's solid spring seems to be going a bit under the radar. Bonser's posted a 2.81 ERA this spring and in 16 spring innings has struck out 17 and walked just 2. The key number that draws my eye is Bonser's improved control. Much of Bonser's problems in the minors have come from a lack of control as he's always shown solid strikeout rates and has been at least average at keeping the ball in the park but suffered from walking too many batters as he averaged over 3.9 BB's per 9 innings at both the A and AA levels, but the number improved to 3.2 per 9 innings at the AAA level and declined even further to 2.15 walks per 9 innings at the major league level. Bonser's improved control and solid strikeout totals could make him a perfectly underrated back-end starter in mixed leagues and a solid mid-rotation guy in AL only leagues or deeper leagues. The one issue Bonser will have to control heading into 2007 will be his HR rate which jumped violently at the major league level last year. If Bonser keeps the ball in the park he could have a breakout season in 2007 that see him push his ERA into the low 4's with solid K totals.
Some of the big news out of Arizona yesterday revolved around Mark Prior's outing against the Padres. As a displaced Cubs fan in Florida, I spent the afternoon trying to follow the start as best I could and it appeared Prior's first inning of work was similar to his entire spring as his fastball sat in the low 80's and his control was spotty. He retired the first two batters but then gave up 4 singles before the inning ended with Matt Murton cutting down a runner at the plate. After the 1st inning Prior seemed to settle in and re-discover some of the stuff that had made him a phenom previously. He threw 3 more scoreless innings striking out 2 and walking 2. During the final 3 innings of the start his velocity increased and he started to sit in the 88-91 range, while touching 93 on occasion. He also seemed to regain some control of his curveball. It's a small step in the right direction for Prior but one that the Cubs and their fans needed to see. Prior remains a very risky late round flier until we see more consistency out of his velocity and his control, but this start likely earned him another chance to prove himself in spring games and give us another look early next week at his progression. If Prior continues to build on this success in his appearance early next week and appears to have re-discovered his velocity for good, he'll be a lot more viable a sleeper heading into 2007. Pay close to attention to his next scheduled appearance which looks to be next Tuesday.
Yesterday's big news around the fantasy world was the announcement that Jon Papelbon would be moved back into the closer's role for the Red Sox. The last few weeks have been littered with questions regarding the Marlins and Red Sox closer positions and Thursday we got a solid answer we can rely on regarding the Red Sox. Papelbon will move back into a role where he was as good as any reliever in the game last year. In an experts draft earlier in the off-season I nabbed Papelbon in the 10th round while premier closers like BJ Ryan, KRod, and Rivera all went in the 4th round in hopes of him eventually being moved back into the role. I'm sure many fantasy owners who drafted prior to yesterday have found an elite closer on their roster that they didn't anticipate having. Papelbon likely won't be able to replicate last year's success specifically as he was aided by a very high Strand Rate and a very low BHIP% in last season, but Papelbon will continue to be an elite closing option going forward (just don't expect a sub 1.00 ERA again).
If you're looking around the office today and noticing some gloomy faces on a Friday it could be coming from some Julian Tavarez owners. They feel like they've been lied to and betrayed, they went out on a limb and nabbed Tavarez on Terry Francona's suggestion that he was the closer heading into the season, but it was all for not. Tavarez isn't even a reliever now after flip-flopping roles with Papelbon yesterday. Tavarez will now be slated in as the 5th starter behind Tim Wakefield and offers minimal fantasy value going forward.
Jerome Williams appears closer to securing a rotation spot in Washington, the only reason I bring this up is I want to mention the Nationals potential rotation heading into 2007. Here are some of the candidates after John Patterson: Shawn Hill, Jason Simontacci, Matt Chico, Tim Redding, Jerome Williams. I honestly have no idea how this team is going to win 60 games, stay away from these guys even in NL only leagues.
Chipper Jones returned to action after missing 6 consecutive games with a strained oblique. He went 1-3 with an RBI 2B in the game. Jones has become one of the better per game producers at his position as he continues to pound out 20 HR seasons while only managing to play in 100-110 games a year over the last 2 years. Chipper's a bit underrated as a 3B option as his numbers are still quite strong when he plays, but if you draft him you have to be prepared for an extended DL stint at this point in his career.
Rafael Furcal was carted off the field on Thursday after a nasty collision with Jason Repko. Furcal originally thought he had broken the ankle but test results showed it was just a sprain. The Dodgers are currently suggesting Furcal will only miss a week of action, but I'd plan for further time missed. Furcal's sprain appears to be fairly serious and I'd expect he'd be out closer to 2 weeks or later and his ability to start on opening day is now in question.
Jered Weaver threw a 3 inning simulated game on Thursday and took what the Angels are calling a big step forward in his preparation for the season. Weaver threw without pain and while it still appears he'll miss 1-2 turns in the rotation and begin the season on the disabled list, major injury concerns regarding Weaver seem to have subsided.
A bit of concern came out of Twins camp regarding Joe Mauer on Thursday. Mauer's been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left leg and will sit out a few days to receive treatment. While the diagnosis is a bit shaky right now the Twins are suggesting the injury could have been a precursor to a stress fracture and with a little treatment should be OK. The MRI came up clean on his leg, but the mention of the word stress fracture should be enough to raise eyebrows around the fantasy world. Continue to monitor this situation closely going forward.
