Speculation surrounding Alex Rodriguez leaving the Yankees continues, this time with rumors about a move to the west coast to join the Angels at the end of the 2007 season. This is just one of many rumors that will be brought up throughout the season for A-Rod. From a fantasy perspective, its way too early to read into any of them. He continues to be the top 3B chosen in all mixed league drafts.
Good news out of Angels camp - Jered Weaver hurled a 45-pitch simulated game and had no discomfort. There's no mistaking what the young righty can do, posting a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 105 K's in just 123 IP in his rookie season of 2006. While his dominance last year is undisputed, we see him coming back to earth in his first full season of work. Our forecast has him at a 1.21 WHIP, 3.62 ERA, and 161 K's in 209 IP (K/9 of 6.9). One stat to keep an eye on in 2007 is Weaver's G/F (groundball to flyball) to ratio. He ended last season at 0.61, throwing 173 flyball outs compared to 106 groundballs. This led to a HR/9 of 1.10, so don't be surprised to see Weaver burned by the long-ball a few times again this season.
Randy Johnson's recovery from off-season back surgery continues to go well. He has yet to pitch in an actual Cactus League game, but that should come as early as this weekend. If you're drafting the Big Unit, expect him to start the season on the DL, but it should be retro (so you'll be without him for about a week or so to start the fantasy season). While he is 43 and has "struggled"in the past couple of years, he still managed to strikeout 172 last season while winning 17 games for the Yanks. While we thinking his inning total will drop below 200 for 2007, we still think he'll have a decent season and post 165+ K's, 1.19 WHIP, 4.13 ERA, and 12 wins. These figures have some upside too if he can stay healthy.
With some contending teams in the hunt for a closer throughout the season, Brad Lidge's name continues to be on the top of some lists (especially the Red Sox). The Astros said he's not on the market. 2006 was rough for the closer, but 2007 should be a solid bounce back year from a WHIP/ERA perspective with a similar save totals (30+). Being traded to a serious contender down the stretch could give him some save-upside toward the latter-half of the season.
Doug Davis continues to have a rough spring for the D-Backs. He has allowed 15 hits and 10 runs in eight innings of work. His early spring woes shouldn't be too much of a concern, but Davis' fantasy value is low anyway. Fantasy owners would love for him to repeat his 200+ K strikeout season from 2005, but his 2006 figures are probably more accurate looking ahead to the upcoming season. In '06, Davis posted a K/9 of 7.0 (compared to 8.4 the previous year). Those are still solid numbers and with a Fantistics' forecast of 177 K's for this year, you can expect a K/9 of about 7.6. A move to the NL West should fare well for Davis, so expect a slight drop in ERA to about 4.25 and WHIP in the 1.40-range. He'll get you K's but will hurt your WHIP/ERA.
Chipper Jones continues to rest his oblique in the pre-season, but could see some action soon in preparation for opening day. While there hasn't been a ton of negative news about this injury (other than its keeping him from opening day preparation), this injury could be one of those that lingers throughout the season. I would proceed with some caution on this one and have a backup plan if you've already drafted him.
Wouldn't it be great to see someone other than Tim Wakefield throwing a knuckle-ball on a regular basis in the big leagues? Charlie Haeger continues to battle for the 5th spot in the White Sox rotation with Gavin Floyd being his biggest competition right now. While he had a brief cup of coffee with the Sox last season, his minor league totals were a 14-6 record with a 3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, K/9 of 6.9, and a solid 0.48 HR/9. Of course, the knuckle-ball in the south-side Chicago winds could get interesting for Haeger's control, so don't be surprised to see his BB/9 in the 5.0 range (4.1 last season). He's a deep AL-only flier at this point, but if he makes the team, you never know how batters will react to the knuckle-ball.
Opening day at Wrigley Field without Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Who knew? The Cubs continue to stress patience with Wood and Prior. Wood has been sidelined with a strained right triceps muscle and Prior continues to strengthen his right shoulder. While Prior doesn't have any specific injuries yet, his spring training innings total isn't enough to start the regular season (he has logged 3.1 IP in two games and is scheduled to pitch Thursday. So, when the Cubs return to the Windy City, Prior will likely stay in Arizona to continue getting back in game-shape while Wade Miller fills the 5th hole in the rotation.
Ken Griffey is still aiming to start the regular season on-time, even though he has yet to play in a game for the Reds this pre-season. His broken wrist continues to be a concern and the Reds will be making a decision about possible starting him on the DL for the season opener. Once he returns, a move to right-field should help Griffey's longevity for the season and reaching the 30-HR mark again may not be out of the question. For now, draft-him as a 28-HR, 75-RBI guy and hope he can stay healthy. That should make him a 3rd-outfielder and a late-teen round pick in mixed-league drafts.
Fausto Carmona's will start the season in the Indians' starting-5 and is already scheduled to get his first start on April 8th at home. I've written about Carmona's past and his forecast for the future in previous columns. At 23 years of age, Carmona has bounced back nicely from an emotional roller-coaster last year and has explosive stuff that can dominate. He's a risky option to start the season and will probably be replaced by Cliff Lee when he's healthy enough to return.
Chris Iannetta remains the favorite for the starting catcher job in Colorado, but his inexperience will mean some playing time for Yorvit Torrealba as well. It is expected that Torrealba will catch a couple of games a week, leaving Iannetta the majority of the time behind the plate. Until Iannetta's bat starts talking, this should be the situation in Colorado for a couple of months. That will mean total AB for Iannetta below 400 for 2007. His keeper value is solid, but it may be too early to pull the trigger on him for a regular starting fantasy job. He is a guy to keep an your waiver-watch list, especially for long home-stands at Coors' Field.
Joel Zumaya owners held their breath as Todd Jones took a line-drive off his right thigh in yesterday's game. While Jones appears fins for now, Zumaya is the closer-in-waiting and fantasy owners are drafting him hoping to see some save opportunities arise throughout the season. Struggles or injuries to Jones would give Zumaya the chance, so picking him up in later-rounds (in leagues without holds) isn't a bad way to go.
Jason Lane continues to have a great spring. He has banged out 5 HR, driven in 12 RBI and is posting a slugging percentage of .714. Every preseason, a guy like Lane emerges with huge numbers and gives fantasy owners reason to take last-round fliers. While Lane may be that guy this year, don't expect much more than 375 AB and 20 HR from the 30-year-old outfielder.
Bobby Abreu may DH in tonight's game, but the Yankees are in no-rush to push him back before he's ready. His strained right oblique could keep him from starting opening day (even though he insists he'll be ready). Abreu's drop in power production over the last couple of years has also dropped him in drafts to an ADP of 3.1. If healthy, Abreu can be expected to be a 20-HR, 100-run, 100-RBI, 30-SB fantasy guy.
