Marlins Closer: The Fish still have not named a closer. There are some rumblings about importing Jorge Julio from Arizona, but as of now, it is a battle between four in-house candidates, Kevin Gregg, Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Henry Owens. Gregg went 3-4, with a 4.14 ERA for the Angels last year, but as a reliever his line was, 3.45 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and a 2.7 BB/9, which are closer worthy. Tankersley put up some good numbers last year, 2.85 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 in 41 innings. But there are some warning signs that he might not be ready to close. The reason why his BB/9 of 5.7 did not lead to a high ERA was because of a very fortunate strand rate of 84%. Don't expect that to last. Plus, there is a bias against southpaw closers. Owens' 2006 Double-A numbers look great, a 1.58 ERA, 16.6 K/9, and a 2.3 B/9, until one realizes that he was a 27 year-old pitching to players in their early 20's. Lindstrom also put up impressive numbers in Double-A last year, including a 12.9 K/9, but like Owens, at 26 years of age, he was older than his competition. Both should have to show that they can get major league hitters out in a lesser role before being anointed closer. If you are going to spec, the smart money is on Gregg, as he has the best skill set. However, it would be wise to monitor Tankerley's BB/9, because if he can cut it to under 3.0, he could succeed in the role.
Brad Lidge: Talk up Lidge's rough spring of 9 ER in 6 innings to your competition and then try to get him at a discount. There was not that much of a difference in Lidge's skill set from his monster 2004 and 2005 seasons to last season's ugly 5.28. His control BB/9 grew from 2.9 to 4.3, but his first-half/second-half split of 5.1/3/6 shows that by the end of the year he was reigning in the walks. What really killed Lidge was the longball. After surrendering just 5 in 2005, Lidge let up 10 in 2006. Since Lidge is not a fly ball pitcher and the difference in his 2005 to 2006 fly ball rate was just 3%, one would assume some bad luck was at play. K/9's of 12.5 at the major league level do know grow on trees, there is still a major talent here.
Joe Borowski: After going through a few first-time closers after trading Bob Wickman last year, Cleveland brought in an experienced one in Borowski. Does by Borowski still have the skills to close? A 2006 K/9 of 8.3 and BB/9 of 4.3 are borderline. A 50% fly ball rate is high, but it didn't seem to hurt him in a pitcher's park like Florida. Jacobs Field is even stingier on home runs, so that should help. Just don't be surprised if you see a few walk-off home runs in some of the smaller AL parks. There are better skill sets to chase for a closer.
Gabe Gross: Gross finally made his spring training debut on Wednesday. He had been nursing a strained hamstring. While the layoff will almost certainly hurt his chance for playing time early in the year, there is an interesting skill set here. He made some nice strides in his batting eye in the second-half of last season from .46 to .72. A low contact rate will keep a lid on his batting average, but the 24 extra-base hits in 208 AB show that there is legitimate power. Lowering his fly ball rate from 49% in 2005 to 42% in 2006 and being at the magic age of 27 could lead to a power breakout this season. At worst, he should see a good amount of at-bats against righties, who he hits well. A small investment could pay big dividends.
Darin Erstad: It looks like a hot spring from Erstad has earned him the starting center field job for the White Sox. At this point, Erstad is basically a singles hitter with declining speed. With his contact rate declining from 89% in 2002 to 82% in 2005 and 81% in limited action last year and a subpar batting eye, he may need a lucky BHIP% just to help you in batting average.
J.P. Howell: Howell is in a four-man battle for the 5th starter spot with the Devil Rays. If he becomes the man, there is an interesting skill set that bears watching. In 23 major league starts his numbers have been uninspiring. But in the minor leagues, he has shown the ability to be a groundball/strikeout pitcher, which is the most optimal skill set for a pitcher. Could be someone to tuck away on reserve lists.
Jamie Shields: Shields, who had an inconsistent debut last year, is having a fine spring with 1 ER, 8 K's, and 2 BB's in 7 innings. Part of Shield's inconsistency last year can be attributed to an unlucky .324 BHIP%. However, a 7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a G/F of 1.26 point to some nice upside. His 4.84 ERA may scare some off, but that should just create a buying opportunity.
Robinson Tejeda: The right-hander, who is slated to be the fourth starter with Rangers, was touched up yesterday for 5 runs, 2 earned, in 2.2 innings. As a fly ball pitcher, 45% last year, in a park that plays strong for left-handed power, there could be some trouble looming ahead for him.
Mark Teahen: With Alex Gordan's hot spring, it looks like the move to right field for Teahen in permanent. A look at Teahen's first-half/second-half splits reveals some series growth in many areas, HR: 7/11, RBIs: 29/40, SB: 3/7, batting eye: .36/.59, contact rate 77%/80%, and average .260/.318. A spring training performance of 10 for 26, with 2 of those hits being home runs, shows that he is having no ill effects for off-season shoulder surgery. Throw in that he will still be 3B eligible in most fantasy leagues and he makes an attractive option in all fantasy formats.
Julian Tavarez: According to some sources, Tavarez is the leading candidate to become the Red Sox closer. Tavarez has struggled with his control this spring with 6 walks and 3 hit batsmen in 9.2 IP. This is a continuation of last year when his BB/9 was a too high 4.0. Plus he doesn't have a high enough K/9, 5.1 last year, to bail him out of control problems. A groundball pitcher like him, 57% rate last year, is better suited for certain situations rather than as a closer.
Mark Buehrle: Is Mark Buehrle a bounce-back candidate. Everything seemed great in 2005 when he went 16-8 with a 3.12 ERA., but last year he declined to 12-13 with 4.99 ERA. This spring he has been bombed for 11 ER in 9 innings. It is hard to get excited about a bounce-back when looking at his underlying numbers. His K/9 is in a three-year downtrend, 6.1/5.7/4.3 and fly ball rate in a three-year uptrend 32%/33%/37%. Not a good combination and it showed last year as he allowed a career-high 36 home runs. There are a lot of innings on his 28 year-old arm and last year could be just the beginning. Let someone else pay for that kind of risk.
Ian Snell: Those looking for a breakout starting pitcher candidate may want to start paying attention to Ian Snell, who has looked great this spring with 4hits, 3 ER, 13 K's, and 3 BB's in 11 innings. Snell showed great year-to-year growth with a rising K/9 7.1/8.2 and rising GB% 37%/43%. He even showed great in-season growth with first-half/second-half K/9 splits of 7.1/9.1. The only thing holding him back is a slightly elevated BB/9, 3.6 last year. If he can get that under 3.0, there will be some major upside.
JJ Putz: Putz's elbow tightened after throwing a bullpen session yesterday. More news about it is supposed to come out today. This is a situation that needs to be monitored because Putz's 2006 line of 36 saves, 2.30 ERA, 12.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 51% GB% put him in the elite category of closers.
