Player Projections Blog- March 15th

Chad "Don't Call Me Barbara"Billingsley continues to be the front-runner to fill that last coveted spot in the Dodgers rotation. However, despite a solid spring of 6.3 IP without an earned run, manager Grady Little has guaranteed the 22-year-old a spot in the bullpen to start the season. This is definitely a fantasy value dropper in the short-term, but don't be surprised to see Billingsley emerge as a starter as the year progresses. He was 7-4 in 16 starts last year with a 3.8 ERA. WHIP and BAA were quite high at 1.67 and .272, respectively, but its obvious he still has some learning to do. The bullpen may be a good move for his career long-term. If you've already drafted him (average draft position in the 18th round in typical mixed leagues), its time to find a replacement.

The DH situation is getting ugly in Baltimore. With manager Sam Perlozzo announcing Jay Payton as his #1 left-fielder, Jay Gibbons becomes the odd-man out and will probably be faced with splitting DH time with Kevin Millar. Gibbons' value was mostly in AL-only leagues anyway (had he actually been a starter).

Scott Podsednik was back in action on Wednesday since recovering from sports hernia surgery back in January. He was 3-for-4 with 2 runs scored and a stolen base. The good news is that he ran really well on the base paths and showed no signs of discomfort on his stolen base attempt. Pods' erratic performances the last four years have kept fantasy owners from drafting him until the mid-teen rounds. He only hit .261 last season, but still managed to swipe 40 bases for the 5th consecutive year. We have him doing the same this year with a slight improvement in average and an FPI of 0.65. He's basically your stolen base / run guy with a little upside potential if he can ever re-create his 2003 season again. He still may not be ready for opening day, but he isn't far off.

If I could guarantee you 200+ innings pitches, 15 wins, a K/9 of about 5.0 and an ERA just over 4.00, would you take it? Well, if you've been playing fantasy baseball long enough, your answer is probably "depends on who it is..." Good answer. These are the numbers of Jake Westbrook and he's consistently put up these modest stats over the last three years, averaging 213 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, a 4.86 K/9, and a HR/9 less than 1.0. From a quality start perspective, we have him forecasted to hurl 19 of them with a QS success rate of 58%. He'll likely be a waiver-wire pick-up throughout the year, but not a spot-start against the right teams.

Chris Iannetta continues to tear the cover off the ball in spring training. With three more hits yesterday, he's now 6-for-17 (.353). With Javy Lopez out of the Colorado picture, Iannetta will certainly be the go-to guy behind the plate. As mentioned in the catcher's profile from last week, Iannetta has plenty of upside for a rookie, especially playing in Coors' Field. His minor league numbers last year were certainly impressive, hitting .336 with 14 HR in 307 AB, .996 OPS, and a 0.84 FPI before being called up to the big leagues in late August. If you wait on catchers and you find yourself in the 20th round without a catcher, grab Iannetta. His auction value is about $3.

Eric Byrnes hit an opposite field HR off of Wade Miller in yesterday's game and the news posting below indicates all of his 26 HR last year were pulled. For a 25-HR guy, that's certainly a feat, but it does explain his volatile average and a tendency to get hot and then go into deep slumps. Let's look at last year for an example. After hitting .364 in May with 8 HR and 16 RBI, Byrnes followed it up in June with a .238 average and 3 HR. He then really cooled-off toward the end of the year with two consecutive months hitting under .250. Previous years show similar trends for the 31-year-old outfielder. Taking a look at the Fantistics' draft-software consistency factor helps support the claim. The "Consistency Factor" defined as a player's weekly consistency in producing quality production measured by FPI - was 36 (on a scale of 1 to 100) for Byrnes last year with a 3-year average of 36 as well. As a point of reference, other mid-teen OF draft picks like Gary Matthews Jr. had a 57 in 2006 and Coco Crisp had a 3-year average of 48. Most of the top-round OF picks are 75+ in consistency week-to-week. In summary, don't just look at total forecasted numbers. On the surface, Byrnes' 24 HR, 74 RBI, 24 SB is solid for a later round pick, but his consistency (especially in head-to-head leagues) could cause some frustration.

Akinori Iwamura's arrival in the U.S. has been fairly quiet given the coverage of Japanese pitcher Dice-K (and even Kei Igawa). But Iwamura could put up some solid numbers for Tampa Bay and is forecasted to hit 21 HR, drive-in 76 RBI, score 71 runs, and hit about .275. I definitely puts him on the map in AL-only leagues and could be a solid back-up in case you have an injury prone third basemen (Glaus, Rolen, Chipper, etc). One concern is that he's already claimed that he's "tired"in spring training action and is only 1-for-20 (ouch) since arriving on U.S. soil. Not sure what the "tired"thing is all about, but he's a better hitter than 1-for-20.

Greg Maddux will start against his former team on Saturday. Ah yes, the marquee name that everyone recognizes but is too afraid to pull the trigger in fantasy drafts. At 40-years old, how do you know what you're getting out of the hall of famer? Well, there may be that one sentimental fantasy player in your league that drafts him unreasonably high, making it an easy choice on your part. If that's not the case, his average draft position (ADP) is about 20. Another 200+ IP season is not out of the question for Maddux and with friendly Petco field protecting 400-foot flyballs, we expect his ERA to drop to 4.02 from his previous to seasons of 4.24 in 2005 and 4.20 in 2006. 15-wins is a reasonable forecast with 100+ strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP.

Khalil Greene is definitely making a splash in spring training, driving in 9 RBI's on 3 HR. Don't place too much value on these numbers - Greene has been relatively consistent at getting hurt, keeping his AB total under 500 and having a mediocre average at best. In fact, his 3-year average (2004-through-2006) has been 444 AB, 114 hits, .257 average, .752 OPS, and an FPI of 0.55. He's a late-round SS flyer who will probably hit .270 this season with the possibility of increasing his HR production to the 20-HR mark if he stays healthy and can log the AB.

The pitching situation in Philadelphia leaves Jon Lieber in limbo. The Phillies have six starting pitchers (Lieber included) and have an empty spot in the bullpen. While pre-spring training rumors had Lieber moving to the bullpen, a trade is the more likely scenario. He's a risky pick and you should probably pass on drafting him in mixed league formats, but he could prove a valuable starter and a decent pick-up if he gets traded to the right team. The Blue Jays have been the rumored team around some baseball-circles, but the Phillies are asking for Alex Rios (which isn't going to happen - sorry Phillie fans).

Want to talk Rockies pitching? Ugh. For you NL-only guys, the #5 spot in the rotation could be solved soon. While Byung-Hyun Kim and Josh Fogg are competing for the role, Colorado is considering a trade that would send Kim packing and would put Fogg as the #5.

The Marlins closer situation is getting interested. Florida scouts have been checking-out Diamondbacks pitcher Jorge Julio as a possible candidate to beef-up the bullpen. Taylor Tankersley was the initial favorite to win the closer role, but recent shoulder inflammation has kept him side-lined and has given hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens a shot at the role. A move that sends Julio to southern Florida would probably solve the problem. Definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

This is the time of the pre-season when players starting getting sent down to the minors again and #5 spots of the rotation begin to be secured. Russ Ortiz has basically secured his role as the Giants #5. Manager Bruce Bochy is very impressed with Ortiz's performance this spring and said he could even see Ortiz as a #3 or #4 after Barry Zito and Matt Cain. I have serious doubts Ortiz is anything but a #5. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ortiz struggle throughout the year and make a move to the bullpen to make room for phenom prospect Tim Lincecum at some point during the season.

The Philip Hughes era in NY, as expected, will not begin on opening day 2007. The Yankees officially reassigned him, along with various other prospects, to minor-league camp. As one of the highest touted prospects in baseball, Hughes will see some major league action throughout the season (especially if the injury-bug plagues the Yankees), but Hughes can't be counted-on to produce significant fantasy numbers this year. Obviously, keeper leagues should continue to clear a spot for him.