Here are some press notes from the team beat writers this morning:
Ken Griffey Jr. still on the mend
Griffey Jr., Ken - Cin/OF: According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, "Ken Griffey Jr. and Gary Majewski remain the only Reds players not fully participating in drills."
Majewski is the dark horse favorite to take over the closers job in Cincinnati
Majewski, Gary - Cin/RP: According to the Cincinnati
Enquirer, "Gary Majewski long-tossed off flat ground Monday, but the
relief pitcher didn't know when his throwing program would include mound
work. The Reds have held Majewski off the mound while he strengthens his
shoulder. "I've been throwing farther and farther and a little bit more,"
Majewski said. "The main thing is it's getting better without any kind of
medication."
Let the Brain Anderson / Darin Erstad battle
begin
White Sox - ChA/T: The Arlington Daily Herald reports
that "The race for the White Sox' starting center field job officially
began in Monday's intrasquad game. Veteran Darin Erstad started in center
for one side, second-year man Brian Anderson for the other. If the rest of
the spring plays out like the practice game, it is going to be an
interesting battle. Erstad, limited to 40 games with the Los Angeles
Angles last season by a bone spur in his right ankle, doubled and scored
in his first at-bat and popped out in the next one. Anderson, who batted
.225 in his rookie season, singled in his first 2 at-bats and grounded
out. Given Erstad's impressive track record with the Angels, he figures to
get the bulk of the playing time in center if healthy. But manager Ozzie
Guillen said the Sox are going to be a much better if Anderson bounces
back from a forgettable 2006."
Juan Uribe came to camp in shape
Uribe, Juan - ChA/SS: As the Chicago Sun-Times
reports, "Not only did shortstop Juan Uribe heed Guillen's warnings about
showing up to camp in shape, he also looked like the Uribe of 2005 in the
intrasquad game. Uribe doubled in his first at-bat and looked sharp
turning the double play."
Victor Zambrano expected back around mid season
Zambrano, Victor - Tor/P: The Toronto Star reports
that "Free-agent signee Victor Zambrano, who is returning from shoulder
surgery and not expected to start a big-league game until June or July,
will throw in today's intrasquad game, according to Jays manager John
Gibbons."
Sammy Sosa expected to make the Rangers out of
camp
Sosa, Sammy - Tex/OF: According to the Fort Worth
Star-Telegram, "Manager Ron Washington said he expects Sammy Sosa, above,
to make the team. "I have no doubt," Washington said. "I'm not saying
anyone else has no doubt, but Ron Washington's got no doubt."
Gagne on the road to recovery
Gagne, Eric - Tex/RP: As the Fort Worth Star-Telegram
reports, "Closer Eric Gagné threw a bullpen session Monday after telling
pitching coach Mark Connor that he felt good enough to throw off a mound
instead of on flat ground. Connor said there is no set schedule for Gagné,
who had back surgery last summer and is trying to regain his arm
strength."
The Rick Ankiel watch begins
Cardinals - StL/T: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch
reports that "A year ago, the Cardinals' friendly scrimmage with its
improvised rules gave Rick Ankiel vicious twist to a career losing
velocity. Back in the outfield Monday for this spring's coaches' game,
Ankiel showed proficiency in what his career may be doing: Going the other
way. Ankiel drove one home run to left field and nearly hit two others on
the same day that manager Tony La Russa drew a clear distinction between
Ankiel and several other outfielders also ticketed for the minor leagues.
The one-time pitching phenom, who is two years into reinventing himself as
a hitter, will get "a lot of 1 o'clock experience" this spring, La Russa
said. That's Grapefruit League talk for starts in big-league games.
"That's the plan," La Russa said, referring to injuries to Jim Edmonds and
Juan Encarnacion."
Khalil Greene still recovering from his broken
finger
Greene, Khalil - SD/SS: As the North County Times
reports, "SS Khalil Greene said his left middle finger continues to
improve as temperatures in Peoria rise. "The warmer it gets, the better it
feels," Greene said."
Geoff Jenkins in San Diego?
Jenkins, Geoff - Mil/OF: According to the North
County Times, "General manager Kevin Towers said all is quiet on the
Padres' trade front. He dismissed a published report that the team is
interested in Milwaukee outfielder Geoff Jenkins, saying he hasn't spoken
with Brewers officials in four months. "Rumors are usually just that --
rumors," Towers said. "Ninety-five percent of them are untrue."
Todd Walker could be a Free Agent shortly
Walker, Todd - SD/3B: The San Diego Union-Tribune
reports that "Player agents and major league executives said that if the
Padres release utility man Todd Walker, they wouldn't be surprised to see
the players' union file a grievance. The Padres would owe the utility man
$658,000 of his $3.95 million arbitration-set salary if they release him
by March 15. Walker is a career .289 hitter whose best position is second
base, where Marcus Giles is the projected starter and Geoff Blum is among
the backups. At third base, the Padres have rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff,
Russell Branyan and Blum. A left-handed hitter, Walker also has played
first, but the starter there, Adrian Gonzalez, also is left-handed."
Will the Pirates find room for a hitter with
talent?
Doumit, Ryan - Pit/1B: As the Pittsburgh Post Gazette
reports, "Tracy praised Ryan Doumit for working at three positions this
spring training, including lengthy bullpen sessions as a catcher: "Doumit's
work ethic out here this spring thus far has been ... it can't help but
grab your attention."
Can Pat Burrell stay healthy
Burrell, Pat - Phi/OF: According to the Philadelphia
Inquirer & Daily News, "Pat Burrell said his right foot, which hindered
him at times last season, has been fine after a week in camp. Burrell had
surgery on the foot in October 2005, but the foot bothered him while
running the bases during his first Grapefruit League game last year."
Jose Reyes: swinging for the fences this year?
Reyes, Jose - NYN/SS: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that "Jose Reyes dodged questions about becoming more of a home run hitter, but the evidence was crystal clear. Reyes blasted a three-run shot to right-center field in the fourth inning of the team's intrasquad game, but said he has no plans of making that dimension a priority of his game. "I'm just trying to hit the ball in the gaps," Reyes said. "Triple, it's an exciting play for me. I don't hit too many home runs. I know last year I hit 19, but it's not part of my game." Reyes did admit that he has added strength after the off-season, but said he wants to hit more triples, rather than home runs."
Bobby Abreu out for 2 weeks with oblique strain
Abreu, Bobby - NYA/OF: According to the Arizona
Republic, "Yankees right fielder Bobby Abreu is expected to miss at least
two weeks after straining his right oblique during batting practice
Monday, an injury General Manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Torre said
won't cause the team to make a new push for Bernie Williams to report. ...
Williams rejected the Yankees' offer of a minor league contract and spring
training invite."
The Yankees align rotation
Yankees - NYA/T: The New York Post reports that "Torre
said don't read into the way he lined up the first five starters for the
exhibition season that starts Thursday. Chien-Ming Wang faces the Twins in
the opener, Andy Pettitte goes Friday against the Devil Rays, Mike Mussina
draws the Pirates Saturday, Pavano hurls Sunday and Kei Igawa opposes the
Tigers Monday. Asked if that would be the way he would start the season,
Torre said, "Check it out and see." While Wang is the favorite to land the
opening-day nod, Torre didn't discount Pettitte and Mussina from drawing
the honored assignment against the Twins at Yankee Stadium on April 2."
Lew Ford seeks MRI for ailing knee
Ford, Lew - Min/OF: As the Minneapolis Star-Tribune
reports, "Outfielder Lew Ford went for an MRI on his right knee after
feeling some pain while throwing in the outfield. Ford had surgery in
January on his left knee, so the Twins are wondering if Ford was
overcompensating with his right."
Prized Prospect Garza receives CAT scan for
ailing neck
Garza, Matt - Min/P: According to the Minneapolis
Star-Tribune, "Twins righthander Matt Garza still had a stiff neck and
headaches after throwing batting practice Saturday, so the club decided to
have him undergo a CAT scan as a precaution. The results should be known
today."
Twins waiting for Ponson
Ponson, Sidney - Min/P: The Minneapolis Star-Tribune
reports that "Although a visa has been approved, Twins righthander Sidney
Ponson might be unable to pitch in a spring training game for nearly two
weeks. Barry Praver, Ponson's agent, confirmed Monday that Ponson's
meeting to obtain his visa is scheduled for March 9 in Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic. That's the day of the Twins' 10th spring training
game. Another game or two could be lost while Ponson, a native of Aruba,
returns to camp. ... The Twins don't appear to be happy that Ponson will
be delayed in earning a spot in the starting rotation. Ponson has signed a
minor league deal but will earn $1 million if he makes the team. ... For
now, Ponson can only pitch in "B" games against mostly minor leaguers. But
Ryan said the only "B" game currently scheduled is for March 5. The
30-year-old Ponson has had alcohol-related incidents in the past and also
punched a judge in Aruba. But he reported to camp in better shape than he
was last year, and his new Twins teammates have reached out to him."
Josh Johnson may not open season with team
Johnson, Josh - Fla/P: According to the Miami Herald,
"Starting pitcher Josh Johnson (sore right biceps) did not try to throw
again Monday. Gonzalez said it's ''doubtful'' he'll be on the Opening Day
roster."
Sheffield not talking
Sheffield, Gary - Det/DH: As the Detroit Free Press
reports, "Tigers slugger Gary Sheffield joined Barry Bonds on Monday among
players who don't plan to cooperate with former Sen. George Mitchell's
steroid investigation. Mitchell has urged players tied to the BALCO drug
scandal to submit to interviews and turn over their medical records, but
Sheffield said he has been advised by the players' association not to
assist in his probe."
Dellucci returns to platoon role
Dellucci, David - Cle/OF: As the Akron Beacon Journal
reports, "David Dellucci isn't Babe Ruth, but he should help shore up the
offense platooning in left field with Jason Michaels.``Dellucci is a
professional hitter,'' Wedge said. ``He has very good command of the
strike zone. He's also tough and has a strong personality. He should be a
very good fit for us.''
Japanese Import Matsusaka working himself in
slowly
Matsuzaka, Daisuke - Bos/P: As the Providence Journal
reports, "In his second session of live batting practice this spring,
Daisuke Matsuzaka tested himself against a better class of hitters. Two
days after facing a trio of minor-leaguers, Matsuzaka threw BP to the
heart of the Red Sox batting order, facing David Ortiz and newly arrived
Manny Ramirez along with Wily Mo Pena, Julio Logo, Alex Ochoa, Dustin
Pedroia and Alex Cora. Matsuzaka threw for 12 minutes, delivering just
over 50 pitches to the Sox hitters. The vast majority of the pitchers were
taken by the veteran hitters, with just a few balls hit out of the
infield. ... Matsuzaka estimated that he was throwing at about "70-80
percent"of his true velocity. His agent, Scott Boras, earlier this month
said Matsuzaka would be relying more on his two-seam fastball, but the
pitcher said yesterday that the pitch was being implemented gradually. ...
Matsuzaka will make his Grapefruit League debut Friday night against
Boston College."
Orioles announce tentative regular season lineup
Orioles - Bal/T: According to the Washington Post,
"Orioles Manager Sam Perlozzo's preliminary lineup for the season: Brian
Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada, Aubrey Huff, Ramon
Hernandez, Jay Gibbons, Kevin Millar and Corey Patterson/Jay Payton. "That
could change a little bit from 5 and 6 depending on who's pitching and the
success rate of the guys with the matchups," Perlozzo said."
Braves Kelly Johnson ready to take on Second Base
Johnson, Kelly - Atl/2B: The Macon Telegraph reports
that "Wednesday will present the first opportunity for Kelly Johnson to
play second in a game. About time, says the hopeful starter at the
position. "I can't believe how long the wait's felt," said Johnson, who
had elbow surgery last year and then began working to learn the new
position. Cox said Johnson's as ready as he'll ever be for some live
grounders. ... Johnson has been working with former Braves second baseman
Glenn Hubbard to learn the spot."
Mike Hampton being brought back slowly
Hampton, Mike - Atl/P: As the Macon Telegraph
reports, "After a weekend of deliberation, the Atlanta Braves finally made
public Monday how they'll shape their spring rotation - at least
temporarily. Lefty Mike Hampton is out for now. As expected, the Braves
will skip the 34-year-old, who's being brought along slowly after elbow
surgery, for at least his first turn and maybe more. Manager Bobby Cox
said recently that Hampton doesn't need to make all of his spring starts
to be ready for the regular season. Whether he will, though, remains to be
seen. ... It still remains to be seen whether Hampton will return for the
second time through. Cox said Saturday that everyone is still stressing
patience in dealing with Hampton's return. ... Hampton had elbow ligament
replacement surgery in fall 2005. He expected to be fully ready to go by
now, but Hampton and the Braves are choosing to err on the side of caution
rather than deal with potential setbacks. They watched Hampton go on and
off the disabled list virtually all of 2005 before he eventually opted for
surgery."
Randy Johnson has some back soreness following
his last outing
Johnson, Randy - Ari/P: The Arizona Daily Star
reports that "Randy Johnson felt a little sore after throwing off the
mound Monday but said that was to be expected. It was Johnson's second
session off a mound in his comeback from back surgery. He said the
soreness was "the residual effects from the first time out." "My back's a
little stiff, the legs are stiff, arm's stiff," Johnson said.
He first threw off a mound on Friday. Johnson said he threw 35 pitches
Monday, stopping for a break about halfway through. He said he felt much
better in the later portion."
Rolen and LaRussa: kiss and make up
Rolen, Scott - StL/3B: The Arizona Republic reports that "Manager Tony La Russa and third baseman Scott Rolen are talking again, and both agree the rift that began during the 2006 postseason is over. "It's a dead issue," Rolen said. "It's healthy to be a dead issue. Walking around with a wall between you isn't very healthy for any relationship." La Russa said he never had an issue with Rolen, even as their deteriorating relationship was publicized during the Cardinals' World Series run last October. The two shook hands Thursday, with General Manager Walt Jocketty brokering a truce, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Sunday. The split started in late September when Rolen was not in the lineup for a critical game against the Astros. Rolen complained he was being benched."
Pavano escapes serious
injury
Pavano, Carl - NYA/P: As the Arizona Republic reports, "The team announced
that the MRI exam and X-rays taken Sunday on right-hander Carl Pavano's
injured left foot showed only a bone bruise."
Colon expected back in June
Colon, Bartolo - LAA/P: The Arizona Republic reports that "Bartolo
Colon's progress on flat ground puts him on schedule for throwing at least
live batting practice before spring training ends. His return, though,
still would be sometime in May at the earliest, but more likely in June."
Prior on schedule to make his earliest preseason
appearance in several years
Prior, Mark - ChN/P: According to the Arizona
Republic, "Oft-injured pitcher Mark Prior was pushed up to start this
Monday in a spring training game against the Mariners. After the team
worked out Monday, Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Prior would pitch in
Chicago's fifth exhibition game. Only 24 hours earlier, Piniella said the
right-hander would not make an appearance until the second time through
the rotation late next week. Originally, Piniella had planned to start
left-hander Ted Lilly against the Mariners on March 5. Lilly still will
pitch, but he'll follow Prior in the game."
Rich Aurilia to bat in front of Barry Bonds this
year
Aurilia, Rich - SF/1B: The Arizona Republic reports that "Bochy said Rich Aurilia is the "front-runner" to bat third behind Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel."
Saito resting a sore left calf
Saito, Takashi - LAN/RP: According to the Los Angeles
Times, "Although the tender left calf that closer Takashi Saito came into
camp with has not restricted him from participating in drills, he won't
pitch in the first several Grapefruit League games because the Dodgers
want to be cautious. "We don't want him running over to cover first base
or something that first week," Little said."
Jered Weaver could start season on the DL
Weaver, Jered - LAA/P: The Los Angeles Times reports that "Though the chances of Jered Weaver being ready for the regular season narrow with each week he is unable to throw off a mound, the Angels have advised the right-hander not to rush his recovery from biceps tendinitis and not to feel pressured to be ready by opening day. ... Weaver, 11-2 with a 2.56 earned-run average in 19 starts as a rookie last season, remains on a long-toss regimen and is not expected to throw off a mound until next week, at the earliest. With only two scheduled off days in the first 35 days of the season, the Angels will need a full five-man rotation in April, and Scioscia said there is still enough time, barring a setback, for Weaver to open the season in the big leagues. But there's a good chance Weaver will have to remain in Arizona for extended spring training and then make a minor league rehabilitation start or two before joining the Angels."
Deserved Wins
For most fantasy GMs, a pitcher's Win totals are a very critical component of our fantasy success.
One of the first steps in forecasting a pitcher's Win totals is to determine how many Wins the pitcher deserved the previous season.We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts multiplied by a factor of .74. Based on our research, typically a pitcher wins 74% of his Quality Starts (defined as a start where the pitcher has gone at least 6 innings and has given up 3 runs or fewer - a Bill James creation). Using this indicator we can determine whether a pitcher was unfortunate or fortunate in his pitching Win totals. A big determinant of Win totals is frequently centered on the quality of the pitchers team offensive, but this is not always the case as you'll see in the listings below. Depending on the quality of the offensive unit, this could account for a 2-3 wins above or below expectations.
Illustrated below are the pitchers who
were shorted last year (won less than deserved),
| Less Wins than Deserved | |
| Capuano,C. | -8 |
| Seo,J. | -7 |
| Jennings,J. | -6 |
| Peavy,J. | -5 |
| Cook,A. | -4 |
| Lackey,J. | -4 |
| Washburn,J. | -4 |
| Maholm,P. | -4 |
| Escobar,K. | -4 |
| Myers,B. | -4 |
| Oswalt,R. | -4 |
| Lowry,N. | -3 |
| Duke,Z. | -3 |
| Moyer,J. | -3 |
| Schmidt,J. | -3 |
| Arroyo, B. | -3 |
| Willis,D. | -3 |
| Wakefield,T. | -3 |
It's amazing how the law of averages or reversion to the mean has validity. Chris Capuano had 6 more Wins than deserved in 2005, only to see his luck reversed in 2006. As fate would have it, bad luck and lack of run support cost Capuano 8 Wins in 2006. So while we were warning fantasy GMs to avoid Cappy in 2006 (as his value was inflated thanks to more Wins than deserved), we're recommending him in 2007.
Others who are flying lower than deserved in his year's draft include Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Brett Myers, and Roy Oswalt. We're projecting more Wins from these guys as they are better pitchers than their 2006 Win totals indicate.
| More Wins than Deserved | |
| Johnson,Ra. | 7 |
| Madson,R. | 6 |
| Wang,C. | 6 |
| Garland, J. | 5 |
| Trachsel,S. | 5 |
| Liriano,F. | 5 |
| Marquis, J. | 4 |
| Blanton,J. | 4 |
| Penny,B. | 4 |
| Garcia,F. | 4 |
| Verlander,J. | 4 |
| Snell,I. | 4 |
| Loaiza,E. | 4 |
| Wright,Jar. | 4 |
Hip Hip Horay for Run Support: Randy Johnson won 17 games last year with a 5.00 ERA! While Chien Ming Wang won 19 Games in 2006....the common denominator was one of the most potent lineups in the majors. Johnson of course is no longer with the Yankees, and I'd bet the farm that Wang doesn't match or exceed his Win totals from 2006 (19). It's amazing that he's had the success we've witnessed with a K/Inning ratio below .40!
Others who we are weary of include Jon Garland, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny, and Freddie Garcia. Come draft day all are coming in with inflated Win totals from 2006. Leave these guys for the next guy as the goal is to acquire undervalued, not overvalued commodities.
