Player Projections Blog - February 26,2007

Good Day Folks!

Today is the start of our daily 2007 Pre-Season Player Projections Blog. Starting today, through the last day of the Spring season (with the exception of Sundays), we'll be making comments on players and adjusting their valuations within our player projections software. Our aim is to provide you with the most comprehensive and up to date set of information as you prepare for your fantasy draft.

Let's get right to it:

Last year's NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez (PIT) is practicing exclusively at second base this spring. A move that would significantly increase his draft day value as the 2nd base position is one of the weakest positions this year. For most, Sanchez already qualifies at second base as he played 23 games there last year. Sanchez is expected to bat 2nd or 3rd in the order this year. From a projections standpoint, we're expecting to see a decline in Freddie's batting average this year as his .295 Singles Rate of 2006 was well above his norm (.252). Additionally his second half performance Slugging % of .435, will likely see him over priced come draft day. Sanchez has an Average Draft Position of 11.1.

If Sanchez does in fact move to second base, this means that Jose Bautista will likely move to 3B with Jose Castillo getting squeezed out. Keep an eye on Xavier Nady, who is undergoing tests to determine if he had Crohn's disease. If he does, it could mean a 20-25% reduction in playing time.

Jason Lane / Luke Scott / Richard Hidalgo are all vying for the same starting job in Houston this year. If you're in an early draft, place your chips on Luke Scott as he has the right makeup to become a star player. Luke Scott's Discipline (EYE  .71) and Dominance (SLUG .621) trounce that of Jason Lane and Hidalgo is 3 years past any usefulness.

Randy Johnson is throwing off the mound for the first time after the back surgery he had in October. Barring any setbacks, Johnson could be ready to open the season. Although we expect his ERA to improve greatly from last season's 5.00 debacle, we must remain mindful that Johnson is 43 and clearly on the downward slope of his production cycle. That said, 11-12 Wins with a 1.20 WHIP/ 4.20 ERA split could still be within Johnson's range.

Josh Johnson has yet to throw off the mound, he's experiencing some general soreness in his right arm....which isn't a reason for concern just yet.  For those wondering Johnson's workload in 2006 (157 IP) wasn't much more than his 2005 load (151 IP). Johnson was in the upper 20 percentile based on quality starts in 2006, however his production fell by 24% in the second half (as measured by FPI). We're projecting a slight rise in his WHIP (1.34)  and ERA (3.62) as the sophomore monster is prime to make his mark here.

According to the Boston Herald's Jeff Horrgan, David Ortiz came into Camp this weekend looking as fit as he's ever looked. Ortiz said his weight (believed to be in the 235-245-pound range) hasn't changed but it is distributed differently this year after working with personal trainers in Boston and the Dominican Republic. "It feels good, even a little more powerful,"Ortiz said of his swing. Although his lack of position eligibility hurts him in most leagues, having him drop into the second round is a win-win situation.

It appears that Kerry Wood has resided to pitching out of the bullpen this year. Odds are that he'll become the team's full time closer by May. He threw 27 pitches off the mound this weekend, and most where encouraged by the outing.  If healthy (and that's a big if), Wood could become a dominant closer. His 3 year K/Inning ratio (1.14) heading into 2006 was among the best in the majors...and this usually bodes well as a key qualification for the closer position.

Wade Miller will never be the dominant starter we saw a glimpse of earlier in the decade. The team is publicly acknowledging that his 2005 surgery has robbed 10 MPH off his fastball which is now in the mid 80s.

The St. Petersburg Times is reporting: The line score on LHP Scott Kazmir's first batting practice session of the spring was 39 pitches, 10 minutes and 0 worries. The ace starter continued his comeback from the shoulder problem that sidelined him last season, feeling strong and looking sharp while throwing four-seam fastballs, changeups and a few sliders...If Kazmir remains pain free he's entering a possible breakout season.  His Dominance (K/I ratio 1.08) and Command Ratios (WHIP) could make him one of the top pitchers in 2007. Boy, it sure seemed like a good trade when the Mets traded him for Victor Zambrano a few years ago.

Here are some additional press notes from the team beat writers this morning:

Mark Prior is once again being cuddled as the Spring gets underway

Prior, Mark - ChN/P: The Arlington Daily Herald reports that "Prior threw live batting practice early in the morning, throwing 35 pitches to nonroster men Koyie Hill and Jake Fox. He reported no problems and said he'll be ready for the start of the Cactus League season. However, Piniella and pitching coach Larry Rothschild don't plan to use Prior until the team is at least five games through the exhibition season. "Prior threw early today, and talking to Larry Rothschild, he took a nice step forward,"Piniella said. "He cut some balls loose. He felt good after the workout was over. No pain. No discomfort. It's good news when we keep these guys going forward." Rothschild said Prior will throw another batting practice Tuesday and that Prior's velocity is "getting close"to being 100 percent. "He's not at full velocity from what we've seen a couple years ago, but it's definitely improving,"Rothschild said. When asked if Prior would be ready for the season, Rothschild said: "I have no indication that he won't be."

Soriano getting a hold of Centerfield

Soriano, Alfonso - ChN/OF: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that "Piniella has been impressed with how quickly Alfonso Soriano seems to be picking up center field as he tries to make the switch from left after only one season of outfield experience. ''Soriano's starting to really get some nice jumps in center field,'' Piniella said. ''He's been working hard, getting some balls off the bat.'' Soriano said he already feels almost as comfortable in center as he does in left."

Helton bulked up this off-season

Helton, Todd - Col/1B: According to the Denver Post, "Helton, mindful of critics and eager to rejuvenate his career, underwent a radical physical transformation, bulking up from his sickness-induced 200 pounds to approximately 230. Helton wouldn't divulge his exact weight, but admitted it was higher than 225.  "I feel stronger, but it hasn't translated on the field yet because I am not swinging with 100 percent effort," Helton said. "I am not worried about spring training. Everything is geared for the season."  In years past, Helton has played at about 215 pounds. He dropped 15 pounds last year after contracting a stomach virus that forced him into a hospital and onto the disabled list.  Helton displayed his new strength during batting practice Sunday, repeatedly launching home runs over the right-field fence. He finished with cardio work, wearing an undershirt with cut sleeves that revealed ripped biceps. Helton has been careful about putting on pounds as a concession to a back injury he has dealt with since 2002. This offseason, he practiced yoga to increase flexibility."

Guzman getting a look

Guzman, Joel - TB/3B: As the Tampa Tribune reports, "Joel Guzman began his professional career as a shortstop, but rapidly outgrew the position.  Now listed at 6-foot-6, 252 pounds, he came to his first Rays spring training billed mainly as a first baseman. That changed quickly when Maddon saw him on the field. ... Guzman probably will get work at first and third base, along with perhaps left and right field. He has played the corner outfield spots before."

Upton: from prized prospect to Super Utility

Upton, B.J. - TB/3B: According to the St. Petersburg Times, "After spending much of his time at second base, B.J. Upton will get some extra work today in the outfield as the Rays explore making him a super utilityman. INF Brendan Harris will, too."

Look out: Carpenter adds a new pitch to his repertoire

Carpenter, Chris - StL/P: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that "Chris Carpenter kicked at a ball bag, muttered to himself and seemed generally displeased with a lack of command in Sunday afternoon's session against hitters. But looks, he insisted, were deceiving. Carpenter, set to make his exhibition debut Thursday at Port St. Lucie against the New York Mets, continued to dust off a changeup that he all but put down after signing with the Cardinals following the 2002 season. Armed with three quality pitches when he won the league's 2005 Cy Young Award, he says he has finally gotten back in touch with his old friend. "I like it. I think it can be a devastating pitch if I get good with it," he said. Facing three lefthanded hitters plus So Taguchi and Preston Wilson on Sunday, Carpenter showed off the changeup against Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Skip Schumaker. ... Carpenter said he located his fastball better Sunday than he had previously this spring and that he was pleased with the bite on his two-seam fastball. Without a changeup, Carpenter is 51-18 with a 3.10 ERA in three seasons with the Cardinals."

Lincoln slowly moving on track

Lincoln, Brad - Pit/P: As the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports, "Starter Brad Lincoln, the Pirates' No. 1 draft pick last summer shelved by elbow discomfort, said he has not been given a timetable to begin a throwing program. The prognosis given last week was two to four weeks, so this makes the latter more likely."

Mets counting on Pelfrey

Pelfrey, Mike - NYN/P: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that "With Oliver Perez, Tom Glavine and Chan Ho Park each starting one of the Mets' first three exhibition games, Mike Pelfrey threw some live batting practice yesterday and, for the first time all spring, had trouble finding the plate. He even hit a batter during his 30-pitch outing. ... Pelfrey, who appeared in four games for the Mets last season but has pitched just eight innings at the Triple-A level, has junked his breaking ball and is working on a slider.  Right now, the pitcher and his new pitch are going through a bit of a feeling out process but he said he feels good about making the switch. ... Pelfrey is scheduled to make his first start of the spring Saturday in Fort Lauderdale against the Baltimore Orioles."

Yankees to Damon: Lose the belly fat

Damon, Johnny - NYA/OF: According to the New York Post, "Johnny Damon is expected to rejoin the Yankees today at Legends Field. With the Yankees' permission, Damon missed workouts Saturday and Sunday for personal reasons. It's not believed to have anything to do with infant daughter Devon Rose, who was born in early January. "He will be here in a day or so,'' Joe Torre said of his center fielder and leadoff hitter who is using spring training to shed pounds after he reported heavier than the Yankees wanted him. Damon said he was five pounds over the 212 limit, with most of it in his belly."

Kubel was once a top prospect, sleeper with lots of upside

Kubel, Jason - Min/DH: As the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports, "Jason Kubel hit a home run Sunday, and while it was only batting practice, and the pitcher -- Kevin Slowey -- has yet to reach the majors, it was another reminder for the Twins of Kubel's potential impact this season. ... Kubel, 24, hit just .241 with eight home runs last season, but he helped turn the team around in June, batting .333 with five home runs and 16 RBI that month. Gardenhire said he has yet to see Kubel run "all-out," so that test will begin once the games begin. The Twins scrimmage Concordia (St. Paul) on Tuesday and then open their Grapefruit League schedule on Wednesday against Boston."

Which Hernandez will show up this year?

Hernandez, Orlando - NYN/P: The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that "New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing Tuesday. Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine."

Weeks need to cut down on the Ks and take a few more walks

Weeks, Rickie - Mil/2B: According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Yost has played around with different lineup possibilities but each one has Rickie Weeks batting leadoff. Weeks eventually settled into the top spot last season and was starting to take off when he injured his wrist and missed the final two months. ... Before it became evident that Corey Koskie would not be ready for the start of camp because of the lingering effects of post-concussion syndrome, Yost was considering him for the second spot in the order. If third base becomes a platoon of Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino, they'll probably share the No. 2 spot in the lineup as well."

Brewers taking it slow with Cordero

Cordero, Francisco - Mil/RP: As the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports, "Francisco Cordero got off to such a poor start with Texas last year that he lost his closer's job a month into the season. The Milwaukee Brewers have a plan in the works to avoid a repeat of those struggles. They are taking it slow with the big right-hander in camp, to the point of withholding him from intrasquad games today and Tuesday. "We don't want to have what happened to him last year happen again," manager Ned Yost said. "He rushed to play in the World Baseball Classic. He really tried to push it. We're just kind of picking our days (for him to throw).  "He's not sore, he's not hurt, but he's one of the main guys we want to make sure is ready on April 1." ... Cordero posted an 11.45 earned run average in his first 12 outings with the Rangers in '06 and was replaced as closer by Akinori Otsuka. He later was sent to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee trade and took over as closer when Derrick Turnbow melted down, converting 16 of 18 save opportunities."

Lawrence in Colorado - Steer Clear

Lawrence, Brian - Col/P: The Denver Post reports that "Brian Lawrence, recovering from shoulder surgery, is expected to pitch in a B-game either next Monday or March 8."

A Sullivan / Finley platoon in Colorado?

Sullivan, Cory - Col/OF: As the Denver Post reports, "Center fielder Cory Sullivan received a threat to his roster spot with the addition of Steve Finley, but remained unfazed.

A world of potential for Hansen....if healthy

Hansen, Craig - Bos/RP: The Providence Journal reports that "Right-hander Craig Hansen missed his third straight workout because of lower back stiffness, but it's possible he could be cleared to return today. He's behind the other pitchers, each of whom has thrown at least one batting practice session. Pitching coach John Farrell said Hansen would have to have a solid bullpen session before being allowed to throw BP."

Guzman on the mend

Guzman, Cristian - Was/SS: The Washington Post reports that "Shortstop Cristian Guzman took the day off from throwing, part of the plan to bring him back slowly from shoulder surgery. "We want him ready Opening Day, and I think he will be," General Manager Jim Bowden said."

Patterson hopes to become the staff ace once again

Patterson, John - Was/P: The Washington Post reports that "John Patterson is set to start the second game Saturday. Starters will throw two innings or 45 pitches, whichever comes first."

Hampton has a long road back

Hampton, Mike - Atl/P: According to the Macon Telegraph, "Mike Hampton reported some normal soreness Sunday, a day after throwing off the mound for the second time this spring. The left-hander, coming off major elbow surgery that kept him out all of last season, hopes to throw some breaking pitches during his next stint on Tuesday." I've still got a ways to go," Hampton said. "I'm battling it. It seems to be getting a little better here and there." He won't be ready for the start of Grapefruit League games on Thursday, but hopes to be far enough along to make the 25-man roster for opening day."

Pavano: another year, another injury

Pavano, Carl - NYA/P: The Arizona Republic reports that "Right-hander Carl Pavano had an MRI and X-rays taken on his injured left foot. The team didn't immediately release the results, but Pavano said afterward that he wasn't concerned. "Just for precaution," Pavano said. "It's feeling better than it did. I'm not really too alarmed. There's no bruising or anything. It's just stiff."

Weaver has a case of bicep tendinitis, but looks good

Weaver, Jered - LAA/P: The Los Angeles Times reports that "Jered Weaver, who has been slowed this spring by a case of biceps tendinitis, played long toss with Colon on Sunday, and Scioscia said both pitchers looked "excellent." But Weaver, who hoped to throw from a mound early this week, has been stuck at 120 feet for almost a week now, and Scioscia said he probably wouldn't throw from a mound until next week, at the earliest. Like Colon, Weaver must stretch out to 160 to 180 feet before taking the mound."

Colon could be ready by May

Colon, Bartolo - LAA/P: According to the Los Angeles Times, "Bartolo Colon's rehabilitation from a rotator-cuff tear is proceeding on schedule - the Angels' schedule, not Colon's. The 2005 American League Cy Young Award winner entered camp hoping to be ready to open the season, but Manager Mike Scioscia said Sunday that it's "unlikely" Colon will pitch in a Cactus League game. There is a chance the right-hander will pitch in the controlled environment of a minor league exhibition here in March, though, and that would give the right-hander a chance of returning to the Angels by late May."

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