The following analysis is based strictly on the 3 year trend performance of each player. Although the statistical significance of the 3 consecutive year trending players is questionable due to the small sample sizes, you will see that some of the results are overwhelmingly one sided, lending some credence to their relevancy. The production is measured using our Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI). 

Up-Trending Hitters

 Last year, a majority of the "up trending" 3 year players failed to reach the success of their previous season. In fact,  that's about the same result we've been finding every year since 1999.  Between 20-27% of players that are consistently improving over the previous 3 year stretch, continue that trend through their 4th season. The statistical results from the up trending players points to a reversal of the trend for batters!

Conclusion: It's difficult to string 4 consecutive rising seasons,  we find that hitters reach a plateau within 3 or so full seasons...although many of the superior players will continue increase production on and off during their career, the explosive growth experienced early on....dissipates....and the odds of 4 consecutive rising seasons is significantly less than probable after a string of 3. There is a much higher likelihood of decline in those players over 30, below is a split of the players that fall into this category:

Down-Trending Hitters

On draft day, there we've jotted down a list of players that you should avoid based on sentimental value. These are player who have had 3 consecutive  "Dropping Production" seasons. Our research has shown that about 70% of the "over 30 years old" hitters continue the downtrend after 3 consecutive "Production Loss" seasons. (The sample size of the "under 29" is small and the results are inconclusive...thus we are limiting this area of the study to those over 29.)

Conclusion: Although some of the players listed below may have a slight pop up in performance, none are expected to come near the production that once made them superstars. So unless you can draft them at current valuations, they are not worth inflated prices.

Down-Trending Pitchers

60-70% of the "over 30" pitchers continue the downtrend after 3 consecutive "Production Loss" seasons.  The sample size of the "under 30" is small and the results are very inconclusive.

Conclusion: A majority of the "over 30" down trending pitchers listed in the analysis below have been given notice to that they are likely to continue their fall from grace....and may be sold for glue.....

Up-Trending Pitchers

There was not enough of a sample, based on the criteria, to make an observation.

A Final Word

Please understand that some of the Down Trending players are still some of the best in the game at their respective position (ie. Mike Piazza - C ) however they may not be worth an over-inflated draft price, in fact they should be had at a discount. Also realize that some of the declining players are there because of injuries during the past few seasons, but that in itself is a cautionary concern.

Also consider that although players have been slowing declining with their overall average fantasy worth per plate appearance (FPI), players such as Vladimir Guerrero is still expected to produce 15% better than the average counterpart at his position this year.  Certainly he is still an asset on any fantasy team. 

In conclusion, it's difficult to pin point who will continue a trend from this analysis, and who will not. Our projections take much more information into account. As always, a whole lot of it depends on something we can not measure and that is..... desire (contact year, love of the game, etc). However taken as a whole, if I'm debating between two very similar players and one of them falls into one of the negative categories mentioned, then I will certainly side with the percentages.