Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather Note: The two games to keep an eye on tonight are Astros-Yankees and Padres-Cubs. Neither is quite in the "Danger Zone", but currently both games are expected to have a 30-40% chance of rain during game time.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catchers
Best Play
Matt Wieters (BAL) - This is a combination of two of my favorite things to take advantage of: Wieters hitting from the right side of the plate and Joe Saunders pitching to a batter who hits LHP well. Since 2011 Wieters is a .326/.411/.584 hitter when facing LHP, and Joe Saunders has allowed a .364 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
If you aren't as confident as me in Wieters, the next top play has to be Wilin Rosario who has a 1.086 OPS against LHP including an amazing 15 HR in just 147 PA's. The game is not in Colorado but opposing pitcher Ted Lilly is a bit FB risky and has allowed 1.21 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
Cheaper Value Plays
Welington Castillo (CHC) - It's a pretty limited sample size (67 plate appearances) but Castillo has seen LHP well (.399 wOBA). A lot of that is BABIP related but Castillo is very cheap on most sites, and he faces Clayton Richard who has allowed a .340 wOBA to RHB.
Alex Avila (DET) - Avila has a solid .367 wOBA and .196 ISO against RHP since 2011, and today he faces off against Mike Pelfrey who will likely struggle against the Tigers and has had issues against LHB in the past (.340 wOBA allowed).
Another solid play is Jonathan Lucroy facing off against Wandy Rodriguez. Lucroy crushes LHP to the tune of a .998 OPS since 2011. He may be a really good value on sites that don't price splits, I just still prefer Wieters if the price is close because he is facing a worse opposing starting pitcher.
First Base
Top Plays
Prince Fielder (DET) - Fielder is a top play on almost any site, and he is extremely safe by comparison on those sites that dock extra negatives for strikeouts. Fielder, since 2011, has struck out just 12.5% of the time against RHP, and conversely Mike Pelfrey has struck out just 12.5% of LHB. Overall Fielder has a .423 wOBA against RHB in that time span.
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - Tyler Chatwood's .382 wOBA allowed to LHB is one of the worst pitcher splits in play today. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has feasted off of RHP the last couple of years with a .389 wOBA that leads the Dodgers.
Best Value Play
Adam Laroche (WAS) - A slow start has LaRoche's salary deflated on most sites, and today he faces Julio Teheran who has shown pretty much no ability to get LHB out so far in his career. It's obviously not a large sample size, but the numbers are so bad, I think it's okay to read into them (.449 wOBA, 2.42 HR/9).
Other Value Plays
Brandon Moss (OAK) - Moss faces off against Tommy Hanson who has allowed a .334 wOBA and 1.24 HR/9 to LHB since 2010. Overall, Hanson hasn't appeared to regain any sharpness this season so far. He has a 5.41 FIP and has been extremely FB risky (just a 35% GB rate). That makes Moss a high upside play as he hits for a ton of power off of RHP, posting a .315 ISO since the beginning of last year.
Travis Hafner (NYY) - Hafner's price is yet to rise to where it should be on some sites with slower moving salary changes. He has a .381 wOBA against RHP the last couple of years, and opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell has really struggled getting LHB out, allowing a .345 wOBA. With the game at home in Yankee Stadium and Hafner hitting cleanup, he should provide plenty of value.
Second Base
Top Play
Robinson Cano (NYY) - Cano is always in contention for the top 2B play of the day, but today he is a no brainer if the rain stays away and his price is at least somewhat reasonable. Last season at home against RHP Cano had a silly OPS of 1.176. Since 2011 against all RHP Cano has a 1.005 OPS, and as discussed in Hafner's blurb, Lucas Harrell struggles against LHB. I think there's a huge gap between Cano and the second best 2B play of the day today, so it really makes sense to try and pay up for him on most sites.
Value Plays
Daniel Espinosa (WAS) - While Espinosa is actually a pretty poor hitter from the left side of the plate (.304 wOBA), Teheran has just been that bad against LHB that I am willing to play Espinosa at a very cheap price on sites with stricter pricing. Also, consider that in his last matchup against a pitcher who really struggled against LHB (Bronson Arroyo), Espinosa was one of the highest scoring players of the day.
Jose Altuve (HOU) - Altuve has a really high BA against LHP (.344), and today he faces Andy Pettitte who has given up a fairly high .267 BA to RHB. Plus, Pettitte's GB ways may actually work in the speedy Altuve's favor.
Shortstop
Best Plays
JJ Hardy (BAL) - Hardy has a .345 wOBA and .197 ISO against LHP since 2011, which makes him a really strong play today against Joe Saunders who I've already discussed is pretty atrocious against RHB.
Starlin Castro (CHC) - Starlin is off to a slow start and his price keeps falling on a lot of sites. Just like in season long fantasy, DFS players should remain patient with Castro. It's also good timing that his price is near its lowest point with a matchup today against Clayton Richard who has allowed RHB to hit .275 off of him. Castro is over a .300 hitter against southpaws, and it doesn't hurt that the current weather in Chicago shows the wind blowing out to L/LC at 15 mph.
I really don't like too many SS today, and given Hardy and Castro's low prices on most sites, I'll probably be playing 1 of the 2 on every site.
Third Base
Top Play
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - I'm not sure how affordable Cabrera is on a lot of sites, but if you have the room he is clear and away the best 3B option of the day. The R/R matchup pretty much means nothing as Cabrera has hit for a .435 wOBA against same handed pitchers since 2011, and his opposing pitcher today, Mike Pelfrey, likewise does not show too much of a splits difference with a .326 wOBA allowed to RHB that is one of the worse marks of pitchers in action today.
Value Plays
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - Sandoval is the Giants' best hitter against RHP with a .373 wOBA since 2011 and 33 HR in 745 PA's. Today he faces Ian Kennedy who is a solid pitcher but has allowed a .410 slugging percentage to LHB the past few years.
Manny Machado (BAL) - I'd pretty much take any RHB against Joe Saunders at the right price, and Machado should have plenty of opportunities to put up fantasy points hitting second for an Orioles team that I obviously expect to get to Saunders.
Cheap Play
Cody Ransom (CHC) - Ransom has started at 3B the last two times the Cubs faced a LHP, and if that is the case again today against Clayton Richard, Ransom makes for a good cheap value play. For his career, Ransom has shown surprisingly good power against southpaws (.216 ISO), and in his past 126 PA's (2011-present) Ransom has a .296 ISO against LHP. I'm not expecting huge things out of Ransom, but with a really cheap price on some sites, it's a good risk/reward bet especially if the wind is still blowing out to L/LC come game time.
Outfield
Top Plays
Bryce Harper (WAS) - With Teheran's propensity to give up long balls to LHB, Harper is an extremely high upside play today. Teheran has given up 6 HR in 22.1 IP against LHB. Meanwhile Harper, who is absolutely locked in right now (.410 ISO, .517 wOBA, .92 EYE), has 24 homers in just 467 career plate appearances against RHP (good enough for a .262 ISO and .961 OPS).
Ryan Braun (MIL) - I had Braun pegged as my top fantasy player coming into the season, so it's no surprise I have him listed here. He absolutely murders LHP - posting a 1.122 OPS against southpaws since 2011.
Underpriced and a good matchup
Josh Hamilton (LAA) - Hamilton has been scuffling this season, something that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise for those that paid attention to his plate discipline numbers last year. That said, he is priced really low on a lot of sites, and even with his lack of plate discipline, he hits for power against RHP (.320 ISO last year). Plus, he gets Dan Straily who, in a very limited sample size albeit, has yielded some hefty power numbers to LHB (7 HR in 18.1 IP). Also, consider that Brett Anderson (LHP) was originally expected to start this game, so Hamilton is extremely underpriced on sites that price according to splits.
Value Plays
Andre Ethier (LAD) - Ethier has let me down a few times this year when I have listed him in this space, but I'm going back to the well with his price down on some sites and a tantalizing matchup against Tyler Chatwood (.382 wOBA allowed to LHB). Ethier sees RHP pretty well, posting a .77 EYE and .388 wOBA against them since 2011.
Brett Gardner (NYY) - Gardner is a great play tonight (if the rain stays away) leading off against Lucas Harrell who I do not expect to fare well tonight against the Yankees (1st in MLB in wOBA against RHP) in Yankee Stadium. There's a good chance Gardner gets on base multiple times and has a high probability of scoring a run.
Seth Smith (OAK) - As I mentioned in Moss's blurb, Hanson has struggled against LHB, and overall his peripherals have been really bad this season. He could struggle against Oakland's surprisingly successful offense, and that includes Seth Smith (hits third against RHP) who has a .210 ISO and .852 OPS against RHP since 2011.
Alfonso Soriano (CHC) - Soriano is pretty cheap on a lot of sites, and although he's pretty old, he still hits for some good power against southpaws. He has a .215 ISO and 15 HR in 301 PA's over the last three years against LHP, and today he faces Clayton Richard who yields 1.22 HR/9 to RHB.
Other top OF plays include Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Alex Gordon and Michael Cuddyer. Possible cheaper options include Andy Dirks (health dependent), Nolan Reimold and Steve Pearce.
Starting Pitcher
There are a lot of quality starting pitchers tossing today, so scoring format and pricing will be extremely crucial in selecting the right guy(s).
Top Plays
Matt Harvey (NYM) - Harvey is priced like a top play, and he may be worth paying up for today. He has an extremely safe matchup against the Marlins whose .249 wOBA against RHP is easily dead last in MLB. On his young career, Harvey has shown some serious skills including a whopping 31.0 K% that has helped to lead to a sub-3 FIP.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) - I like Strasburg a lot today because he is priced a tad lower than some of the other top options. Also, the matchup is pretty good even if at first glance you see the Braves and think otherwise. The Braves are heavily right handed, especially with Jason Heyward out. They normally only start two LHB, sometimes three (Freeman, Schafer, Francisco), and of those three Freeman is the only real danger. Strasburg has absolutely dominated RHB with just a .242 wOBA allowed and a pretty insane 32.7 K%. While the Braves are fifth in wOBA against RHP, they have struck out at the second highest rate in MLB (25.4%) and are without Jason Heyward. Don't forget about those 17 K's Anibal Sanchez was able to register the other day against Atlanta.
Value Plays
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) - Gallardo is priced on the higher end of the middle tier pitchers on most sites, and he has a favorable matchup. The Pirates had the highest K rate against RHP last year, and this year they rank fourth. Gallardo is a little underpriced due to a slow start but should take advantage of a Pirates team that whiffs a lot and one that he has a good history against (2.78 ERA in 15 games).
Jose Fernandez (MIA) - Fernandez has come back down to earth a bit, but he's really underpriced on some sites. I'll probably take him on multiple SP sites with strict pricing to give myself some cap relief. Despite a couple rough starts, Fernandez's skills (22.4 K%, 52.6 GB%) have him with a solid 3.10 FIP and 3.55 xFIP.
As I said, it's tough to parse through all the pitching plays because site specific format and pricing are going to be really important today. Adam Wainwright at home is a very strong play. Ted Lilly at home could be a sneaky cheap value play if the Rockies are without Troy Tulowitzki. Andy Pettitte looks to have a pretty safe matchup against the Astros, although his price struck me as a tad high on some sites. Jeff Samardzija is another guy with a positive matchup at home. With all these good pitching options, I don't think it makes sense to pay for Matt Cain (in Arizona) or Mat Latos (versus STL).
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