Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
WEATHER NOTE: As of now all the games look like they will get in, but always monitor the situation as closely as you can because we all know how quickly the weather can change.
Catchers
Best Value Play
Salvador Perez (KC) - I hate to keep going back to the well here, but I just cannot get over Perez's salary on most sites. The wind is currently blowing out to LC in KC, and Perez is usually hitting in the 5th spot. He faces off against R.A. Dickey who has struggled with his knuckleballer early on. For those of you playing in early only games, be aware that Perez has caught 6 straight so it's possible today may be a rest day for him.
Solid Cheap Plays
Ryan Hanigan (CIN) - Hanigan should start today against a LHP and with Devin Mesoraco starting the past two games. Hanigan handles LHP really well for his career posting a .363 wOBA and .818 OPS. You know he sees the ball out of southpaw pitchers' hands really well because he has a career 2.35 EYE against them. It doesn't hurt that Hanigan faces LHP Jeff Locke today, who is not very skilled (.344 wOBA allowed to RHB in 44 IP).
Jason Castro (HOU) - Castro hits in the 3-hole against RHP and will likely be there today as the Astros take on Garrett Richards (.397 wOBA allowed to LHB). Castro leads all Astros since 2011 with a .355 wOBA against RHP.
Boom or Bust GPP Play
Tyler Flowers (CHW) - Flowers is a good GPP play on sites where he is very cheap. The wind is blowing out pretty strongly in CLE (better for LHB but should help everyone), and Flowers, despite his problems, has hit 14 HR's in just 311 PA's from 2011-2013. He faces Zach McAllister who has allowed 1.20 HR/9 to RHB in 67.1 IP. The reason I am hesitant to use Flowers in non-GPP lineups, at least the ones that penalize extra for K's, is his propensity to strikeout (career 33.8 K%) paired with McAllister's 21.1 K% against RHB.
First Base
Value Plays
Carlos Pena (HOU) - In 42.2 IP opposing pitcher Garrett Richard has allowed a whopping .397 wOBA to LHB. This is a good matchup for Pena as a result. The contact that LHB make off of Richards is superb (26.4 LD%, 15.2 HR/FB%), and he also walks them 13.2% of the time. This meshes well with Pena who has his contact issues but also walks 16.2% of the time against RHP with a .204 ISO since 2011. For his career, Pena has a 19.8 HR/FB% against RHB.
Yonder Alonso (SD) - Alonso is priced pretty cheaply on most sites, and the Padres cleanup hitter has a solid matchup today. He faces off against Jhoulys Chacin who has gotten crushed by LHB since 2010 (.341 wOBA allowed). Meanwhile, Alonso has a .343 career wOBA against RHP, and I believe that will only rise as his power continues to develop.
If You Can Afford...
Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) - Always expect to see Goldschmidt in this spot at home against LHP unless it's against an elite SP (like Kershaw last night). On his young career, Goldschmidt has a .977 career OPS against LHP with a .277 ISO. It's an extremely small sample size of two starts but so far opposing pitcher Ryu has allowed RHB to elevate the ball (25 LD%, 37.5 FB%) and to make contact (14.3 K%).
Second Base
Solid Value Plays
Neil Walker (PIT) - Walker has a solid career .786 OPS and .342 wOBA against RHP. With him being priced pretty cheaply and not a lot of options I like here, I may end up utilizing him on most sites today. Cueto has been good aginst LHB, but a large gap between his ERA against them and his FIP-xFIP suggests there has been at least some luck to it. Even with Cueto's skills, I'll take a cheap 2B hitting in the 2-hole with good career splits against RHP.
Matt Carpenter (STL) - Carpenter is still priced relatively cheaply on most sites. He is a career .300 hitter with a .380 OBP against RHP. That should play well today out of the 2-hole against Yovani Gallardo who isn't all that good against LHB (.333 wOBA allowed) and has a poor history against the Cardinals.
If You Can Afford...
Robinson Cano (NYY) - Cano is really expensive on most sties, but if you can work him in without taking any "throwaways" at other positions it might be worth is. Second base is looking pretty scarce from my eyes and Cano is a monster at home and versus RHP. In 2011 Cano had a .375 wOBA at homer versus RHP, and last year that number skyrocketed to a level you just don't see: .490.
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Kinsler is also likely expensive but this is the definition of a good splits play. Joe Saunders is absolutely brutal against RHB (.360 wOBA allowed, 1.28 HR/9), and for his career Kinsler has an impressive triple slash of .306/.385/.535 against LHP.
Shortstop
Best Value Play
Starlin Castro (CHC) - Simply put, Castro is just way too cheap everywhere. With Jose Reyes hurt, Castro is likely the second best fantasy SS out there yet he is priced below your average SS on a lot of sites. The matchup is not great (Madison Bumgarner), but the price and splits lineup to make this a really solid value play. Bumgarner is a CY contender against LHB but human against RHB (wOBA allowed is 37 points higher). Meanwhile Castro a career .319 BA against LHP.
Boom or Bust Play
JJ Hardy (BAL) - We've noted in this space before that Hardy hits LHP much better than RHP, but I still like him as a boom or bust play today. For starters, he's cheap on most sites. He still has solid power for a SS against RHP (.181 ISO since 2011), and Hardy is facing off against Phil Hughes who has reverse splits, allowing 1.64 HR/9 against RHB, which is a good sign since a lot of Hardy's value is in his ability to hit the long ball.
Third Base
Must Play
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Don't be fancy here...lock Beltre in at 3B. He is vastly underpriced on most sites to the point where he's almost a must play regardless of matchup. Throw in the fact that he actually has an amazing matchup against Joe Saunders, who I picked on in Ian Kinsler's blurb, and Beltre is absolutely a must play today. The odds don't always work out with these sometimes "obvious" plays, but if you play the odds you will consistently win over the long run. In other words, don't get cute here and overthink it.
I don't want to even list anyone else; play Beltre.
Others: Martin Prado is at home hitting out of the second or third spot for a Diamondbacks team I expect to score several runs today. Ryan Zimmerman is underpriced on some sites. Tim Hudson is killer against RHB for the most part, but he does allow a lot of contact (16.6 K%).
Outfield
Solid Value Plays
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - You know the story by now - take your RHB against Joe Saunders, especially when they are part of an offense as potent as the Rangers. It also doesn't hurt that Nellie is quite adept at hitting LHP for his career, posting a .375 wOBA.
Josh Hamilton (LAA) - Hamilton's slow start has him underpriced on some but not all sites. On the sites he is underpriced, it is difficult not to take him given his .385 wOBA against RHP since 2011. Also, he faces Lucas Harrell who struggles mightily against LHB (.345 wOBA allowed since 2010).
Carlos Beltran (STL) - As I mention in Matt Carpenter's blurb, Gallardo has had his troubled with both LHB and the Cardinals' offense in general. With Beltran off to a slow start and well underpriced on most sites as a result of it, it's difficult not to play him today. Since 2010, Beltran has a .367 wOBA and .203 ISO against RHP.
Peter Bourjos (LAA) - With injuries to Alberto Callaspo and Erick Aybar, the Angels batted Bourjos in the leadoff spot yesterday. If he is there again today, he makes for a really nice value play. His price never started off that high on most sites and has dropped due to a cold start counting stats wise. The Angels offense is going to breakout sooner or later, and Lucas Harrell isn't exactly an intimidating pitcher (ZIPS projected ROS ERA is 5.10). Bourjos has 15-25 ability with enough at bats, so there are multiple ways for him to hit his value. I really like him if he is leading off today.
Starting Pitcher
The Underpriced Studs
Cole Hamels (PHI) - Pay no attention to Hamels' cold start (0-2, 10.97 ERA) and just be glad that he is underpriced as a result of it, just in time for a juicy matchup against the Marlins who are likely without Giancarlo Stanton, far and away their best hitter.
Adam Wainwright (STL) - For his career Wainwright is much better against RHB (.280 wOBA allowed) than he is against LHB (.315 wOBA allowed). This is good because Wainwright is facing a Brewers team that started just one LHB yesterday against a RHP and are missing one of their best hitters (Aramis Ramirez). Also, Wainwright has a career 2.74 ERA at home versus 3.64 on the road. The stars are aligning for this to be a dominant start.
Mispriced Cheap Play
Jose Fernandez (MIA) - While I think Fernandez's fantasy value for this season may be overhyped, he is just flat out mispriced on most daily sites. I checked on several sites and he was priced as or right near the cheapest SP. He will likely have some ups and downs this year, but on sites where you play multiple starting pitchers, it's kind of crazy to not pair Fernandez with either Hamels or Wainwright or both. He only lasted 5 innings in his MLB debut but struck out 8, gave up just 1 ER and 4 combined walks and hits.
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