|
|
February 22nd, 2006
The Spring Rite of
Passage
The first sign of spring
for the baseball enthusiast is the artistic sound of a baseball meeting a
wooden bat. If you ever have the opportunity to go out to a spring site
(either in Florida or Arizona) in late February, I highly recommend the
experience. For the folks that live in the northern portion of the
country, it’s a warming experience and should be considered as a rite of
passage into spring.
Yesterday I visited the
Cubs at their facility in Mesa, Arizona. For those who have never been to
a spring practice, here are the things that immediately strike you:
- Every player
participates in practice, just like in little league; there are no
players who receive special status.
- All the players
have a serious look on their face; from Greg Maddux to the non roster
invitee (The only difference is Maddux is probably thinking about Golf
later in the day, while the non roster is working on the stomach
butterflies.)
- The players shift
from station to station (different fields) conducting as many 15 minute
drills as possible within the days practice. An activity which keeps the
onlookers scrambling as well.
- The players are
organized by position. The groups that form are 1. Pitchers & catchers,
2. Infielders and 3. Outfielders. Each of these groups practice on a
different field.
- After a drill is
complete, every player fetches loose balls and drops them in a bucket
before moving to the next drill station. No million dollar contract can
supercede this regiment.
- None of the
onlookers dare ask the players for anything (no autographs, balls,
etc…), these guys are at work.
When I visit a spring
facility my primary focus is on the pitching staff as this is always the
most volatile component of a baseball team and ultimately a fantasy team.
Here are some player
observations and comments
-
Mark Prior
– For the first time in recent memory, Prior comes into camp healthy.
The Achilles injury that plagued him in 2004 and the start of 2005 is no
longer an issue. I also noticed that Prior has lost weight since the
last time I saw him, which is smart business for those with an Achilles
malady. I asked him at the conclusion of practice how his arm felt and
he responded “it feels great”. Despite the health issues over the last 2
years, Prior has maintained one of the best K/Inning ratios of any
starter over the last 3 years (1.15). At only 26, Prior still has a
world of talent, and could easily once again become the best pitcher in
baseball.
-
Kerry Wood
– Is not participating in the drills per se, as he did not throw the
ball in any fashion today. This really comes as no surprise as the Cubs
have said they don’t expect Wood to be ready by the start of the season.
Although there was speculation that Wood would become the team’s closer,
one of the coaches told me that Wood is the one who wanted no part of
that plan. According to what I’ve read, Wood expects to once again be
himself after he clears this hurdle. Wood has not exceeded 140 innings
since 2003.
-
Greg Maddux
– The master is still the master. He doesn’t look like your typical ball
player…but he never has. Physically he looks identical to when I saw him
last year at this time. There is no hiding the fact that Maddux is on
the inevitable downward spiral in his career. Interestingly there is a
clear trend developing in Greg’s numbers over the last 3 seasons. Take a
look at his first half WHIP numbers from 2002-2005 (1.28, 1.33, 1.33)
verses his second half WHIPs of (1.08, 1.05, 1.14). Clearly Maddux needs
to somehow figure out whether his slow starts are related to his
preseason prep or it’s a “warm weather issue”. Either way, if Maddux can
get off to a fast start we’re talking about a -1.00 shift in ERA.
-
Carlos Zambrano
– Zambrano appears to have gained a few more pounds (and who of us
hasn’t this winter?). Despite this, he has clearly stated his intention
to win a Cy Young award this season. He did participate fully in all
drills today, which is a sign of health early in camps. Zambrano has
pitched over 210 innings each of the last 3 seasons, and there is no
reason to believe that he won’t be an innings monster again this season.
-
Jerome Williams
- Williams is almost guaranteed a starting role as Kerry Wood is not
expected to start the season in the rotation, leaving Williams and Rusch
as the 4th and 5th starters. Williams once a
prized prospect, is looking to bounce back from what was expected to be
coming out season (which instead was marred by the illness and later
death of his father). I like Williams, but he’s a finesse pitcher and
finesse pitchers are rarely successful in their youth. Opponents put the
ball in play at a fairly high rate thanks to a non impressive K/Inning
ratio (.62). Until Williams can master the finer points of pitching,
he’ll be a little more than a .500 pitcher. He’ll be well served in
watching and staying close to Maddux this spring.
-
Wade Miller – I did not see Wade
Miller today, either because he wasn’t out there or I didn’t recognize
him (some players were wearing over shirts without jersey numbers).
Miller, like Wood, is a Wild Card coming off of shoulder surgery and
doesn’t expect to be part of the team until May or June. Miller was once
a perennial 15 game winner (2001 – 2003) and could be an asset to the
team in the latter months of the season. Not a fantasy option on draft
day however.
Other Observations:
-
Juan Pierre looks great in a Cubs
uniform, but it’s not the color or fit of the uniform that leads me to
believe that he’ll have a solid fantasy season. One of the statistical
indicators that lends itself to my expectation is Juan’s Day/Night
Splits. For whatever reason, Pierre is a much more valuable player
during the day. Consider that his 3 year Day/Night split for OBP is .395
verses .338. Although the Cubs no longer play day games exclusively,
they still play more day games than any other team in the majors. I
believe Pierre will be the best thing will happened to the Cubs in 2006,
and I see him having a career season.
-
Derrek Lee looked as determined as
any player I’ve ever seen on the official opening day of Camp. Lee
looked quite perturbed when he only blasted 3 of 10 pitches out of Fitch
Park’s North East field (which is as big as or bigger than most Major
league parks). There is no doubt that Lee will be hard pressed to
replicate the success of his 2005 campaign. His .379 1st half
batting average was an anomaly and it certainly buoyed his year end .335
BA. However the power numbers in the first half vs his second half were
comparable (23 HRs vs 23 HRs) and much can be attributed to his patience
at the plate. His strikeout rate has improved consistently over the last
4 years. Consider that in 2002 he was striking out in 24.2% of his plate
appearances, a percentage that he has chiseled down to a respectable
16.1%. Again I don’t expect the career season he posted in 2005, but I
do expect him to remain one of the top offensive players in the game.
Oh, did I mention contract year?
When I came up from the field and sat down in
the bleachers, it was an opportunity to experience something which is
sometimes lost on the field of play….Chatter among the baseball diehards.
The consensus among the group of Cubbie old timers, a traveling group of
snowbirds that make the annual pilgrimage to Mesa, was that 2B Todd
Walker would get traded before the season starts. Is Jerry Hairston
ready to handle second base on a full time basis? At 29, it’s now or never
and if Hairston has a strong spring, Walker could in fact be history.
For 93 year old Richard (last name unknown),
the spring practice was an opportunity to show off his new girlfriend and
to finally shake off any remaining traces of winter. Richard looked at me
before I left and said “I really like what I see here”. Yep, it’s a
wonderful thing...Baseball is in full bloom!
-Anthony
|
|
National League
With the wind
blowing in Tuesday, manager Bobby Cox said he saw only one ball hit
over the fence during batting practice. That was by
C Jarrod
Saltalamacchia,
the Braves' top-rated prospect. "He's
as good looking a young hitter as has ever walked through here,"
Cox said of the 20-year-old switch-hitting slugger, who will start
the season in Class AA.
Quite an endorsement from a manager
who is pretty rigid on Rookie development. Saltalamacchia may be the
fantasy catcher that most of us have been clamoring for since the
height of Mike Piazza's career. Unless you play in a keeper league,
there is no reason to draft Jarrod in 2006 as McCann, a prospect in
his own right, is expected to hold down the fort.
Marlins'
LHP Scott Olsen,
who is competing for a rotation spot, is returning from elbow
inflammation that sidelined him the second half of last season. On
Tuesday,
Olsen
felt great throwing 35 pitches to catcher Miguel Olivo.
Olsen
mixed in some changeups, a key pitch for him to develop. And he
threw a couple of sliders without feeling any discomfort.
Here's what our
Aaron Gleeman said about Olsen in 2005:
Florida’s sixth-round
pick out of an Illinois high school back in the 2002 draft, Scott
Olsen has established himself as one of the most underrated pitching
prospects around over the last three seasons. After pitching in the
Gulf Coast (rookie) League after signing in 2002, Olsen posted a
2.81 ERA and 129-to-59 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128.1 innings at
low Single-A Greensboro in 2003, and then had a 2.97 ERA and
158-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio at high Single-A Jupiter last
season. He began this season at Double-A Carolina and continued to
impress, going 6-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 14 starts, with a 94-to-27
strikeout-to-walk ratio and just 75 hits allowed in 80.1 innings.
His ERA at Double-A this season is a little higher than you’d like
to see, but take a look at how Olsen’s strikeout rate has improved
as he’s gone up the minor-league ladder 10.53 K/9 in 2005. That’s a
pretty rare pattern and very encouraging. A rare hard-throwing
southpaw, the 6’4” Olsen works in the low-90s and has also improved
his control while boosting his strikeout totals.
The combination of increased strikeouts and decreased walks for a
young pitching prospect coming up through the minor leagues is
pretty amazing, and speaks very well of Olsen’s future. Olsen
has a very bright future. At the very least, he should be a
full-time member of Florida’s rotation at some point during the 2006
season. Gleeman Long-Term Fantasy Grade: B
Manager Willie
Randolph has yet to reveal where in the order
CF Carlos Beltran
will hit, but the most
logical spots seem to be second or third, where he would be
protected by either
David Wright or
Carlos Delgado.
Randolph sounds confident that
Beltran
will bounce back, and with that kind of firepower around him, he
really will have no excuses.
We're counting on a comeback season
for Beltran as well. Unless Betran was part of the steroid
crowd that infiltrated the game,
there is no reason to believe that he won't make a comeback at the
peak age of 28. His hamstring injury had a lot to due with his lack
of production last year, and if he keeps it healthy he should be a
steal on draft day. We are projecting a 22/92/.288 season with 32
stolen bases.
LHP
Paul Maholm
returned to the mound on Tuesday after sitting out the previous
day due to a slight hamstring pull.
Maholm is considered a top prospect,
however I feel that he's being pushed through the system too
quickly. When I look at his minor league numbers, I see a pitcher
who only has a total of 117 innings in AA and AAA combined.
Contained in that stint is a 3.30 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .82
K/Inning ratio. All of these numbers are solid, and impressive for a
23 year old. However they are not dominating. Neither is his
fastball which tops out in the high 80s. I believe he has a very
bright future, but in 2006 I don't see him as anything more than a
middle of the road pitcher who'll have some stellar performances
followed by a few blowups.
RHP Brian Lawrence
played catch yesterday but was unable to pitch his scheduled
bullpen session and said he's probably a few days from being ready
to resume full activities. "Hopefully, I'll be able to extend it out
tomorrow playing catch and then get on the field the day after
that," he said. "I'm just a little slow getting into it, but it'll
be there."
RHP Mark
Prior
spent
a few minutes Tuesday morning responding to an Internet report
that his shoulder is hurting and that he looks “weak and sick.”
Prior
proved that he hasn’t lost his sense of humor.
“It’s a process to get ready for
the season,” he said. “It’s not just show up and go to work. I wish
it was that easy, but it’s not. I feel good. My body feels good. I
don’t feel sick and weak. I don’t tan well.”
Although
manager Jerry Narron won't anoint him the closer, he sees in
RHP
Todd Coffey what he
wants in a closer. "Todd
Coffey throws strikes
and doesn't beat himself," he said. "If you're going to beat him,
you have to do it yourself." Despite the positive vibes,
Coffey
says, "Nobody has told me a thing and I'm here as if I'm trying to
win the 25th spot on the roster." Statistically I don't see how Jerry Narron makes this comment,
realistically I do see the dire straits the team's relief corp is
in. He has had a rough go of it at both the AAA and majors level
where he's posted a 5.20+ ERA and 4.50+ ERA respectively. At times
prior to these experiences at the upper levels, he's come close to
posting a 1 to 1 K/Inning ratio. However this is certainly a work in
progress, and the Reds may be forced to start the season with David
Weathers as their closer. Ryan Wagner is still in the mix,
however he must overcome the butterflies and step up to be
considered.
According to the
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, two sources said the contract signed
by closer
Derrick Turnbow
this week will pay him $488,000, a significant raise from his 2005
salary of $322,000. "I had heard the Brewers take care of their one
to three-year guys,"
Turnbow
said. "Now, I see what they mean." GM Doug Melvin said the Brewers
had a formula for rewarding non-arbitration-eligible players, a
point system that is based on performance. "I think our system is
very fair," Melvin said. "If guys earn it, they should be rewarded."
Things
got easier for
RHP Byung-Hyun Kim
when the Rockies claimed
Sunny Kim
off waivers from Washington on Aug. 7,
making the Kims just the second pair of Korean teammates in
major-league history. "It's a good thing, not just for B.K., but for
me, too," said
Sunny Kim,
whose English is more advanced than his buddy's. "I have never
pitched as good or was happier than when I pitched for Colorado last
year."
The Kims are a non fantasy consideration in
Colorado.
Although he has
played more major-league games in left field,
Ryan Klesko
considers first base
the position where he feels most comfortable.
Klesko
is coming off a season in which he hit .270 and knocked 14 home runs
before the All-Star break, then broke down afterward, finishing with
only 18 homers (a total that led the team) and a career-worst .248
average. The culprit was a neck injury that he suffered diving for a
fly ball in late July and that a winter of rest and acupuncture
sessions were unable to heal completely. "I felt good in the cage
today," Klesko
said. "It should be all right, but it just doesn't disappear.”
RHP
Kevin Correia
reported that
his first bullpen session went well, and he felt no ill effects
of a minor back injury.
According to the North
County Times, "Bochy said he talked to Mike Cameron on
Tuesday about different lineup permutations involving his new center
fielder. "I told him we'll mix it up this spring," Bochy said. "He
may hit at the top of the order, at No. 2, then some at No. 6 and
No. 7. I don't think he's the prototypical No. 2 hitter, but he's
not bad at it, either." Cameron strikes out too often to be
considered ideal in that spot, but he also walks frequently and
could combine with leadoff hitter Dave Roberts to bring excellent
speed to the top of the Padres' order. New York Mets manager Willie
Randolph used Cameron chiefly in the No. 2 hole last season,
although he occupied every position in the lineup (even ninth) at
least once during his two years in New York. ... Bochy also listed
Cameron as a candidate to lead off when Roberts doesn't play. Khalil
Greene, Eric Young and whoever wins the second base job between Mark
Bellhorn and Josh Barfield are also leadoff possibilities."
Dodgers’ owners Frank and Jamie McCourt will announce a two-year
contract extension for Hall of Fame broadcaster
Vin Scully at a press conference set for this afternoon at
Dodger Stadium. He will be entering his 57th consecutive season with
the franchise. According to the National Baseball Hall of Fame,
Scully's tenure with the Dodgers is believed to be the longest of
any broadcaster in sports history with one team. If you are using a
PC with Real Player installed and are in
an appropriate location to play a sound-byte …
here is a spine-tingling clip of one of the great moments in the
history of The Game, as called by Mr. Scully.
American
League
Manny
Ramirez
was given permission by the Red Sox to report to spring training on
March 1,
six days after the team’s first full-squad workout and one day
after MLB’s mandatory reporting date. “Manny
is in Florida completing an extensive training regimen and is
prepared to have an exceptional season,” said a joint statement from
Ramirez
and the team that was released by the Red Sox on Tuesday.
Manny being Manny....
Manager
Joe Maddon said he has been particularly pleased with his first
looks at
LHP Scott Kazmir.
"When I was with the Angels we never saw him pitch against us,"
Maddon said of the 22-year-old left-hander. "I just love the way he
goes about his business. I love the way the ball comes out of his
hand.
I didn't know he's as strong as he is.”
If you take a
look at Kasmir's line from 2005, it doesn't appear very impressive
10 Wins, 1.46 WHIP, 3.77 ERA. However if you look at his development
in the second half, you'll see a young stud in the making (7 Wins,
3.16 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.06 K/Inning ratio). At only 22, Kazmir is a
solid sleeper pick in any draft format. There is a good chance that
he'll throw up quality starts in 60-65% of his starts this year.
Blue Jays
LHP
Ted Lilly is
ahead of schedule from the previous two springs when he showed
up with injuries that put him behind the other pitchers. Last year,
it was a shoulder injury sustained after getting a little
overzealous in his winter workouts. In 2004, it was a wrist that he
injured trying to move a television set.
Lilly
made sure he didn't put himself in harm's way again this past
winter. "I definitely was more conscious of making sure I didn't
take any chances or do something that would set me back," he said.
"I think the last two springs were kind of flukish. It was a few
weird things and bad timing."
Lilly has been on the cusp of stardom
since the 2002 season, however he has yet to fulfill his expectations.
The problem with Lilly is his inconsistency from game to game.
Continually throughout his career he has failed to string together
quality starts. Only worth a very late round flyer if you're willing
to gamble that this will be the season he puts it all together.
RHP
Brandon McCarthy
had thoughts of tacking on a fourth pitch to his repertoire this
spring. The 22-year-old already features the basic fastball and
curve, along with what some insiders consider one of the best
changeups in the American League -- even with less than one year of
Major League experience.
Instead of adding the cutter,
McCarthy
said that he plans to develop a two-seam fastball.
DH
Erubiel Durazo
signed a minor league contract with the Rangers that issued no
promises other than an invitation to big-league spring training. He
is expected to compete for DH at-bats with
David Dellucci
and
Phil Nevin.
Durazo
ranked fifth among AL hitters in average (.321) and was seventh in
on-base percentage (.396) in 2004.
As the Chicago Sun-Times
reports, "Guillen announced in the winter that he would experiment
with dropping
Iguchi
to the No. 6 or 7 spot, with shortstop
Juan
Uribe moving into Iguchi's spot. That experiment starts next week,
when the defending World Series champions begin Cactus League play.
... The key in this experiment will be instilling some discipline into
the free-swinging Uribe. He is expected to arrive in camp a day late
because of visa problems, but Guillen said he should be in before the
weekend. ... Iguchi, who arrived in camp Tuesday, said there was
pressure on him to play for Japan in next month's World Baseball
Classic, but he had his reasons for skipping it."
Aaron Boone
is the Tribe's incumbent at third base and nobody expects 22-year-old
Andy Marte
to ease him out of a job this season.
Marte
is expected to begin the year at Triple-A Buffalo but possibly make
his Indians debut at some point before the schedule plays out.
Marte
is considered by most professional observers to be a can't-miss
hitter, who eventually will make his mark by amassing home runs. That
said,
he also is known to have a hole in his swing, a weakness for
flailing at pitches that miss the outside of the plate. Last year at
Richmond, his first in Triple-A,
Marte
batted .275 with 20 homers and 74 RBI in 389 at-bats.
Sensing the media was going to make an issue
out of
OF Gary Sheffield's
contract expiring when a three-year, $39 million deal expires in
October, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman made a pre-emptive strike to
mollify Sheffield.
Cashman met Sheffield
in the trainer's room and surprised him. "They brought me in and told
me they were probably going to pick the option up,"
Sheffield
said after taking a physical at Legends Field. Asked if yesterday's
talk with Cashman likely will keep him from testing the free agent
market, Sheffield
said, "I only want to play in one place and that still remains the
same. I don't want to play for nobody else but the Yankees."
The Royals plan to
enter their Cactus League schedule with eight starters initially
aligned in four pairs for work every fourth day. “Once our starters
get to five innings,” pitching coach Bob McClure said, “they’ll start
to separate. Right now, they’ll piggyback each other.” Manager Buddy
Bell
said he’d like to have a rotation determined — “if we can” — with
roughly two weeks remaining in camp.
Jeff Mathis
is not one to shy from a challenge, so don't expect the Angels'
rookie catcher to wilt under the pressure of replacing a two-time Gold
Glove Award winner and handling a predominantly veteran pitching staff
on a team with World Series aspirations. "I've been waiting all my
life for this opportunity, and I'm pretty excited," said the 6-foot,
185-pound Mathis,
who hit .276 with 21 home runs and 73 runs batted in at triple-A Salt
Lake last season before spending most of September with the Angels.
It's
clear that
RHP Joel Pineiro
is ahead of most all of the pitchers in game-readiness. "Everything
feels pretty good," said
Pineiro,
who
froze some of the hitters he faced with some decent sliders. "I
started throwing two or three weeks earlier than I would have because
of the WBC."
|
|
Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident
"Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of
the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting
strategy models. Anthony worked as a Quantitative
Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio
models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in
several national publications, including being featured as a
guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website.
He can be seen hanging around the MLB
spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months
of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports
Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in
the same direction.
|
|