One of the indicators that we follow on a
regular basis is Singles Average.
Singles Average (BHIPx%) -
is an indicator which measures the percentage of batted balls
which are
hit into play and are subsequently registered as singles
(Singles/(AB-K-2B-3B-HR)). The typical singles rate for the
entire MLB universe
is around .250. Every year there are
outliers that hit significantly below or significantly
above this average...of these, 80 to 85% reverse this
trend the following season. Using this historical indicator, we can
surmise (based on batting average) which players will have a comeback or drop-off season.
Here is a list of the top 20 Singles
Average hitters from 2005:
1 |
Taveras,W. |
0.324 |
2 |
Jeter,D. |
0.314 |
3 |
Kennedy,A. |
0.306 |
4 |
Young, M. |
0.299 |
5 |
Rodriguez,A. |
0.296 |
6 |
Nunez,A. |
0.296 |
7 |
Podsednik,S. |
0.293 |
8 |
Cabrera,M. |
0.293 |
9 |
Polanco,P. |
0.292 |
10 |
Damon,J. |
0.290 |
11 |
Castillo,L. |
0.289 |
12 |
Figgins,C. |
0.287 |
13 |
Burrell,P. |
0.287 |
14 |
Ellis,M. |
0.284 |
15 |
Casey,S. |
0.282 |
16 |
Grudzielanek,M. |
0.281 |
17 |
Suzuki,I. |
0.280 |
18 |
Clayton,R. |
0.279 |
19 |
Mackowiak,R. |
0.279 |
20 |
Encarnacion,J. |
0.278 |
Since the MLB average
for Singles % is approximately .250, the players listed above are
considerably above this average. Many believe that Singles percentage
is purely based on chance (percentage of balls hit into play that
register as a safely hit single), however our research indicates that
there is a subset of players who consistently have a Singles Average
above the norm. Players who typically tilt the scale on the positive
side (higher than norm Singles %) are frequently players who are speedy and
accumulate a sizable amount of infield hits. Included in this group
from the list above is:
Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednick, Luis Castillo, Chone Figgins, Ichiro
Suzuki.
We do not expect these players to see a
reversion or regression to the mean in their batting average this year
based on this indicator.
However the following players were considerably above
their 3 year average in 2005: Adam Kennedy, Alex Rodriguez, Placido
Polanco, Johnny "nice
year to collect 50+ million" Damon,
Pat Burrell, Sean Casey, & Mark Grudzielanek. At this point you might
be wondering, what does this have to do with Fantasy? Well here
it is: Since Singles Percentage is the most relevant factor of a
player's Batting Average, these players are likely to see a dip in
their BA this season. If you're not using our player projections, it's
probably a good idea to make note of these guys. (to
see more click here)
According
to the
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the departure of Julio Franco will
not leave
1B Adam LaRoche
without a platoon partner. Manager
Bobby Cox indicated that rookie
James Jurries,
who clubbed 21 HR with 72 RBI in 106 games at AAA Richmond in 2005
will be given strong consideration.
LaRoche only hit .188 in 48
ABs last year with only 1 HR and 5 RBIs, expecting more than 435 ABs
from him this year will be a stretch.
The
Miami Herald reports that Manager Joe Girardi plans on batting
3B Miguel Cabrera third
in his batting order. Girardi also said the he will not platoon
1B Mike Jacobs
with
Wes Helms.
We
really like Jacobs, and are projecting 26 HRs from him this year in
slightly less than 500 ABs. Also with Cabrera expected to see a
considerable amount of intentional passes this year, Jacobs could be
the beneficiary of additional RBI opportunities. The only red
flag was his high K/AB ratio of 22% last year and similar numbers in
the minors. Although he hit over .320 in his last 2 full seasons in
the minors, he'll be fortunate to land in the .280s in Dolphins
Stadium this year.
The
New York Post reports that
RHP Victor Zambrano,
who was once highly regarded by this reporter, is not assured of a
rotation spot in 2006. Both the #4 and #5 slots will be open for
competition in Spring Training with
Zambrano, Aaron Heilman, Jose Lima,
Alay Soler and
Yusaku Iriki
being the leading candidates.
These
comments by Randolph are probably more motivational than anything else, the Mets
need Zambrano to step up.
Zambrano has shown spotty flashes
of brilliance over the last few years, but when you consider he's only
maintained a WHIP under 1.48 in only one season (1.44 in 2003), you
begin to wonder...what were they thinking when they traded him for Kasmir?
According to the
Philadelphia Daily News,
RHP Gavin Floyd
said he fully regained his confidence
in November after his first two winter-ball starts for Arecibo in
Puerto Rico. In his next four starts he surrendered just two earned
runs in 25 innings, his best string of success since he led the Double
A Eastern League with a 2.57 ERA in 2004.
Floyd
credits intense tutorials with Johnny
Podres and the fact that he has stopped thinking about mechanics and
concentrated on just throwing the ball at the mitt for his renewed
confidence and effectiveness. Also, manager Charlie Manuel said he
won't use LF
Pat Burrell to spell lefty Ryan Howard at
first base. Burrell played first base in 58 games as a
rookie in 2000 but he told Manuel that he would not feel comfortable
playing there again. For now, the plan is to have utility man
Alex S. Gonzalez spell Howard
against tough lefties. Floyd has sleeper
potential written all over him, he sailed through Single A and
Double AA ball before mechanical issues started to plague his
delivery. Floyd has similar potential to Barry Zito, as his curveball
is explosive and his low to mid nineties fastball can be dominating.
RF Jose Guillen
has been in Viera for two weeks now, rehabbing alone,
in hopes of being ready for Opening Day, after
Nov. 21 surgery for what turned out to be a completely torn labrum
which he played through in 2005.
Expect a slow start out of the gate, as
most position players do not regain full strength for 6-9 months after
labrum surgery.
The
Chicago Sun-Times reports pitching Coach Larry Rothschild said
that RHP Kerry Wood's
rehab schedule doesn't put him on course to pitch in the first two
weeks of the season. In brighter news,
RHP Carlos Zambrano
said he wasn't certain how much weight he lost, but guesses ranged
from 15 to 20 pounds. ''I did it for my back,'' he said. ''When I have
a lot of weight, my back starts bothering me.”
The Cubs are keeping an eye on
RHP Mark Prior’s elbow and his shoulder but say both are
fine. Prior has
appeared in only one Cactus League game the last two springs, but
Rothschild indicated Friday that Prior
would be able to pitch 3-4 games in the exhibition season.
We're keeping a close eye on Prior, who has the
potential to be the best pitcher in Baseball *if* he's fully healthy.
Flashback to 2003 when Prior posted a 1.10 WHIP, 2.43 ERA, and 245 Ks.
At only 25 a healthy Prior can still dominate.
According to the
Cincinnati Enquirer,
LHP Eric Milton's
miserable 2005 season might be traced all the way back to March 2003
when he tore the lateral meniscus in his left knee. After the surgery
that followed, Milton
wasn't able to do the weight work with his legs that he would have
liked to do. As for the Reds’ bullpen situation, rest assured that the
dreaded (by fantasy GMs)
closer by committee will be used in 2006. These words from
36-year-old RHP David
Weathers,
who tore the extensor tendon in his right index finger a month ago
while playing catch at home, and left the Reds’ complex late Thursday
morning with the finger nestled in a small paper cup filled with ice,
sum up the situation perfectly..."We've got closer by committee, and I
just want to be part of that committee."
RHP
Roy Oswalt,
a back-to-back 20-game winner and the Most Valuable Player in last
year's NLCS win over the St. Louis Cardinals,
has been in Florida since Wednesday. He has even thrown five
bullpen sessions in recent weeks, including one to the team at Holmes
Junior College in Mississippi, where
Oswalt
played. Early Pitching Rotation
Projections by insiderbaseball indicate that “Royo,” as
Milo Hamilton affectionately calls this durable warrior, faces a very
nice early set of matchups, mostly at home where he is particularly
effective.
Manager Ned Yost
said it was obvious from watching
2B Rickie Weeks
swing the bat during workouts
that he has completely recovered from thumb surgery. "You watch
Rickie hit and there’s no problem," Yost said. "He's full-go."
How many see a young Gary Sheffield
in Weeks, we certainly do.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that SS Jack Wilson
raised eyebrows around the team's training complex after reporting
nearly 20 pounds heavier than his previous playing weight, with every
fiber of that being hard muscle that was hard won. When Wilson
reported for spring training last season, he was less than two months
removed from an emergency appendectomy that caused him to drop from
193 pounds to 172. He might show a bit more pop than in the past,
given his new bulk, although he does not sound as if he will make that
a priority. "I just want to make sure I'm getting the most out of
myself and not letting my performance slip. Last year, I didn't have a
chance to use my off-season to get in shape. This year, that's not the
case. I'm ready to go."
Wilson should bounce back, but unless your in a
deep league Wilson is probably off your chart.
LHP Ricardo Rincon
will not report until Feb. 25 at the earliest after encountering
problems obtaining a visa in his native Mexico. The delay is doubly
disconcerting to manager Tony La Russa and pitching Coach Dave Duncan
because the veteran Rincon also
has committed to play for Mexico in March in the World Baseball
Classic. Rincon's tardy arrival coupled with another absence could
make the Cardinals more likely to carry three left-handed relievers
into the season, Duncan said.
Manager Bob Melvin
says that
SS Craig Counsell
is the favorite to hit
leadoff, with
3B Chad Tracy
likely to hit third,
LF Luis Gonzalez
cleanup, and
RF Shawn Green
fifth.
RHP Brandon Webb
will be the Opening Day starter. However, Melvin wasn't prepared
to say where
Russ Ortiz,
Miguel
Batista
or
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez
will be slotted in the rotation. Melvin reiterated, though, that
RHP Jose
Valverde
is the closer, saying, "He's certainly did enough to warrant that and
I know he's excited about it."
Valverde is a sleeper closer. If he's healthy, he's pure gold as his
rising fastball is extremely difficult for opposing batters. We are
projecting a big year from Valverde despite the Diamondback woes on
offense.
Manager Clint
Hurdle
said Cory Sullivan or
Clint Barmes would hit
leadoff with the other hitting second, followed by
1B Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, 2B Luis
Gonzalez
and either
Yorvit Torrealba
or
Danny
Ardoin.
Dodgers’
closer,
RHP Eric Gagne
said
there were no ill effects from throwing curveballs Thursday for
the first time since his elbow surgery. "I've been throwing two
bullpens and maybe three a week during the last month, so I'll keep
doing that," he said. "But I'll do some throwing every day. It feels
really good, or I wouldn't be able to throw every day."
SS Rafael Furcal,
recovering from knee surgery, has begun throwing, but still has not
run, hit or taken ground balls.
Gagne
is of course a player who could pay big dividends if he's back to
health. One thing is near certain, he'll never be the dominant reliever
that he once was. There was a lot of speculation that Gagne was a
steroid user during the height of his dominance. This along with all
of the other steroid allegations have never been substantiated.
There had been speculation that
RHP
Clay Hensley
would get a crack at the rotation, but manager Bruce Bochy seems to
have determined that the Texan's chief value right now is in a setup
role in front of
Scott Linebrink
and
Trevor Hoffman.
"Right now, we're going to prepare to use him out of the bullpen. With
Rudy
Seanez
and Aki
Otsuka,
very important pitchers in the bullpen, gone, we need some guys to
help get to
Trevor.”
Head
trainer Stan Conte has reinstituted the more aggressive conditioning
that served the team well over the eight previous years. Conte now
believes the Giants were wrong to restrict
RHP
Armando Benitez's
running last year. The closer had some chronic leg issues, and Mets
and Marlins trainers advised Conte to baby
Benitez
a bit. "We think that may have contributed to his hamstring injury,"
Conte said. Now, rather than jog from the mound to first base 10
times,
Benitez
runs at full speed four times.
American
League
Manager
Sam
Perlozzo has said that
RHP Chris Ray
will be the Orioles' new closer. "We always felt that Chris could
handle it," Orioles executive vice president Mike Flanagan said. "We
think he has the makeup for it, the mentality, and the physical
skills. We saw no apprehension on his part or shaking off pitches to
try to trick somebody last year. It was like, 'Here's my best and
let's go for it.' That's what you like about him."
Ray is a converted starter who dominated in
Double A last year as a closer. In 37 innings last year (Bowie), Ray
only allowed 17 hits and 8 walks while striking out 40. If Ray can cut
down on his BB rate in the majors who could become an above average
closer. We now are projecting 34 Saves from Ray this season.
After
dominating at St. John’s University and two levels of the minors last
season with a biting slider and a fastball regularly measured at 97
mph, 22-year-old
RHP Craig Hansen
(Boston) spent his off-season
developing a changeup that might be the final weapon needed to
establish himself as a big league closer. “I’ve been throwing it in a
couple of bullpens down here and it feels great,”
Hansen
said. “It’s got a lot of movement. I’m pretty happy with it right
now.” For now, he estimates that the changeup’s velocity is in the
low- to mid-80s, which would provide an impressive differential of
10-12 mph from his fastball.
Hansen
is a dark horse to end up as the closer for the Sox at some point in
the season. Not a bad late round reserve pick in deep leagues.
As they did a year
ago after
RHP Mariano Rivera
didn't throw all winter, the Yankees will take it slow with their
premier closer. He likely won't work in an exhibition game until the
second week. As usual,
Rivera
won't need his road uniform during the exhibition slate. "To take
him on a 1 & 1/2-hour bus trip to pitch one inning somewhere doesn't
make any sense to me," said Joe Torre.
RHP
Carl Pavano is 10 days away from throwing off a mound, but
Torre isn't concerned Pavano's back problem will linger.
"I feel better about him this year than at this time last year," Torre
said of his starting pitcher. No matter how good RHP Octavio
Dotel looks in spring training, he will
miss the first two months of the season. "I told him already, it's
June," Torre said of the reliever making it back from Tommy John
surgery last summer.
The closer
situation in Tampa Bay is one of the most muddled ones in all of MLB.
However, at least manager Joe Maddon is
talking like a skipper whose philosophy is that of anointing a go-to 9th
inning stopper, and not the dreaded closer-by-committee. "I like
strong makeup people -- guys who like to get the last three outs,"
Maddon said. He added he likes a guy who might get bumped around one
night
who can put the performance behind him and come back strong his
next outing. Heading into the start of Spring Training,
Chad Orvella,
Shinji Mori,
and Dan
Miceli
are the favorites to land the Rays closer job. The sleeper, if there
is any such thing in this information age, may be
RHP Jesus Colome,
who was injured or in pain for much of the 2005 season and expressed a
desire to be traded last year. "I feel good,"
Colome
said. "Now I don't want a trade. I want to be here. "Now I got an
opportunity to be a closer, maybe. I feel OK now. It's a lot
different."
When the idea of
moving
Eric Hinske
to the outfield first surfaced in the off-season, one scenario had
Frank Catalanotto
moving to right field and
Hinske
platooning in left with
Reed Johnson.
Manager John Gibbons, though,
sees no sense in moving two guys out of position and will put
Hinske
into a platoon with
Alex Rios
in right.
Manager Ozzie
Guillen has named
RHP Mark Buehrle
as his
opening night starter and
RHP Bobby Jenks
as his closer. "Buehrle
is a guy who should be there," Guillen said. "Buehrle
is consistent." Buehrle
is honored. "It's nice because I start the opener, and then the second
game I get my [World Series] ring and enjoy it," he said.
Barring injury,
six of the seven bullpen spots are locked up -- with
Bob
Wickman,
Rafael Betancourt,
Matt Miller,
Fernando Cabrera,
Guillermo Mota
and Scott Sauerbeck
holding them. The seventh spot is up for grabs -- with
Steve Karsay,
Danny Graves,
Jason Davis
and Andrew Brown
the leading candidates to get it.
When
asked
who would be in the bullpen, manager Jim Leyland gave only two
names -- closer
Todd Jones
and LHP
Jamie Walker.
Leyland said he has "13 or 14 candidates" in camp for the undecided
bullpen spots. In the starting rotation,
Jeremy Bonderman,
Kenny
Rogers,
Mike
Maroth
and Nate
Robertson
already hold four of the spots. Leyland has avoided leaning toward top
prospect
Justin Verlander
or anyone else for the fifth spot.
The
Kansas City Star reports the Royals insist that, barring injuries,
veteran newcomers
Scott Elarton
and Mark Redman
are the rotation’s only certainties.
Zack Greinke,
Joe Mays
and Runelvys Hernandez
enter camp as favorites to complete the five-man group, but candidates
also include Jeremy
Affeldt,
Denny Bautista
and J.P. Howell.
The battle between
LHP Francisco Liriano
and RHP Scott Baker
for the fifth spot in the starting pitching rotation
could be the most intriguing part of camp.
Baker
could be more ready to pitch in the majors.
Liriano
needs to prove he consistently can keep command of his fastball. "He
gets a little raging bull out there sometimes," manager Ron Gardenhire
said. "He's got to calm down.” Barring injury to others, whoever loses
this battle will start the season in the minors in order to continue
his development. But both
Liriano
and Baker
could be in the rotation by August, because the Twins are expected to
shop high-priced RHP
Kyle “don’t call me
Lyle” Lohse
before the July 31 trade deadline.
According to the
Los Angeles Times,
RHP Bartolo Colon,
who spent the winter rehabilitating a slight tear in the back of his
shoulder and has thrown two moderate bullpen sessions in camp, remains
100% committed to pitching in the World Baseball Classic despite the
Angels' concerns. Colon,
who won the AL Cy Young Award after going 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA last
season, said he has experienced no ill effects from his injury. Of
course, he hasn't come close to airing out his fastball yet. "I don't
feel anything," Colon
said. "I'm not thinking about it. I'm trying to block it out."
Manager
Ken Macha said
RHP Rich Harden,
who underwent off-season surgery on his left shoulder,
will be limited during fielding drills for the time being, and he
likely will not pitch in any early Cactus League games. "We'll
probably use simulated games to get his pitch count up," Macha
explained. Macha has said he plans to rest veteran
C Jason Kendall
more frequently this year, but
Kendall,
who set an Oakland record with a career-high 146 starts in 2005, said
Saturday that he's prepared as always to play every day.
Kendall,
who batted .277 in his first year with the A's after posting a .306
career average over nine years in Pittsburgh, also said he plans to be
more aggressive at the plate this season, and that he doesn't care
where he bats in the lineup.
The
change in pitching coaches this season, from Bryan Price to Rafael
Chaves, might be the best thing to happen to
RHP
Gil Meche.
They have a history of working well together. Chaves already has made
some significant changes in the way
Meche
goes after hitters. Instead of throwing four-seam fastballs and curves
right off the bat, two-seam fastballs and changeups will be used to
induce early-count contact. And then, when he needs a strikeout or
wants to give hitters a different look, he can drop one of his
sharp-breaking curves on them. "Hopefully, everything will click his
year,"
Meche
said. "I think it's going to be fun." The plan at the start of Spring
Training is for
RHP Felix Hernandez
to
begin the regular season as the No. 5 starter, which means he
would make his 2006 debut against the Athletics at Safeco Field on
April 7 -- the night before his 20th birthday. "I'm a firm believer
that [overuse] can do a lot of damage to young kids by throwing them a
lot of innings," GM Bill Bavasi said. "Until they are 21 or 22, you
really have to be careful." That means taking precautions, such as
limiting the number of pitches thrown and innings pitched.
And
finally...the obligatory “35
year old in the best shape of his life” story.
My pledge to our
premium subscribers
is to provide the most up to date
player projections at their disposal.
For those new to Fantistics, since 1999, we pride ourselves in producing
the most timely and accurate player projections in the industry. According
to an independent
study, our player projections have beat out some of the biggest names
in the baseball industry over the last 2 years. Last year our player
projections out paced both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball HQ in
relevancy. As a statistician, this is something I am very proud of.
Stay tuned, and
remember... “Don’t
Just Play...Dominate!”
-Anthony