February 20th, 2005

Welcome to the start of our preseason player projections blog!

Greetings! With the spring camps set to fully open later this week, we've got a lot of baseball to talk about in the coming 6 weeks. As successful fantasy GMs already know, knowledge is the fundamental ingredient to a successful season. Through these blog notes and the daily player projection updates via our software, I anticipate that each of us will be the most knowledgeable GMs in our draft rooms.

We'll start our preseason journey by highlighting player projection changes as we progress through Spring Training. These changes will be reflected in our player projections software on a daily basis. During the course of the spring, we'll also highlight new features on the site as they become available. The Daily News and Analysis which begins when the season opens, will be much more extensive....our great staff of analysts is set to return at the end of March to get you ready for the start of  the MLB season. When the season starts we'll cover over 100 players (SAMPLE) every morning (more than any other source on the internet) and best of all you'll be able to keep track of your player news stories on one convenient page through our exclusive Player and Stats Tracker.

Now let's start talking Baseball!

  One of the indicators that we follow on a regular basis is Singles Average. Singles Average (BHIPx%) - is an indicator which measures the percentage of batted balls which are hit into play and are subsequently registered as singles (Singles/(AB-K-2B-3B-HR)).  The typical singles rate for the entire MLB universe is around .250. Every year there are outliers that hit significantly below or significantly above this average...of these, 80 to 85% reverse this trend the following season. Using this historical indicator, we can surmise (based on batting average) which players will have a comeback or drop-off season.

Here is a list of the top 20 Singles Average hitters from 2005:

1 Taveras,W. 0.324
2 Jeter,D. 0.314
3 Kennedy,A. 0.306
4 Young, M. 0.299
5 Rodriguez,A. 0.296
6 Nunez,A. 0.296
7 Podsednik,S. 0.293
8 Cabrera,M. 0.293
9 Polanco,P. 0.292
10 Damon,J. 0.290
11 Castillo,L. 0.289
12 Figgins,C. 0.287
13 Burrell,P. 0.287
14 Ellis,M. 0.284
15 Casey,S. 0.282
16 Grudzielanek,M. 0.281
17 Suzuki,I. 0.280
18 Clayton,R. 0.279
19 Mackowiak,R. 0.279
20 Encarnacion,J. 0.278

Since the MLB average for Singles % is approximately .250, the players listed above are considerably above this average. Many believe that Singles percentage is purely based on chance (percentage of balls hit into play that register as a safely hit single), however our research indicates that there is a subset of players who consistently have a Singles Average above the norm. Players who typically tilt the scale on the positive side (higher than norm Singles %) are frequently players who are speedy and accumulate a sizable amount of infield hits. Included in this group from the list above is:  Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednick, Luis Castillo, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki. We do not expect these players to see a reversion or regression to the mean in their batting average this year based on this indicator.

However the following players were considerably above their 3 year average in 2005: Adam Kennedy, Alex Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Johnny "nice year to collect 50+ million" Damon,  Pat Burrell, Sean Casey, & Mark Grudzielanek. At this point you might be wondering, what does this have to do with Fantasy? Well here it is: Since Singles Percentage is the most relevant factor of a player's Batting Average, these players are likely to see a dip in their BA this season. If you're not using our player projections, it's probably a good idea to make note of these guys. (to see more click here)

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the departure of Julio Franco will not leave 1B Adam LaRoche without a platoon partner. Manager Bobby Cox indicated that rookie James Jurries, who clubbed 21 HR with 72 RBI in 106 games at AAA Richmond in 2005 will be given strong consideration LaRoche only hit .188 in 48 ABs last year with only 1 HR and 5 RBIs, expecting more than 435 ABs from him this year will be a stretch.

The Miami Herald reports that Manager Joe Girardi plans on batting 3B Miguel Cabrera third in his batting order. Girardi also said the he will not platoon 1B Mike Jacobs with Wes Helms.  We really like Jacobs, and are projecting 26 HRs from him this year in slightly less than 500 ABs. Also with Cabrera expected to see a considerable amount of intentional passes this year, Jacobs could be the beneficiary of additional RBI opportunities.  The only red flag was his high K/AB ratio of 22% last year and similar numbers in the minors. Although he hit over .320 in his last 2 full seasons in the minors, he'll be fortunate to land in the .280s in Dolphins Stadium this year.

The New York Post reports that RHP Victor Zambrano, who was once highly regarded by this reporter, is not assured of a rotation spot in 2006. Both the #4 and #5 slots will be open for competition in Spring Training with Zambrano, Aaron Heilman, Jose Lima, Alay Soler and Yusaku Iriki being the leading candidates. These comments by Randolph are probably more motivational than anything else, the Mets need Zambrano to step up. Zambrano has shown spotty flashes of brilliance over the last few years, but when you consider he's only maintained a WHIP under 1.48 in only one season (1.44 in 2003), you begin to wonder...what were they thinking when they traded him for Kasmir?

According to the Philadelphia Daily News, RHP Gavin Floyd said he fully regained his confidence in November after his first two winter-ball starts for Arecibo in Puerto Rico. In his next four starts he surrendered just two earned runs in 25 innings, his best string of success since he led the Double A Eastern League with a 2.57 ERA in 2004. Floyd credits intense tutorials with Johnny Podres and the fact that he has stopped thinking about mechanics and concentrated on just throwing the ball at the mitt for his renewed confidence and effectiveness. Also, manager Charlie Manuel said he won't use LF Pat Burrell to spell lefty Ryan Howard at first base. Burrell played first base in 58 games as a rookie in 2000 but he told Manuel that he would not feel comfortable playing there again. For now, the plan is to have utility man Alex S. Gonzalez spell Howard against tough lefties. Floyd has sleeper potential written all over him,  he sailed through Single A and Double AA ball before mechanical issues started to plague his delivery. Floyd has similar potential to Barry Zito, as his curveball is explosive and his low to mid nineties fastball can be dominating.

RF Jose Guillen has been in Viera for two weeks now, rehabbing alone, in hopes of being ready for Opening Day, after Nov. 21 surgery for what turned out to be a completely torn labrum which he played through in 2005. Expect a slow start out of the gate, as most position players do not regain full strength for 6-9 months after labrum surgery.

The Chicago Sun-Times reports pitching Coach Larry Rothschild said that RHP Kerry Wood's rehab schedule doesn't put him on course to pitch in the first two weeks of the season. In brighter news, RHP Carlos Zambrano said he wasn't certain how much weight he lost, but guesses ranged from 15 to 20 pounds. ''I did it for my back,'' he said. ''When I have a lot of weight, my back starts bothering me.” The Cubs are keeping an eye on RHP Mark Prior’s elbow and his shoulder but say both are fine. Prior has appeared in only one Cactus League game the last two springs, but Rothschild indicated Friday that Prior would be able to pitch 3-4 games in the exhibition season. We're keeping a close eye on Prior, who has the potential to be the best pitcher in Baseball *if* he's fully healthy. Flashback to 2003 when Prior posted a 1.10 WHIP, 2.43 ERA, and 245 Ks. At only 25 a healthy Prior can still dominate.

According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, LHP Eric Milton's miserable 2005 season might be traced all the way back to March 2003 when he tore the lateral meniscus in his left knee. After the surgery that followed, Milton wasn't able to do the weight work with his legs that he would have liked to do. As for the Reds’ bullpen situation, rest assured that the dreaded (by fantasy GMs) closer by committee will be used in 2006. These words from 36-year-old RHP David Weathers, who tore the extensor tendon in his right index finger a month ago while playing catch at home, and left the Reds’ complex late Thursday morning with the finger nestled in a small paper cup filled with ice, sum up the situation perfectly..."We've got closer by committee, and I just want to be part of that committee."

RHP Roy Oswalt, a back-to-back 20-game winner and the Most Valuable Player in last year's NLCS win over the St. Louis Cardinals, has been in Florida since Wednesday. He has even thrown five bullpen sessions in recent weeks, including one to the team at Holmes Junior College in Mississippi, where Oswalt played. Early Pitching Rotation Projections by insiderbaseball indicate that “Royo,” as Milo Hamilton affectionately calls this durable warrior, faces a very nice early set of matchups, mostly at home where he is particularly effective.

Manager Ned Yost said it was obvious from watching 2B Rickie Weeks swing the bat during workouts that he has completely recovered from thumb surgery. "You watch Rickie hit and there’s no problem," Yost said. "He's full-go." How many see a young Gary Sheffield in Weeks, we certainly do.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that SS Jack Wilson raised eyebrows around the team's training complex after reporting nearly 20 pounds heavier than his previous playing weight, with every fiber of that being hard muscle that was hard won. When Wilson reported for spring training last season, he was less than two months removed from an emergency appendectomy that caused him to drop from 193 pounds to 172. He might show a bit more pop than in the past, given his new bulk, although he does not sound as if he will make that a priority. "I just want to make sure I'm getting the most out of myself and not letting my performance slip. Last year, I didn't have a chance to use my off-season to get in shape. This year, that's not the case. I'm ready to go." Wilson should bounce back, but unless your in a deep league Wilson is probably off your chart.

LHP Ricardo Rincon will not report until Feb. 25 at the earliest after encountering problems obtaining a visa in his native Mexico. The delay is doubly disconcerting to manager Tony La Russa and pitching Coach Dave Duncan because the veteran Rincon also has committed to play for Mexico in March in the World Baseball Classic. Rincon's tardy arrival coupled with another absence could make the Cardinals more likely to carry three left-handed relievers into the season, Duncan said.

Manager Bob Melvin says that SS Craig Counsell is the favorite to hit leadoff, with 3B Chad Tracy likely to hit third, LF Luis Gonzalez cleanup, and RF Shawn Green fifth. RHP Brandon Webb will be the Opening Day starter. However, Melvin wasn't prepared to say where Russ Ortiz, Miguel Batista or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez will be slotted in the rotation. Melvin reiterated, though, that RHP Jose Valverde is the closer, saying, "He's certainly did enough to warrant that and I know he's excited about it." Valverde is a sleeper closer. If he's healthy, he's pure gold as his rising fastball is extremely difficult for opposing batters. We are projecting a big year from Valverde despite the Diamondback woes on offense.

Manager Clint Hurdle said Cory Sullivan or Clint Barmes would hit leadoff with the other hitting second, followed by 1B Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, 2B Luis Gonzalez and either Yorvit Torrealba or Danny Ardoin.

Dodgers’ closer, RHP Eric Gagne said there were no ill effects from throwing curveballs Thursday for the first time since his elbow surgery. "I've been throwing two bullpens and maybe three a week during the last month, so I'll keep doing that," he said. "But I'll do some throwing every day. It feels really good, or I wouldn't be able to throw every day." SS Rafael Furcal, recovering from knee surgery, has begun throwing, but still has not run, hit or taken ground balls.   Gagne is of course a player who could pay big dividends if he's back to health. One thing is near certain, he'll never be the dominant reliever that he once was. There was a lot of speculation that Gagne was a steroid user during the height of his dominance. This along with all of the other steroid allegations have never been substantiated. 

There had been speculation that RHP Clay Hensley would get a crack at the rotation, but manager Bruce Bochy seems to have determined that the Texan's chief value right now is in a setup role in front of Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman. "Right now, we're going to prepare to use him out of the bullpen. With Rudy Seanez and Aki Otsuka, very important pitchers in the bullpen, gone, we need some guys to help get to Trevor.”

Head trainer Stan Conte has reinstituted the more aggressive conditioning that served the team well over the eight previous years. Conte now believes the Giants were wrong to restrict RHP Armando Benitez's running last year. The closer had some chronic leg issues, and Mets and Marlins trainers advised Conte to baby Benitez a bit. "We think that may have contributed to his hamstring injury," Conte said. Now, rather than jog from the mound to first base 10 times, Benitez runs at full speed four times.

American League

Manager Sam Perlozzo has said that RHP Chris Ray will be the Orioles' new closer. "We always felt that Chris could handle it," Orioles executive vice president Mike Flanagan said. "We think he has the makeup for it, the mentality, and the physical skills. We saw no apprehension on his part or shaking off pitches to try to trick somebody last year. It was like, 'Here's my best and let's go for it.' That's what you like about him." Ray is a converted starter who dominated in Double A last year as a closer. In 37 innings last year (Bowie), Ray only allowed 17 hits and 8 walks while striking out 40. If Ray can cut down on his BB rate in the majors who could become an above average closer. We now are projecting 34 Saves from Ray this season.

After dominating at St. John’s University and two levels of the minors last season with a biting slider and a fastball regularly measured at 97 mph, 22-year-old RHP Craig Hansen (Boston) spent his off-season developing a changeup that might be the final weapon needed to establish himself as a big league closer. “I’ve been throwing it in a couple of bullpens down here and it feels great,” Hansen said. “It’s got a lot of movement. I’m pretty happy with it right now.” For now, he estimates that the changeup’s velocity is in the low- to mid-80s, which would provide an impressive differential of 10-12 mph from his fastball. Hansen is a dark horse to end up as the closer for the Sox at some point in the season. Not a bad late round reserve pick in deep leagues.

As they did a year ago after RHP Mariano Rivera didn't throw all winter, the Yankees will take it slow with their premier closer. He likely won't work in an exhibition game until the second week. As usual, Rivera won't need his road uniform during the exhibition slate. "To take him on a 1 & 1/2-hour bus trip to pitch one inning somewhere doesn't make any sense to me," said Joe Torre. RHP Carl Pavano is 10 days away from throwing off a mound, but Torre isn't concerned Pavano's back problem will linger. "I feel better about him this year than at this time last year," Torre said of his starting pitcher. No matter how good RHP Octavio Dotel looks in spring training, he will miss the first two months of the season. "I told him already, it's June," Torre said of the reliever making it back from Tommy John surgery last summer.

The closer situation in Tampa Bay is one of the most muddled ones in all of MLB. However, at least manager Joe Maddon is talking like a skipper whose philosophy is that of anointing a go-to 9th inning stopper, and not the dreaded closer-by-committee. "I like strong makeup people -- guys who like to get the last three outs," Maddon said. He added he likes a guy who might get bumped around one night who can put the performance behind him and come back strong his next outing. Heading into the start of Spring Training, Chad Orvella, Shinji Mori, and Dan Miceli are the favorites to land the Rays closer job. The sleeper, if there is any such thing in this information age, may be RHP Jesus Colome, who was injured or in pain for much of the 2005 season and expressed a desire to be traded last year. "I feel good," Colome said. "Now I don't want a trade. I want to be here. "Now I got an opportunity to be a closer, maybe. I feel OK now. It's a lot different."

When the idea of moving Eric Hinske to the outfield first surfaced in the off-season, one scenario had Frank Catalanotto moving to right field and Hinske platooning in left with Reed Johnson. Manager John Gibbons, though, sees no sense in moving two guys out of position and will put Hinske into a platoon with Alex Rios in right.

 Manager Ozzie Guillen has named RHP Mark Buehrle as his opening night starter and RHP Bobby Jenks as his closer. "Buehrle is a guy who should be there," Guillen said. "Buehrle is consistent." Buehrle is honored. "It's nice because I start the opener, and then the second game I get my [World Series] ring and enjoy it," he said.

 Barring injury, six of the seven bullpen spots are locked up -- with Bob Wickman, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Miller, Fernando Cabrera, Guillermo Mota and Scott Sauerbeck holding them. The seventh spot is up for grabs -- with Steve Karsay, Danny Graves, Jason Davis and Andrew Brown the leading candidates to get it.

 When asked who would be in the bullpen, manager Jim Leyland gave only two names -- closer Todd Jones and LHP Jamie Walker. Leyland said he has "13 or 14 candidates" in camp for the undecided bullpen spots. In the starting rotation, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers, Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson already hold four of the spots. Leyland has avoided leaning toward top prospect Justin Verlander or anyone else for the fifth spot.

 The Kansas City Star reports the Royals insist that, barring injuries, veteran newcomers Scott Elarton and Mark Redman are the rotation’s only certainties. Zack Greinke, Joe Mays and Runelvys Hernandez enter camp as favorites to complete the five-man group, but candidates also include Jeremy Affeldt, Denny Bautista and J.P. Howell.

 The battle between LHP Francisco Liriano and RHP Scott Baker for the fifth spot in the starting pitching rotation could be the most intriguing part of camp. Baker could be more ready to pitch in the majors. Liriano needs to prove he consistently can keep command of his fastball. "He gets a little raging bull out there sometimes," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He's got to calm down.” Barring injury to others, whoever loses this battle will start the season in the minors in order to continue his development. But both Liriano and Baker could be in the rotation by August, because the Twins are expected to shop high-priced RHP Kyle “don’t call me Lyle” Lohse before the July 31 trade deadline.

 According to the Los Angeles Times, RHP Bartolo Colon, who spent the winter rehabilitating a slight tear in the back of his shoulder and has thrown two moderate bullpen sessions in camp, remains 100% committed to pitching in the World Baseball Classic despite the Angels' concerns. Colon, who won the AL Cy Young Award after going 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA last season, said he has experienced no ill effects from his injury. Of course, he hasn't come close to airing out his fastball yet. "I don't feel anything," Colon said. "I'm not thinking about it. I'm trying to block it out."

 Manager Ken Macha said RHP Rich Harden, who underwent off-season surgery on his left shoulder, will be limited during fielding drills for the time being, and he likely will not pitch in any early Cactus League games. "We'll probably use simulated games to get his pitch count up," Macha explained. Macha has said he plans to rest veteran C Jason Kendall more frequently this year, but Kendall, who set an Oakland record with a career-high 146 starts in 2005, said Saturday that he's prepared as always to play every day. Kendall, who batted .277 in his first year with the A's after posting a .306 career average over nine years in Pittsburgh, also said he plans to be more aggressive at the plate this season, and that he doesn't care where he bats in the lineup.

 The change in pitching coaches this season, from Bryan Price to Rafael Chaves, might be the best thing to happen to RHP Gil Meche. They have a history of working well together. Chaves already has made some significant changes in the way Meche goes after hitters. Instead of throwing four-seam fastballs and curves right off the bat, two-seam fastballs and changeups will be used to induce early-count contact. And then, when he needs a strikeout or wants to give hitters a different look, he can drop one of his sharp-breaking curves on them. "Hopefully, everything will click his year," Meche said. "I think it's going to be fun." The plan at the start of Spring Training is for RHP Felix Hernandez to begin the regular season as the No. 5 starter, which means he would make his 2006 debut against the Athletics at Safeco Field on April 7 -- the night before his 20th birthday. "I'm a firm believer that [overuse] can do a lot of damage to young kids by throwing them a lot of innings," GM Bill Bavasi said. "Until they are 21 or 22, you really have to be careful." That means taking precautions, such as limiting the number of pitches thrown and innings pitched.

 And finally...the obligatory “35 year old in the best shape of his life” story.

My pledge to our premium subscribers is to provide the most up to date  player projections at their disposal. For those new to Fantistics, since 1999, we pride ourselves in producing the most timely and accurate player projections in the industry. According to an independent study, our player projections have beat out some of the biggest names in the baseball industry over the last 2 years. Last year our player projections out paced both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball HQ in relevancy. As a statistician, this is something I am very proud of.

Stay tuned, and remember... Don’t Just Play...Dominate!”  -Anthony

 

 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. Anthony  worked as a Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. He can be seen hanging around the MLB spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.


 
   
   
   
   
   
 

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